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As the saying goes, "The year-old flowers are similar, and the ages are different." After the "11" this year, the domestic oil market fluctuated and fell. Recently, it has been set up in the second half of September to adjust the new low, which is the same as the same period last year. The trend can be described as the opposite. On this occasion, the US biodiesel storm has revived, and the CBOT soybean oil price has thus risen significantly. Can the domestic oil and fat market take the opportunity to rise? Please listen to the Xiaobian slowly.
As we all know, the domestic soybean oil market demand has been bad recently. According to Cofeed data, the monthly total volume of bulk soybean oil in the coastal major oil plants has dropped rapidly since hitting a new high of 640,000 tons in August. In September, it fell below the 500,000 mark to 460,000. Near the end of October, there have been only about 230,000 since the beginning of October. It is estimated that the total monthly turnover will be around 400,000 tons, and imported soybeans will be concentrated in Hong Kong. The latest survey by Cofeed shows that the domestic soybean imports in October are forecast to arrive at Hong Kong 121 ships. 7.408 million tons, higher than the actual arrival volume of September, which was 7,590,500 tons. The latest soybean arrival in November is expected to be 9 million tons. The latest expectation in December is 9.1 million tons. The oil plant supplies are abundant, and most of them try to maintain the start-up (unless there is Since the product expansion and other force majeure factors), and the October 19th grand ceremony was held, it is reported that the operating rate of the North China Oil Plant has not been affected, except for Bunge, which is in full line.
It is against this background that domestic soybean oil stocks have continued to rise. As of October 18, domestic soybean oil commercial stocks rose to a record high of 1.608 million tons, an increase of 17.65% over the same period last year. 35.47%. At the same time, domestic palm oil stocks are also being rebuilt. Recently, the total inventory of edible palm oil in the national port was 438,600, an increase of 23.1% over the same period of last month. The contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding, and the domestic oil market can be described as “pressure mountainâ€.
On this occasion, the US domestic biodiesel turmoil on the other side of the ocean has re-emerged. According to reports, US President Trump has instructed the Environmental Protection Agency not to lower the biofuel consumption standards. He told the Iowa governor that he supported Develop renewable fuels. In addition, a group of 22 US congressmen also sent a letter requesting the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) not to reduce some of the requirements for blending biodiesel in the country's fuel supply. As we all know, soybean oil is the main raw material for biodiesel. With the optimism of biodiesel demand re-ignited, the superimposed export demand is better than expected. According to the weekly export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of October 12 During the week, the US net sales of soybean oil in 2017/18 was 27,400 tons, which was higher than market expectations. Jointly boosted the CBOT soyoil price last night, which rose by 0.42 cents in December, to close at 33.83 cents/lb. The rise in the price of US soybean oil will bring good benefits to the domestic oil market.
Secondly, Malaysia's palm oil export report is bullish. According to data released by shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1-20 increased by 11.6% from the previous month's 852,206 tons to 51,339 tons. The news rose, today's Dalian oil futures appeared "transaction", close to the midday closing and even the palm oil so pulled, driving even soybean oil also reversed the previous decline, today even palm oil rose to 5608 yuan / ton in January, the latest 5592 Yuan/ton, up 0.8%, even the January contract of soybean oil rose to 6058 yuan / ton, the latest 6046 yuan / ton, up 0.2%.
In general, although the current domestic oil and fat futures rebounded, the domestic fundamental pressure did not decrease. In the next two months, soybeans reached 9 million tons per month. The supply of soybeans was basically abundant, the operating rate of oil plants rose to a high level, and soybean oil stocks were also Climb to over 1.6 million tons, hitting a record high! At present, the consumption of terminals is not large. Many investigations have prompted the factories to urge dealers to pick up the goods. However, the results show that the results are still very small. The oilseed oil stocks in the oil plants can be described as “pressure mountainâ€. It is said that a small number of oil plants have already expanded. In addition, the market rumors will be auctioned after the 19th deposit of vegetable oil in 2013. In 2014, the reserve vegetable oil will be converted into a one-time reserve, but it will continue to be put into the market next year. In 2013, there were more than 300,000 vegetable oils including Qinghai Inner Mongolia. Tons, more than 900,000 tons in 14 years. Heavy and negative pressure, it is expected that soybean oil spot short-term rebound resistance is greater, even if the rebound, the upper space is limited, the overall may gradually oscillate down. In terms of palm oil, due to the upside down of palm oil imports from October to December, there is a boat washing act. Subsequent reductions in palm oil arrivals are expected to support palm oil to a certain extent, which will make its trend relatively weaker than soybean oil, and the spread between the two will remain low for a while.
