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Since entering the year 2005, compared with the booming aluminum, Shanghai aluminum has shown a significant stagflation and stagnation trend, and it is far from the London Aluminum in terms of fluctuation. The difference in the performance of the two markets is so great that the root cause is that the spot pressure on the Shanghai aluminum market is too heavy. Shanghai aluminum market reflects the supply and demand of the domestic aluminum market. Before the New Year's Day, Shanghai aluminum stocks stood at 60,377 tons, while the Shanghai aluminum stocks announced on February 25 rose to 88,894 tons. Most of the increase in 28,517 tons was after the Spring Festival. Since the Spring Festival, until today, the aluminum market has risen by more than 110 points and hit a record high, Shanghai Aluminum did not follow Lennovo's record high, but only fluctuate within a 250-point range. Such strong contrast is sufficient to see Shanghai Aluminum. The spot market pressure is heavy. The London aluminium price reflects international prices and is determined by the global supply and demand relationship. Before the New Year's Day, the aluminum inventory was 694,750 tons, while the aluminum inventory released on February 25 was down to 604,000 tons, and the inventory was reduced by 90,750 tons. The overall performance was a sustained and stable reduction. From the above analysis, it can be seen that the market reflecting two different supply and demand relationships determines the performance of two different market prices, but since last week, the spot pressure on the Shanghai aluminum market has shown signs of abating. On March 4, the aluminum inventories announced by the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3,392 tons to 85,502 tons. Meanwhile, aluminum inventory continued to decrease by 16,775 tons to 587,225 tons last week. Thus, the aluminum inventory of the two exchanges totaled 672,727 tons, which is more than New Year's Day. The previous 755,127 tons decreased by 82,400 tons. This continued improvement in the fundamentals determines that the general direction of the aluminum market in the latter period is to oscillate upwards. China has cancelled the 8% export tax rebate on aluminum from January 1 this year, and imposed a 5% export tax on aluminum exports. This policy has changed the supply and demand relationship between domestic and international aluminum markets, and the global aluminum market has clearly entered the supply gap. stage. On February 14th, Australia’s Macquarie Bank stated that China’s alumina imports this year will increase to 7.5 million tons, which is higher than last year’s imports of about 6 million tons, which indicates the current global alumina market supply situation. Will continue to be nervous. Last year, the average sales price of alumina has been a better year since 1990, and alumina prices have risen to a high level since 1993. Take Australia as an example, its spot alumina FOB price has been held steady at around 400 U.S. dollars. Macquarie believes that alumina prices may rise back to the high of $500 last year. We know that Australia's aluminum resources are extremely abundant, with its aluminum mine accounting for 18.9% of the world's total, and the production of alumina is exceptionally high. As Australia has rich mineral reserves, huge production capacity, a large number of products for export, and good political, economic, and trade relations with other countries, Australia has become an ideal alumina importer worldwide. The alumina price should reflect the general trend of current international alumina prices. In China, the two key factors that determine the price of aluminum ingots are: alumina prices and electricity costs, and their proportions in the cost of aluminum ingots are about 45% and 32%, respectively. It is an indisputable fact that our country's electricity supply is still relatively tight this year. However, the price of alumina remains high, which determines that it is unlikely that aluminum ingots will drop sharply this year. With the tight supply and demand relationship in the global aluminum market further tightening, Shanghai Aluminum's price is still very likely to maintain its upward oscillation. From a technical point of view, Shanghai Aluminum’s major contracts are currently in a state of readying after a long period of narrow and oscillatory consolidation. After its long-term entanglement, the average series has shown signs of divergence. In the financial speculation market, the relationship between the average line series and the price is "divided for a long time and long for a long time." Combined with the current fundamentals of the aluminum market, it can be assumed that there is a greater possibility that the market outlook will diverge upward. Once the moving averages diverge, it will surely form a long queue for the moving average system, and will also provide strong technical support for the current price to break through the long-term consolidation pattern and accelerate the rise.
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