** Market is hard to change in the short term

In the first half of the year, the domestic market was up and down, and an “n” shaped price fluctuation trend emerged. The current price has fallen below the level of the beginning of the year and the overall situation has fallen into a trough. In late July, the average acid price of 98% ** in East China was between 380 and 500 yuan (ton price, the same below), 98% flue gas prices in North China were between 300 and 400 yuan, and 98% in South China The average price is 360-380 yuan. The reporter recently interviewed major manufacturers across the country and learned that the market is difficult to change in the short term due to lack of support for upstream costs, oversupply and severe imbalance in supply and demand, declining downstream demand, and difficulty in improving the macroeconomic situation. Sluggish trend.

- Upstream ** support fatigue At present, China's ** manufacturing is mainly divided into ** acid, smelting flue gas acid, * iron ore acid three major categories, the structure of the proportion of ** acid production to the total production of nearly 50%,*The proportion of iron ore acid production is about 25%, and the proportion of smelter flue gas acid production is about 15%.

** Acid production occupies half of the country's manufacturing and is a barometer of changes in the market. China's resources are seriously deficient, and foreign dependence is not less than 60%, and it is difficult to effectively mitigate in recent years. Since the beginning of this year, owing to the continuous declining international economic situation, the international market has continued to decline. It is understood that in mid-July, the international price of external disks has fallen to nearly 215 US dollars, a year-on-year decline of more than 12%. It can be predicted that in the short-term future, the price of ** will inevitably be hampered by the price of raw materials in the upstream market, and it will take time to warm up the market.

——Increase in supply of new projects put into production Similar to many chemical products, China's ** industry is also a sector with excess capacity. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of 2011, the domestic production capacity of ** has been close to 90 million tons, and it is expected that by 2015 China's production capacity will be close to 100 million tons. According to demand estimates, the excess annual production capacity will reach 10 million tons, and the domestic market will be in a state of serious oversupply for a long time.

Since the beginning of this year, the problem of the decline in profitability of single-product manufacturing enterprises has become prominent. In the first half of the year, some companies suffered serious losses, and several times they stopped producing safe havens, making it difficult to maintain normal production and operations. In the case of this unfavorable supply and demand situation, multiple new projects will continue to be put into production in the second half of the year. Including Liaoning Dashiqiao Shengma Chemical Co., Ltd. in Northeast China, producing 120,000 tons of iron ore ore, and Fushun Hongtongshan Copper Company producing 60,000 tons of smelting flue gas to produce acid; East China's Jiangsu Lanfeng Bio-Chemical Co. Annual production of 400,000 tons ** acid, Wuxi Green Aipu Chemical Company annual production of 600,000 tons ** acid, Shandong Mingrui Chemical Group annual output of 300,000 tons * iron ore acid production; Central China's Hubei Fuchi Chemical The company produces 60,000 tons of acid per year, and the Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter Group produces 150,000 tons of smelting flue gas to make acid.

—— Downstream consumption demand decreases or does not increase ** Demand mainly includes agriculture and industry. The demand for phosphorus and compound fertilizer accounts for about 70% of consumption, and industry (light industry, petroleum, metallurgy, fine chemicals, etc.) accounts for Nearly 30%.

In recent months, ** production companies have been looking forward to the same as in previous years, the export of off-season low-grade fertilizer can increase consumption, but unexpectedly, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other places from May to July ** consumption does not increase, The price has also witnessed an embarrassing situation that has once again declined. It is understood that, unlike the previous peak export season of phosphate fertilizers, this year a large number of sources are waiting for the port. As of late July, China and South America, Latin America, Oceania, only a small number of orders have been traded. Excluding ocean freight, tariffs and domestic freight, only the ex-factory price is between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan. At the same time, the domestic demand for phosphate fertilizers also declined, and the overall operating rate of fertilizer companies remained at around 70%. The prices were low and the purchasing enthusiasm for raw materials** was not high.

In terms of industrial acid, the domestic and international environment is poor, and commodity prices have generally declined. Most acid-chemical companies are struggling to operate, and it is difficult to support ** demand. The industry generally expects that the imbalance between supply and demand will continue.

- The international trade environment continues to deteriorate. Compared with last year, new changes have taken place in China's imports and exports. According to statistics, from January to April this year, China's total imports of 345 million tons, basically the same with last year's 379,000 tons. From January to April this year, the total export volume of China's ** was only 1,292 tons, which is very different from the 141,000 tons in the same period of last year. From May to July, China’s export to China still did not change. The lack of exports exacerbated the oversupply in the domestic market and contributed to the decline in prices.

In the third quarter, the global economy, including China, is not expected to be expected in the future. The market conditions for chemical products generally fall to the bottom, and the ** market is also difficult to stay out of the market. The market is still under pressure in the short term.

The reporter learned from the interview that the industry generally believes that in the third quarter of this year, the market may continue its weak consolidation, and the area of ​​shut-down and maintenance hedge establishments may increase. China's ** industry development is facing the challenges of accelerating structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, and further raising the level of industrial concentration and technical equipment has become a top priority. Large enterprises with comprehensive strength and profitability will accelerate the pace of mergers, restructurings, and acquisitions of small and medium-sized enterprises, and at the same time refine management, deepen internal potential, reduce costs, and increase market competitiveness.