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The global financial crisis financial crisis in 2009 has caused different degrees of impact on domestic CNC machine tool manufacturers. The growth rate of the machine tool industry in the first half of the year has always been a single digit. Some small industries have experienced negative growth for several months. The profits of the whole industry have fallen sharply. Down, judging from the trend of major statistics in each month of the first half of the year, after March, the indicators stabilized, mainly due to the market demand structure to the high-end development trend.
It is understood that the current machine tool industry is in a good rising stage, and the confidence of the enterprise market is enhanced. In the first half of the year, the sales rate of industrial products reached 96.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. According to the statistics of the first nine months, the production and sales rate of the machine tool industry reached 97.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of industrial output value of China's machine tool industry has increased steadily, and the monthly growth rate in the third quarter has risen to double digits. At the same time, the profit decline of the whole industry also began to narrow, and corporate losses have shrunk, but the situation of sharp decline in imports and exports has not improved, and the decline in exports is particularly serious. At present, the overall domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, but the demand for machine tools in several key industries continues to be strong. It is expected that the growth rate of machine tool industry in the whole industry will reach about 10% in 2009, and the gold cutting machine tool industry will be flat or slightly increased. Imports of metalworking machine tools will reach US$6.1 billion for the year, and exports will fall back to US$1.4 billion.
This is due to the national economic stimulus package. The support of national policies is a strong and beneficial backing for the development of the industry, and the economic recovery provides a favorable spatial factor in supporting the development of the industry. The outlook for the entire machine tool industry is optimistic. As a convention organizer for the machine tool industry, it is also a stimulant and power station.
1. Industry growth rate stabilizes upward
It is understood that the monthly growth rate of the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry in the first two quarters has been around 5%, while the growth rate in July, August and September is relatively high, driving the cumulative growth rate from January to September to reach 9.1%. good.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry completed a total of 272.62 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year; the total industrial output value in September increased by 18.2%. Among them, privately-held enterprises and other types of enterprises achieved a relatively high growth rate of 19.0% and 17.7% respectively; collective holding companies got rid of negative growth and achieved a slight increase of 1.1%; the degree of decline of state-owned enterprises slowed down compared with the first half of the year. , which was -6.7%; Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreign-controlled enterprises were better than the first half of the year, but the rate of decline was still double-digit, -13.7% and -16.9%.
In terms of sub-sectors, in the machine tool industry, the output value of the metal cutting machine industry, which accounts for a quarter of the total industry, has been negative for the fifth consecutive month since April this year. The decline has basically remained at 2%. . Since September, the industry's monthly industrial output growth rate has reached 12.0%, an increase of 8.5% from the previous month, and the growth rate is relatively large, driving the cumulative growth rate of industrial output value from January to September to be the same as that of the same period last year. According to the statistics of the China Machine Tool Industry Association on 125 key contact machine tools, except for March and September, the monthly gross industrial output was negative. Since March, the monthly gross industrial output value of the gold cutting machine tool industry has fluctuated mainly between 4.5 billion and 5 billion yuan. In August, it exceeded 5 billion yuan, a significant increase from the first few months of this year, but it is still unstable. Falling back, given the low base last year, there was a significant increase in September.
Although the sales growth rate of Jinchee's products from January to August increased by 0.9 percentage points from January to May, it increased by 6.7% year-on-year. However, the decline in product sales revenue increased by 1.4 percentage points from January to May. Obviously, the machine tool industry is generally improving, but the gold cutting machine industry is still unstable.
2, the product structure has been adjusted
The impact of the financial crisis on the demand for various types of machine tools is mixed. The demand for ordinary and low-grade CNC machine tools has shrunk dramatically, and large and heavy-duty CNC machine tools have maintained stable demand.
According to the statistics of the association, from January to September 2009, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tool output value was 53.6%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year. The output of gold cutting machine tools and the output of CNC machine tools decreased by 30.6% and 13.8% respectively over the same period, and the average unit price increased by 34% and 21% respectively compared with the same period of last year. From the second half of last year to September 2009, the average unit price growth rate of machine tools is accelerating, especially in the first half of 2009, an average increase of more than 10 percentage points from a year ago.
In addition, the import of machine parts in the third quarter of 2009 reached the peak of the last four quarters. It can be seen that the number of domestically produced machine tools that need to be equipped with imported parts is increasing.
The structure of imported machine tools is also constantly changing to high-end and large-scale, which can be seen from the unit price of imported machine tools. From January to September 2009, the average unit price of imported machine tools was US$89,000, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.
China's monthly import value of machine tool products reached a maximum of 990 million US dollars in June. After a decline in July and August, it climbed again in September, reaching 940 million US dollars, down 16.4% year-on-year and 31.5% month-on-month. %, became the second month of this year to import more than 900 million US dollars.