As we all know, the domestic soybean oil market demand has been bad recently. According to Cofeed data, the monthly total volume of bulk soybean oil in the coastal major oil plants has dropped rapidly since hitting a new high of 640,000 tons in August. In September, it fell below the 500,000 mark to 460,000. Near the end of October, there have been only about 230,000 since the beginning of October. It is estimated that the total monthly turnover will be around 400,000 tons, and imported soybeans will be concentrated in Hong Kong. The latest survey by Cofeed shows that the domestic soybean imports in October are forecast to arrive at Hong Kong 121 ships. 7.408 million tons, higher than the actual arrival volume of September, which was 7,590,500 tons. The latest soybean arrival in November is expected to be 9 million tons. The latest expectation in December is 9.1 million tons. The oil plant supplies are abundant, and most of them try to maintain the start-up (unless there is Since the product expansion and other force majeure factors), and the October 19th grand ceremony was held, it is reported that the operating rate of the North China Oil Plant has not been affected, except for Bunge, which is in full line.
It is against this background that domestic soybean oil stocks have continued to rise. As of October 18, domestic soybean oil commercial stocks rose to a record high of 1.608 million tons, an increase of 17.65% over the same period last year. 35.47%. At the same time, domestic palm oil stocks are also being rebuilt. Recently, the total inventory of edible palm oil in the national port was 438,600, an increase of 23.1% over the same period of last month. The contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding, and the domestic oil market can be described as “pressure mountainâ€.
On this occasion, the US domestic biodiesel turmoil on the other side of the ocean has re-emerged. According to reports, US President Trump has instructed the Environmental Protection Agency not to lower the biofuel consumption standards. He told the Iowa governor that he supported Develop renewable fuels. In addition, a group of 22 US congressmen also sent a letter requesting the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) not to reduce some of the requirements for blending biodiesel in the country's fuel supply. As we all know, soybean oil is the main raw material for biodiesel. With the optimism of biodiesel demand re-ignited, the superimposed export demand is better than expected. According to the weekly export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), as of October 12 During the week, the US net sales of soybean oil in 2017/18 was 27,400 tons, which was higher than market expectations. Jointly boosted the CBOT soyoil price last night, which rose by 0.42 cents in December, to close at 33.83 cents/lb. The rise in the price of US soybean oil will bring good benefits to the domestic oil market.
Secondly, Malaysia's palm oil export report is bullish. According to data released by shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1-20 increased by 11.6% from the previous month's 852,206 tons to 51,339 tons. The news rose, today's Dalian oil futures appeared "transaction", close to the midday closing and even the palm oil so pulled, driving even soybean oil also reversed the previous decline, today even palm oil rose to 5608 yuan / ton in January, the latest 5592 Yuan/ton, up 0.8%, even the January contract of soybean oil rose to 6058 yuan / ton, the latest 6046 yuan / ton, up 0.2%.
In general, although the current domestic oil and fat futures rebounded, the domestic fundamental pressure did not decrease. In the next two months, soybeans reached 9 million tons per month. The supply of soybeans was basically abundant, the operating rate of oil plants rose to a high level, and soybean oil stocks were also Climb to over 1.6 million tons, hitting a record high! At present, the consumption of terminals is not large. Many investigations have prompted the factories to urge dealers to pick up the goods. However, the results show that the results are still very small. The oilseed oil stocks in the oil plants can be described as “pressure mountainâ€. It is said that a small number of oil plants have already expanded. In addition, the market rumors will be auctioned after the 19th deposit of vegetable oil in 2013. In 2014, the reserve vegetable oil will be converted into a one-time reserve, but it will continue to be put into the market next year. In 2013, there were more than 300,000 vegetable oils including Qinghai Inner Mongolia. Tons, more than 900,000 tons in 14 years. Heavy and negative pressure, it is expected that soybean oil spot short-term rebound resistance is greater, even if the rebound, the upper space is limited, the overall may gradually oscillate down. In terms of palm oil, due to the upside down of palm oil imports from October to December, there is a boat washing act. Subsequent reductions in palm oil arrivals are expected to support palm oil to a certain extent, which will make its trend relatively weaker than soybean oil, and the spread between the two will remain low for a while.
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