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[Shanghai Aluminum Weekly Review] Shanghai aluminum cowhide consolidation trading Hing Shing sharpen this week, spot aluminum prices continue to maintain a high side of the trend, closing a moderate increase. Looking ahead, the price of aluminum may stabilize at the 15800 line under the influence of factors such as prosperous consumption and high alumina prices. However, it is believed that with the passage of time, more than 16,000 pressures will gradually appear. From a week's price, the price was 15900 on Friday, 15830 on Monday, 15780 on Tuesday, and gradually rose to 15830 on Wednesday and 15850 on Thursday. However, relative to August, the current aluminum price has risen by nearly 1,000 points from 15,000, mainly due to the following: 1. Supply and demand conditions From the output data in recent months, due to the summer is subject to power shortages, some aluminum plants Production was suspended or semi-discontinued. As a result, the actual production in July decreased to 48.61 million tons, but the consumption amounted to 46.8 million tons, a surplus of 45.9 million tons, during which the aluminum price was supported by the reduction in supply. Really rising, first of all because long-term domestic low prices with London make aluminum ingot exports profitable, so a large number of exports, making the short-term shortage of supply in the spot market, while the manufacturers' expectations are improving and intensifying The price increase. Secondly, the state’s actions to limit overloading have made the railway transportation capacity very tight. The aluminum spot supply has appeared regional imbalances. The transport bottleneck has constrained the arrival of primary aluminum, objectively reducing the volume of Shanghai aluminum ingots, and the price has risen. 2. The change in the price of alumina alumina is crucial to the change in the cost of aluminum, so the recent rise in alumina is another factor in the rise in spot aluminum. The current spot alumina import prices began to rebound, the previous low import alumina price was 300 US dollars / ton, in January quoted at 350 US dollars / ton, the current offer is 400 US dollars / ton, the lower point rose by nearly 33 %. In addition, the continuous decline in alumina stocks at the port has made it possible for alumina prices to rise further. At present, China's main port alumina inventory is about 1 million tons, about 1.1 million tons in mid-July, and this occurred in the off-season consumption period, with the gradual increase in consumption, the port alumina inventory has further decline. It is precisely because of the rise in alumina prices that temporary imbalances in supply have led to a lot of increase in spot aluminum. However, due to the new aluminum plant will be gradually put into operation in the second half of the year, it is an indisputable fact that production capacity will increase, and electricity will be used in summer. At the end of the peak period, the cost of electricity is expected to decline. As a result, the cost of aluminum ingots has a downward trend. As a result of the offset between the two, the current costs will stabilize at the 15800 line, but the expansion of production capacity will inevitably result in competitive pricing, so once it is appropriate the price of. For example, prices above 16,000 will lead to greater pressure to maintain value, so there is little room for upward movement and the bottom is close to the cost area of ​​15,600. Aluminum producers are reluctant to sell at a loss, so the near-term dilemma of consolidation will be maintained. Looking at the trend of Shanghai Aluminum this week, the same pattern of cowhide consolidation was seen, which was lower by 15700 in one week. The higher level of 16100 was basically maintained at 15900. The volume of transactions dropped drastically, and the amount of empty stocks also gradually decreased. During this period, the fluctuations mainly fluctuate with the fluctuation of Shanghai copper. The number of participants gradually decreased, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was stronger. From a long-term point of view, the capacity of China's alumina plants also has an expansion trend. The expansion of primary aluminum production capacity is inevitable in the second half of the year, so excess production capacity will eventually be reflected, and 16,000 or more is a good short-sales point. It is recommended to wait for high points to be thrown. Empty opportunity. However, due to the lack of fundamental changes in recent days, the aluminum price will remain unchanged.
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