3. Depth of export decline
Affected by the financial crisis, the international machine tool market continued to slump. In the first nine months of this year, the consumer markets of the world's major machine tool producing countries and regions experienced a sharp decline.
According to the statistics of the association, China's machine tool products exports from January to September were 3.39 billion US dollars, down 37.9% year-on-year; among them, metal processing machine tools exported 1.03 billion US dollars, down 36.3% year-on-year. Compared with the export volume of the whole industry, the monthly ratio showed a slight upward trend. Among them, the export volume in September reached the highest monthly value of 460 million US dollars this year.
Statistics also show that the current unit price of exporting machine tools in China continues to fall, and the average unit price has dropped by 25%. In particular, combination machine tools, CNC horizontal lathes, CNC gear processing machines, bench drills, polishing machines, planers, broaching machines, sawing machines, forming bending machines, punching machines, mechanical presses and other types of machine tools have a relatively large decline. Relevant persons of the association believe that most of these products are export products with low added value and traditional advantages. The decline in unit price may be the reason why the country's recent increase in tax rebates has reduced the cost of enterprises, or it may be that enterprises seize the international market. The active price reduction behavior of the share.
Among the export products, there are also many types of machine tool export unit prices continue to rise, such as: CNC lathes, CNC boring and milling machines, CNC gantry milling machines, CNC grinding machines, horizontal and gantry machining centers, forging or stamping machine tools, cutting machine tools, etc., which reflects The trend of China's export products to high-end and large-scale development.
According to the economic operation of the machine tool industry in the first three quarters, the association believes that in 2009, the economic operation of the machine tool industry was basically at a low level and a small wave of dynamics. In the second half of the year, the domestic economy showed signs of recovery, but the impact of the financial crisis on the industry and uncertainties remained. Existence, so the industry still faces great difficulties.
The future development trend of the machine tool industry
Machine tools are the basic means of production for the equipment industry. The machine tool industry is a basic industry and a strategic industry that is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood and national defense construction. It is closely watched by all parties in the world. Under the guidance of the state's correct policies and policies, China's machine tool industry has experienced the economic recovery period and the "10th Five-Year Plan" stage, especially the arduous efforts of the reform and opening up 20 years, establishing a larger scale and a more complete system, and laying a favorable technology. Basic, with considerable competitive strength.
China's machine tool industry has entered the first phalanx of the world. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's national economy and the necessary strengthening of national defense construction, the national equipment manufacturing industry has put forward a lot of urgent needs for the basic and strategic production and manufacturing methods of machine tools. Since 2008, the output of CNC machine tools in China has been declining continuously. Among them, the month of February 2008 increased by 17.35% year-on-year. In May, it increased by 6.97% year-on-year. In August and November, there was a year-on-year negative growth, which was 7.58% year-on-year. 34.4%. Specific data analysis. The main reasons for the continuous reduction of China's domestic CNC machine tools are: First, the impact of the international financial crisis on China's real economy has continued to deepen. Second, China has a large number of CNC machine tool exports every year, while the US subprime mortgage crisis has affected the global export of CNC machine tools. The demand for the base has caused China's CNC machine tool enterprises to reduce production to cope with the "winter's arrival". Third, in recent years, the appreciation of the renminbi is also a cause. The continuous appreciation of the renminbi has led to the profit of the export-oriented enterprises of CNC machine tools. The thinner it is. Fourth, domestic prices are rising, and raw material prices have increased the burden on enterprises. Fifth, the implementation of the new labor law in 2008, the labor cost advantage of CNC machine tools enterprises was weakened.
Machine tools are the basic means of production for the equipment industry. The machine tool industry is a basic industry and a strategic industry that is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood and national defense construction. It is closely watched by all parties in the world. Under the guidance of the state's correct policies and policies, China's machine tool industry has experienced the economic recovery period and the "10th Five-Year Plan" stage, especially the arduous efforts of the reform and opening up 20 years, establishing a larger scale and a more complete system, and laying a favorable technology. Basic, with considerable competitive strength. China's machine tool industry has entered the first phalanx of the world. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's national economy and the necessary strengthening of national defense construction, the national equipment manufacturing industry has put forward a lot of urgent needs for the basic and strategic production and manufacturing methods of machine tools. In the next few years, the demand for China's machine tool market is still optimistic. By 2020, when China's industrialization is basically realized, as the working machine, the domestic market demand of the machine tool industry will not decline and reverse. The first is the rise of private enterprises, stimulating domestic demand in the machine tool market. Secondly, the upgrading of products and technologies in various industries has increased the demand space of the machine tool market. In this regard, Zhou Guo called it the secondary industry revolution, which made it possible to transform the demand of the domestic machine tool market into the demand of the foreign machine tool market. The third is that people's work and life leisure and entertainment, as well as the quality of clothing, food, housing and transportation, have added new potential to the domestic demand of the machine tool market.
