Aluminum prices once again attributed to silence

The aluminum price was once again attributed to the silence of Taurus Futures Yang Lihai's previous oversold rebound. After the Shanghai aluminum price was once again attributed to silence, the main contract AL0410 remained within the narrow range of for five consecutive trading days, with daily trading volume of less than 30,000 lots and the previous period. There was a sharp contrast between the hands of more than 400,000 hands. Despite the strong trend of LME aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum market was only able to fluctuate slightly under the guidance of Shanghai copper. The 16000 upper gear weighed heavily, and the lower 15500 market was obviously reluctant to sell. Before the spot can be effectively digested, it is very difficult for aluminum prices to rise. China's bauxite resources account for 2% of the world's total, but the current extraction volume has reached 10%, and the lifespan is only 1/5 of the world average. However, there are dozens of alumina projects to be built in China. These projects are 3 times With the current scale of production, the long-term depletion of the country's bauxite resources in the near future will be imperative. Although the state cracked down on the electrolytic aluminum industry, the effect was not obvious. The aluminum production data of the world’s major aluminum producing countries announced by the International Aluminum Organization recently showed that China’s output from January to May increased by 511,000 tons to 2.59 million tons. The growth rate accounted for 55.1% of the world. The increase in output, the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the weakness of the consumer market have caused heavy pressure on domestic aluminum prices. It is difficult to improve the material in the short-to-medium term. At the same time, the price of alumina has continued to decline. Since late May, the price of imported alumina has dropped sharply. Within a short period of half a month, the CIF price has dropped from 460 US dollars/ton to the current 350-360 US$/ton, and Minmetals Nonferrous Metals has lowered its price again on June 14th. The price of imported alumina was 4,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The drop in the price of alumina offset the impact of the three-time increase in electricity prices, and in the short term, it suppressed domestic aluminum prices. Despite the increase in electricity price, the decrease in output growth and the increase in consumption are the long-term trends. However, in the domestic stock market, there is a clear lack of incentive to do more. In the short term, aluminum prices can only maintain the concussion pattern under the influence of copper prices and news.

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