Xue Jing, director of the statistics department of China Electricity Council, believes that the overall power generation situation in March this year is not clear, and it is still at the bottom of the power generation.
The data shows that the average daily power generation in the second half of March decreased by 2.08% compared with the same period of last year. The average daily power generation in March decreased by 0.71% year-on-year. The average daily power generation decreased by 1.89%. The regional power grids within the scope of the State Grid Corporation that call the power growth rate higher than the national average are: East China (0.09%) and Central China (1.76%).
Zhang Lin, a researcher at Great Wall Securities, believes that compared with the first half of March, the average daily electricity price dropped, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery is not solid enough, but the decline was narrower than at the end of last year.
In the first two months of this year, the cumulative power generation in the country was 488.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. Wang Wei, a researcher at Guotai Junan, believes that the power generation in March alone is better than the cumulative power generation in January and February. However, in the first ten days of the year, the power generation in the second half of March has decreased more than the power generation in the whole month. It does not reflect the trend of continuous recovery.
Xue Jing said that the statistical caliber of the State Grid's dispatched power generation is different from that of the China Power Grid. The single-tend data does not reflect the power generation trend of the whole month or even the quarter. It is normal for the power generation to fluctuate up and down in the short term.
Xue Jing revealed that from the current national network dispatch data, the power generation trends of different provinces in the country have clearly differentiated. This is related to factors such as the economic situation of the provinces, the local economic structure, the proportion of electricity used by residents, the situation of hydropower generation, and the support of high-energy-consuming industries.
She also pointed out that in March this year, due to several cold current attacks, the amount of electricity used for heating may increase. Therefore, even if the power generation has rebounded, it is difficult to reflect the recovery of economic entities. From the perspective of downstream products such as steel and nonferrous metals in the power industry. For the time being, I have not seen any obvious signs of recovery.
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