It is understood that the current machine tool industry is in a good rising stage, and the confidence of the enterprise market is enhanced. In the first half of the year, the sales rate of industrial products reached 96.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. According to the statistics of the first nine months, the production and sales rate of the machine tool industry reached 97.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the growth rate of industrial output value of China's machine tool industry has increased steadily, and the monthly growth rate in the third quarter has risen to double digits. At the same time, the profit decline of the whole industry also began to narrow, and corporate losses have shrunk, but the situation of sharp decline in imports and exports has not improved, and the decline in exports is particularly serious. At present, the overall domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, but the demand for machine tools in several key industries continues to be strong. It is expected that the growth rate of machine tool industry in the whole industry will reach about 10% in 2009, and the gold cutting machine tool industry will be flat or slightly increased. Imports of metalworking machine tools will reach US$6.1 billion for the year, and exports will fall back to US$1.4 billion.
This is due to the national economic stimulus package. The support of national policies is a strong and beneficial backing for the development of the industry, and the economic recovery provides a favorable spatial factor in supporting the development of the industry. The outlook for the entire machine tool industry is optimistic. As a convention organizer for the machine tool industry, it is also a stimulant and power station.
1. Industry growth rate stabilizes upward
It is understood that the monthly growth rate of the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry in the first two quarters has been around 5%, while the growth rate in July, August and September is relatively high, driving the cumulative growth rate from January to September to reach 9.1%. good.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September, the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry completed a total of 272.62 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1% year-on-year; the total industrial output value in September increased by 18.2%. Among them, privately-held enterprises and other types of enterprises achieved a relatively high growth rate of 19.0% and 17.7% respectively; collective holding companies got rid of negative growth and achieved a slight increase of 1.1%; the degree of decline of state-owned enterprises slowed down compared with the first half of the year. , which was -6.7%; Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreign-controlled enterprises were better than the first half of the year, but the rate of decline was still double-digit, -13.7% and -16.9%.
In terms of sub-sectors, in the machine tool industry, the output value of the metal cutting machine industry, which accounts for a quarter of the total industry, has been negative for the fifth consecutive month since April this year. The decline has basically remained at 2%. . Since September, the industry's monthly industrial output growth rate has reached 12.0%, an increase of 8.5% from the previous month, and the growth rate is relatively large, driving the cumulative growth rate of industrial output value from January to September to be the same as that of the same period last year. According to the statistics of the China Machine Tool Industry Association on 125 key contact machine tools, except for March and September, the monthly gross industrial output was negative. Since March, the monthly gross industrial output value of the gold cutting machine tool industry has fluctuated mainly between 4.5 billion and 5 billion yuan. In August, it exceeded 5 billion yuan, a significant increase from the first few months of this year, but it is still unstable. Falling back, given the low base last year, there was a significant increase in September.
Although the sales growth rate of Jinchee's products from January to August increased by 0.9 percentage points from January to May, it increased by 6.7% year-on-year. However, the decline in product sales revenue increased by 1.4 percentage points from January to May. Obviously, the machine tool industry is generally improving, but the gold cutting machine industry is still unstable.
2, the product structure has been adjusted
The impact of the financial crisis on the demand for various types of machine tools is mixed. The demand for ordinary and low-grade CNC machine tools has shrunk dramatically, and large and heavy-duty CNC machine tools have maintained stable demand.
According to the statistics of the association, from January to September 2009, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tool output value was 53.6%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year. The output of gold cutting machine tools and the output of CNC machine tools decreased by 30.6% and 13.8% respectively over the same period, and the average unit price increased by 34% and 21% respectively compared with the same period of last year. From the second half of last year to September 2009, the average unit price growth rate of machine tools is accelerating, especially in the first half of 2009, an average increase of more than 10 percentage points from a year ago.
In addition, the import of machine parts in the third quarter of 2009 reached the peak of the last four quarters. It can be seen that the number of domestically produced machine tools that need to be equipped with imported parts is increasing.
The structure of imported machine tools is also constantly changing to high-end and large-scale, which can be seen from the unit price of imported machine tools. From January to September 2009, the average unit price of imported machine tools was US$89,000, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.
China's monthly import value of machine tool products reached a maximum of 990 million US dollars in June. After a decline in July and August, it climbed again in September, reaching 940 million US dollars, down 16.4% year-on-year and 31.5% month-on-month. %, became the second month of this year to import more than 900 million US dollars.
3. Depth of export decline
Affected by the financial crisis, the international machine tool market continued to slump. In the first nine months of this year, the consumer markets of the world's major machine tool producing countries and regions experienced a sharp decline.
