Reimagining the future of energy

Business News Agency June 9th News We are at a major turning point in the supply of petroleum, and are entering a stage of high-cost, high-risk unconventional crude oil from the relatively low-cost conventional crude oil period, but finding clean, safe and efficient energy is not easy. In order to get rid of the dependence on oil, human beings need to re-imagine our energy future.

Since the beginning of this year, global oil prices have been constantly fluctuating, and recent Libyan tensions have escalated the crisis in the Middle East, thus pulling oil prices into the air. This makes the issue of energy substitution attract much attention recently. When the peak of oil appears is no longer a matter worthy of concern. What one should carefully study is that in the future what energy can be used to replace oil? Nuclear energy, wind energy or solar energy, or other new energy?

In fact, since the 19th century, humans began to discuss the energy crisis that we will encounter. However, today's energy shortage is still a problem that the world has long failed to effectively solve. The Canadian economist Jeff Rubin reminded us that we are at a major turning point in the supply of oil, entering the stage of high-cost, high-risk unconventional crude oil from a period of relatively low-cost conventional crude oil. The era is coming to an end and the distance is the cost. We must not only free the economy from our dependence on oil, but also must re-plan our way of life.

Nuclear power surrounded by havoc On May 10, 2011, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan apologized to the citizens for the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and announced the suspension of nuclear power development and suspended the energy development plan previously formulated by the Japanese government. In the future, Japan will focus on the development of new energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy. On May 30, the German Minister of the Environment announced that Germany will close all domestic nuclear power plants by 2022. Germany will be the first major industrial country that will no longer use nuclear energy.

On April 12th, the Japan Broadcasting Association Television reported that the Japan Atomic Energy Security Institute of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry decided to raise the level of nuclear accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to the most serious level of 7. This resulted in the same level of nuclear accidents in Japan as nuclear accidents at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station in the former Soviet Union. The Chernobyl nuclear leak incident in the former Soviet Union that occurred on April 26, 1986, brought deep disaster to the people of the former Soviet Union and still has influence. Experts estimate that it would take at least 800 years to completely eliminate the effects of Chernobyl.

In fact, since the first nuclear reactor of the Soviet Union began operating before 1954, nuclear power energy, as an alternative energy source for petroleum, has suffered a series of fate, and its development has undergone a process of stagnation, rapidity, and stagnation. Since the 1950s, after more than half a century of development, nuclear power has made tremendous contributions to the progress of human civilization. However, in 1979, the accidents of the United States Sanchadao nuclear power plant and Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986 cast a shadow on the development of nuclear power in the world. The world nuclear power industry experienced a stagnation for 20 years. With the advent of global economic recession and global warming caused by the world oil crisis, people realized that nuclear power plays an important role in ensuring energy supply and mitigating air pollution, and that nuclear power does not release carbon dioxide compared with thermal power. ,*, and carbon monoxide, so nuclear power is being developed as a clean energy source.

In a report drafted in 2004 by the European Commission’s transportation and energy sector, the European Union would not be able to achieve the Kyoto Protocol’s goal of reducing the greenhouse gas emissions if it does not build a nuclear power plant. In December 2003, after careful consideration, the Finns decided to rebuild the nuclear power plant and become the first country in Europe to reaccept nuclear power. After that, France, Britain, Italy and other countries also began to build nuclear power plants.

However, since the nuclear accident in Fukushima, many countries around the world have adjusted their nuclear power policies. U.S. Rep. Majki, who is a member of the U.S. National Assembly, submitted to President Obama a letter requesting the temporary suspension of the construction of a new nuclear power plant. It also proposed how to strengthen the response of the U.S. federal government in the event of an emergency. President Obama’s proposed $36 billion nuclear power plant construction policy will surely attract many controversies in the parliament. Under huge pressure, countries around the world have announced the approval procedures for suspending the ongoing nuclear power plant replacement plan, or shut down all domestic nuclear power plants, and decide whether or not to restart the nuclear power project through a referendum. For a time, the people's controversy over whether nuclear power should be an ideal substitute for oil energy is very much a challenge. Some analysts believe that the nuclear power industry gradually recovering due to the attention of countries to global warming may stop at this point, and the development of nuclear energy will be greatly affected.

Correcting: Nuclear Energy Should Not Exit Although there are many disputes about whether the world still needs to continue to develop nuclear energy, it has recently risen to a hot stage. However, many energy and environmental experts, including environmentalists, still believe that in addition to nuclear power, It is difficult to find a more effective and safer form of energy. Nuclear energy cannot be replaced. Now the "emergency brakes" of various countries are just "point brakes." However, after this, the development, utilization, and management of nuclear energy will become more stringent.

British climatologist James? According to James Lovelock, "Japan's nuclear leakage problem is still not keeping people away from nuclear energy. People seem to have an 'unusual fear' of nuclear power. This inherent bias is unreasonable." Global Warming Policy ** will be responsible for Benny? Benny Peiser also believes that "the Fukushima incident will not let nuclear power technology into the winter."

More than 80% of nuclear power supplies in France are nuclear power, and nuclear industry is also the main export industry in France. The Fukushima accident caused the French to begin to pay attention to the safety of domestic nuclear power plants. French President Nicolas Sarkozy believes that the safety, reliability and transparency of French nuclear facilities are among the leading positions in the world. He will not completely negate the nuclear industry because of an accident.

In Europe, one-third of electricity comes from nuclear energy. In the United States, although the share of nuclear power is not very large, in fact, the United States already has 104 nuclear power plants, ranking first in the world. In 1980, Sweden established the ideal of "non-nuclear homeland" after 30 years by referendum. However, due to the lack of viable alternative energy sources, Sweden closed only one nuclear power plant after 25 years of referendum (May 2005). . Moreover, compared with 25 years ago, the new generation of Swedes is increasingly concerned about the negative impact of the global greenhouse effect on the environment, and began to value the clean and cheap side of nuclear power. At the same time, it has greatly reduced the danger of nuclear power plants technically.

