How is the Chinese economy doing in the second half of the year? The State Council uses these six words to adjust

GDP has grown by 6.8%, and China has handed over a bright first-half economic transcript. The Chinese economy should continue to develop steadily and steadily. What should we do next? The State Council executive meeting held on July 23 deployed fiscal and financial policies and determined measures to promote effective investment by supplementing shortcomings, increasing stamina, and benefiting people's livelihood.

a "collaborative force"

——Financial and financial policies should be coordinated

The deployment of the conference will give full play to the role of fiscal and financial policies and support the expansion of the domestic demand structure to promote the development of the real economy. It is proposed that "financial and financial policies should work together to serve the real economy more effectively and serve the macroeconomic situation more effectively."

One of the “better” and two “more” in the briefing of the meeting clarified the requirements.

Recently, there has been a debate on the domestic network that “monetary policy and fiscal policy have played a better role in preventing and defusing financial risks”.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, told the reporter of Chinanews.com (WeChat public number: cns2012) that the current structural problems in China cannot be solved by a single policy of a single department. It is necessary to work together to alleviate credit risks and credit. Mutual reinforcement of breach of contract.

Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, told reporters: "The changes in the international environment, especially the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, have brought uncertainty to economic development. In order to hedge this uncertainty, it is necessary to Do some fine-tuning on the policy side."

a "more active"

- Active fiscal policy should be more active

For fiscal policy and monetary policy, the official tone is: positive fiscal policy and a stable neutral monetary policy.

The State Council meeting called for a more active fiscal policy.

Zhao Xijun said, "The advancement of supply-side structural reforms in the first half of the year, coupled with some achievements in deleveraging, has given more room for the use of fiscal policy."

How is active fiscal policy more positive? Official requirements:

——Ensure that the tax burden of the main market will be reduced by 1.1 trillion yuan throughout the year;

—— The policy of increasing the deduction rate of enterprise R&D expenses to 75% was extended to all enterprises, and preliminary estimates were that the annual tax reduction could be 65 billion yuan.

-- The 113 billion yuan that has been refunded for the value-added tax refunds for advanced manufacturing and modern service industries will be basically completed by the end of September.

-- Accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds of 1.35 trillion yuan this year, and achieve early results in promoting infrastructure projects under construction.

Pan Xiangdong said that structural tax cuts are the focus of this year's fiscal policy. This time, the applicable subject of deduction of research and development expenses will be extended to all enterprises. Under the background of Sino-US trade friction, China's determination to strengthen the core technology field is demonstrated. .

a "tightness "

- Steady monetary policy should be tight and moderate

For monetary policy, the meeting proposed that "a sound monetary policy should be tight and moderate."

Meeting requirements:

—— Maintain a moderate amount of social financing and liquidity, and unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary and credit policies, and implement the various measures that have been introduced.

—— Through the implementation of account management, etc., establish a responsibility system, and implement policies such as support for small loans, small and micro enterprises, and individual industrial and commercial households with interest-free loans.

—— Guide financial institutions to use the RRR cuts to support small and micro enterprises, market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps, etc.

-- Encourage commercial banks to issue small and micro enterprise financial bonds, exempting issuers from continuous profit requirements.

“The fluctuations, shocks and uncertainties in the economy make monetary policy need to be more flexible, rather than maintaining neutrality,” said Zhao Xijun.

Cao Heping, a professor at Peking University School of Economics, told reporters that in the past, monetary policy was cautious, and now it has implemented a tight monetary policy. This is a decision made in light of actual conditions, which is conducive to ensuring the stable development of China's economy in structural changes.

Two "in place"

——Support the development of small and micro enterprises

In the orientation control arrangement, the meeting notified a lot about the measures to support the development of small and micro enterprises.

For example, “Policy for small loans, small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households with interest-free loans exempted from value-added tax will be put in place”, “Accelerate the funding of the National Financing Guarantee Fund, and strive to achieve an annual support of 150,000 (times). Small and micro enterprises and 140 billion yuan loan targets, and so on.

"This is very good news for small and micro enterprises." Sun Lijian, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Fudan University, told reporters that "funding policies can meet the funding needs of SMEs and help enterprises become bigger and stronger."

While vigorously supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, the government clearly wants to resolutely clear out "zombie enterprises" and reduce the use of invalid funds.

Pan Xiangdong explained that this means that the determination of the “zombie enterprise” will be unchanged, and some policy adjustments will be made to avoid some “good assets” and “toxic assets” being killed together. At present, after the phase-out of de-leveraging, some entities and leverage are needed to achieve economic growth and structural transformation.

Three "push"

- Promote steady growth in effective investment

“Promoting effective investment and stable growth” is another important part of the State Council’s executive meeting on July 23. The three occurrences of the word “push” in the meeting’s circular are closely related to investment.

For example, “Proactive fiscal policy should be more active” proposes to accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds of local governments of 1.35 trillion yuan this year, and to achieve early results in promoting infrastructure projects under construction.

Pan Xiangdong said that the growth rate of investment in the first half of the year has declined. The meeting called for local special debts to achieve early results in infrastructure projects. The proportion of investment is inevitably low. The special debts for land storage, special tolls for toll roads, and special debts for sheds are expected to speed up the issuance. To make up for the infrastructure financing gap.

In order to promote the steady growth of effective investment, the meeting also proposed to “promote a number of projects focusing on private investment, clear investment return mechanism and great commercial potential in the fields of transportation, oil and gas, telecommunications, etc.” and “accelerating the signing of foreign-funded projects”. "Require the necessary projects under construction to avoid the supply of funds, the project is unfinished," and so on.

“Some projects under construction are risk-proof and need to be rectified, but if they stop, the losses will be great for the economy.” According to Wu Yaping, director of the institutional policy office of the Investment Development Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, “there are still many under construction. The project itself needs reasonable financing and will continue to be built up."

Wu Yaping said that the bank spent a lot of money on the financing platform. The financing platform constitutes the government's invisible debt. It is necessary to prevent risks. However, if the bank only accepts loans as in the first half of the year, the financing platform will not be able to withstand it. It is impossible to repay all debts in a short time.

So, will this run counter to deleveraging? Zhao Xijun told reporters: "The key is to accurately de-leverage. Improve the efficiency of the use of funds, give full play to its role, and implement the construction project. This will not only control the risk of excessive debt, but also control the leverage within a reasonable range. within."

a "persistence"

——Insist on not engaging in “strong flooding” strong stimulation

Official reports such as “positive fiscal policy should be more active” and “stable monetary policy should be tight and moderate” are released by some research institutions as a strong “loose” signal.

In Wu Yaping's view, this is not a policy shift, but an economic policy such as fiscal policy and monetary policy.

The official is clear that it is required to maintain macroeconomic stability and insist on not engaging in the "big flood irrigation" type of strong stimulus. According to the situation, the camera pre-adjusts the fine-tuning and orientation control, responds to the uncertainty of the external environment, and keeps the economic operation in a reasonable range.

Wu Yaping said that since the beginning of this year, China's macro-economy has faced relatively large challenges. One is to prevent risks, and the other is to bring challenges to the external environmental trade war. However, in general, the fundamentals of the macro economy are ok, and there is no need to be strong.

Zhao Xijun also believes that the overall tone of fiscal policy and monetary policy has not changed, and tasks such as deleveraging also require macroeconomic policies to maintain a certain degree of certainty. Now the market does not engage in "one size fits all", it is precisely the specific embodiment of pre-adjustment and fine-tuning according to the changes in the situation.

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