According to the statistics of the association, China's machine tool products exports from January to September were 3.39 billion US dollars, down 37.9% year-on-year; among them, metal processing machine tools exported 1.03 billion US dollars, down 36.3% year-on-year. Compared with the export volume of the whole industry, the monthly ratio showed a slight upward trend. Among them, the export volume in September reached the highest monthly value of 460 million US dollars this year.
Statistics also show that the current unit price of exporting machine tools in China continues to fall, and the average unit price has dropped by 25%. In particular, combination machine tools, CNC horizontal lathes, CNC gear processing machines, bench drills, polishing machines, planers, broaching machines, sawing machines, forming bending machines, punching machines, mechanical presses and other types of machine tools have a relatively large decline. Relevant persons of the association believe that most of these products are export products with low added value and traditional advantages. The decline in unit price may be the reason why the country's recent increase in tax rebates has reduced the cost of enterprises, or it may be that enterprises seize the international market. The active price reduction behavior of the share.
Among the export products, there are also many types of machine tool export unit prices continue to rise, such as: CNC lathes, CNC boring and milling machines, CNC gantry milling machines, CNC grinding machines, horizontal and gantry machining centers, forging or stamping machine tools, cutting machine tools, etc., which reflects The trend of China's export products to high-end and large-scale development.
According to the economic operation of the machine tool industry in the first three quarters, the association believes that in 2009, the economic operation of the machine tool industry was basically at a low level and a small wave of dynamics. In the second half of the year, the domestic economy showed signs of recovery, but the impact of the financial crisis on the industry and uncertainties remained. Existence, so the industry still faces great difficulties.
The future development trend of the machine tool industry
Machine tools are the basic means of production for the equipment industry. The machine tool industry is a basic industry and a strategic industry that is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood and national defense construction. It is closely watched by all parties in the world. Under the guidance of the state's correct policies and policies, China's machine tool industry has experienced the economic recovery period and the "10th Five-Year Plan" stage, especially the arduous efforts of the reform and opening up 20 years, establishing a larger scale and a more complete system, and laying a favorable technology. Basic, with considerable competitive strength.
China's machine tool industry has entered the first phalanx of the world. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's national economy and the necessary strengthening of national defense construction, the national equipment manufacturing industry has put forward a lot of urgent needs for the basic and strategic production and manufacturing methods of machine tools. Since 2008, the output of CNC machine tools in China has been declining continuously. Among them, the month of February 2008 increased by 17.35% year-on-year. In May, it increased by 6.97% year-on-year. In August and November, there was a year-on-year negative growth, which was 7.58% year-on-year. 34.4%. Specific data analysis. The main reasons for the continuous reduction of China's domestic CNC machine tools are: First, the impact of the international financial crisis on China's real economy has continued to deepen. Second, China has a large number of CNC machine tool exports every year, while the US subprime mortgage crisis has affected the global export of CNC machine tools. The demand for the base has caused China's CNC machine tool enterprises to reduce production to cope with the "winter's arrival". Third, in recent years, the appreciation of the renminbi is also a cause. The continuous appreciation of the renminbi has led to the profit of the export-oriented enterprises of CNC machine tools. The thinner it is. Fourth, domestic prices are rising, and raw material prices have increased the burden on enterprises. Fifth, the implementation of the new labor law in 2008, the labor cost advantage of CNC machine tools enterprises was weakened.
Machine tools are the basic means of production for the equipment industry. The machine tool industry is a basic industry and a strategic industry that is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood and national defense construction. It is closely watched by all parties in the world. Under the guidance of the state's correct policies and policies, China's machine tool industry has experienced the economic recovery period and the "10th Five-Year Plan" stage, especially the arduous efforts of the reform and opening up 20 years, establishing a larger scale and a more complete system, and laying a favorable technology. Basic, with considerable competitive strength. China's machine tool industry has entered the first phalanx of the world. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's national economy and the necessary strengthening of national defense construction, the national equipment manufacturing industry has put forward a lot of urgent needs for the basic and strategic production and manufacturing methods of machine tools. In the next few years, the demand for China's machine tool market is still optimistic. By 2020, when China's industrialization is basically realized, as the working machine, the domestic market demand of the machine tool industry will not decline and reverse. The first is the rise of private enterprises, stimulating domestic demand in the machine tool market. Secondly, the upgrading of products and technologies in various industries has increased the demand space of the machine tool market. In this regard, Zhou Guo called it the secondary industry revolution, which made it possible to transform the demand of the domestic machine tool market into the demand of the foreign machine tool market. The third is that people's work and life leisure and entertainment, as well as the quality of clothing, food, housing and transportation, have added new potential to the domestic demand of the machine tool market.
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