From this point of view, before the emergence of new cheap renewable energy sources, countries in the world must pay more attention to how to continue to develop nuclear energy while ensuring safety. The accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant was a wake-up call to the development of nuclear power in various countries. Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of China and the World Economy at Tsinghua University, believes: “Japan is a multi-seismic country and it is not suitable for developing nuclear power plants. However, Japan is also a country with energy shortages. Developing nuclear power can solve the problem of serious power shortages, but this is an adventure. Acts: Japanese society and academia have long argued about the issue of nuclear power plants in Japan. The contradiction is very large."

Therefore, the site selection of a nuclear power plant is very important. It is necessary to stay away from geological fractures and build on stable bedrock. There must be “high-level” fortification for seismic standards and flood control standards.

Nuclear power plants have always had some mystery for most people. The gates of nuclear power plants around the world are closed to the outside world. However, since it is the peaceful use of nuclear energy, some information does not need to be kept confidential. Only when the information is open and transparent can effective supervision be achieved. As nuclear power involves huge benefits, an opaque regulatory system can easily result in lax audits, thus laying down security risks.

How to effectively implement safety supervision in the nuclear power system, in addition to supervision by the regulatory body, creating a more open public supervision environment will further help reduce nuclear power risks. In addition, the Fukushima nuclear accident may also give the nuclear power industry an opportunity to coordinate a new international framework for the use of nuclear energy.

Solar energy: It may reach a high level Although nuclear power will not be launched on the historical stage for a long time, people are still exploring how other new energy sources can be used as alternative energy solutions for oil. Among them, people have recently paid more attention to solar energy. Since nuclear energy is like a "Pandora's box," if it leaks, the consequences will be disastrous. Therefore, in the situation where it is impossible to ensure the absolute safety of nuclear power plants, finding safer, cleaner renewable energy to gradually replace nuclear energy has become an urgent issue that needs to be adjusted in the global energy strategy.

In recent years, countries have made greater use of natural gas and renewable energy, and many countries have made various attempts. For example, Israel is making great efforts to develop natural gas and solar power. Germany is also developing wind power and natural gas. Germany is also the world's largest solar power generation country.

After the Fukushima nuclear leak, experts from various countries generally believed that finding and adopting renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind power, and hydropower are the future trends. Among renewable energy sources, solar energy has been hailed as a warm resource that is readily available and is the most ideal new energy source for humans. Experts predict that solar energy is in a prominent position in the transformation of the world's energy structure. The research findings of relevant professionals on the world's energy alternative trends show that solar energy will enter a rapid development stage in the early 21st century, and will reach a 30% rate in 2050 and be second to nuclear energy. By the end of the 21st century, solar energy will Replaces nuclear energy first.

In fact, the Japanese government introduced subsidies for solar roof installation systems as early as 1994. By 2004, Japan had become the world's largest photovoltaic market. Japanese companies Sharp, Mitsubishi, Kyocera, Panasonic, and Sanyo are all world-class solar cell manufacturers. The direct result of the nuclear accident at Fukushima is to give the Japanese solar industry a chance to become part of the energy solution.

After the Fukushima nuclear accident, Germany plans to permanently give up nuclear energy and invest billions of dollars to expand the use of renewable energy. Especially in the use of solar energy, Germany has formulated a series of incentive policies. At present, the total amount of solar power generation in Germany has been on an equal footing with nuclear energy.

China has set a goal of 15% of non-fossil fuel power generation by 2020. To achieve this goal, we must build 20 million kilowatts of solar photovoltaic power generation by 2020, and on the other hand, we must build 3 times more countries in the world. The new nuclear power capacity. But now, it seems that the goal of nuclear power may be lowered. To realize the total goal, it seems that we must vigorously develop solar energy.

Zhang Jiancheng, a solar energy expert, thinks: “In energy strategy, many developed countries were called 'energy substitution' as early as ten years ago, but nuclear energy is also regarded as an alternative energy source; while China's energy policy is also called 'energy saving and emission reduction'. 'There is no concept of 'energy substitution'. In the future, energy substitution in the global energy strategy will be transformed into the replacement of non-fossil energy with renewable energy, including nuclear energy."

A research report from Duke University in the United States pointed out that since the cost of solar photovoltaic systems has dropped drastically in the past decade while the cost of nuclear energy has been rising, in the era of nuclear power, the cost of building a reactor in the United States was about 2 billion U.S. dollars, and today it is It is 10 billion U.S. dollars.

The report believes that in the next decade, solar energy is expected to take advantage of price competition without government subsidies, and the competitiveness of solar energy and other renewable energy sources will continue to increase. Jeremy, the founder of Solarcentury, the largest solar energy company in the UK? Jeremy Leggett predicted that within five years, even the cloudy UK could achieve the same level of solar and oil fuel distribution. Google has announced a breakthrough effort to make renewable energy cheaper than coal. As of the end of 2009, the total installed capacity of solar power generation in the world exceeded 22 million kilowatts, while the newly added capacity in just one year reached 7 million kilowatts, of which half were in Germany. Obviously, solar energy developed to this scale, it can not be said that it is an expensive clean energy.

For China, a large amount of solar energy equipment in the world is produced in China and more than 95% are exported to developed countries. With the continuous decline in the cost of solar energy systems, solar energy will rapidly develop in China, but the key to development lies in how to move the solar energy market from abroad to China.