Two major factors promote the year-on-year increase or reverse of CPI in November

The CPI will be announced in November. Based on the weakening of the tailing factor and the impact of rain and snow weather, the current organization generally believes that the CPI in November will turn positively in the same period of last year, and the increase may be around 0.7%. For the price situation in 2010, analysts believe that the possibility of hyperinflation is not great.
November CPI year-on-year growth rate There is no suspense in October. The CPI in October fell by 0.5% year-on-year, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. It was also the third consecutive month of decline. At present, the time window for the publication of CPI data is approaching again, and institutions generally believe that the year-on-year increase in CPI will turn positive in November.
Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, pointed out that the CPI growth in November will be positively driven by two factors. The first factor is the large-scale snow disaster in the north and some southern provinces and cities, which has led to an increase in the prices of vegetables and other foods. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, vegetable prices and fruit prices have risen strongly since November due to widespread rain, snow and cold weather. Especially vegetables, the weekly increase of more than 10%, reaching the highest level of the year. At the same time, the drop in temperature also led to an increase in the demand for meat and poultry, and the price of pork and white striped chicken rose slightly. The prices of aquatic products, eggs and food have all risen. Only edible oils continue to fall due to ample inventory. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, since November 10, the wholesale price index of agricultural products and the wholesale price of “vegetable basket” products have risen rapidly. The average price change of major foods in 50 cities published by the Bureau of Statistics also showed the same information. The second factor is that the negative impact of the hikes factor is significantly reduced. In November, the hike factor was -0.2%, a sharp increase of 0.8 percentage points from the -1.0% in October. The negative impact significantly decreased the CPI year-on-year reading.
The political commissar of Lu predicted that the food price increase in November will be around 0.9%, falling within the range of 0.6%-1.2%. The non-food price growth in November is slightly lower than that in October, in the range of 0.1%-0.3%. The CPI growth rate will be 0.2%-0.6%, with a median value of 0.4%; the CPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to fall within the range of 0.5%-0.9%, with a median value of 0.7%.
Li Huaijun, the first venture fixed income researcher, also said that from the “National Agricultural Wholesale Price Index” of the Ministry of Agriculture in October-November 2009, it can be seen that the index has a bottoming out process in November. In particular, due to the impact of large-scale snowfall in the country in the near future, there has been a significant rebound. He predicted that according to the food price data monitored by the Ministry of Commerce, the food growth rate of CPI in November is expected to increase by 0.8 percentage points, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, and 1.1 percentage points to CPI year-on-year; with reference to historical data, taking into account recent non-food prices The changes, especially the increase in refined oil prices this month, are expected to be 0.2 percentage points higher than the core CPI in November, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, and -0.4 percentage points higher than the CPI. Therefore, based on the combination of food and non-food factors, the first venture expects CPI in November 2009 to increase by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter.
The probability of hyperinflation in 2010 is low. Will the positive CPI in November increase the market's concerns about future inflation? At present, although the research institutions have differences in the specific increase of CPI, most analysts believe that hyperinflation in 2010 is a small probability event.
Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Everbright Securities, said that the price trend in 2010 will be characterized by “high expectations and low inflation”. It is expected that CPI will increase by 2.5-3.0% in 2010. Pan Xiangdong pointed out that, first of all, the price of food, which constitutes the main driving force behind the rise in CPI, is expected to remain stable. This year, the national summer grain output increased for six consecutive years. In October, the grain price increased by 6.2% year-on-year, compared with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. Secondly, there are still difficulties in fully digesting the capacity of domestic manufacturing industries. The global demand for manufactured goods is still relatively low, which will curb the rise in the price of mid-end products. Third, there is limited room for further substantial increases in the prices of bulk raw materials. The two major factors that are currently causing a sharp rise in commodity prices will change next year: on the one hand, the dollar is unlikely to continue to experience rapid depreciation, and it will show more of a weaker dollar (no trending or rising) On the other hand, everyone is expected to change the loose monetary policy, and the future driving force for further commodity prices will be transformed into the needs of the real economy, and due to the continued lack of global aggregate demand in the future, commodities The upside will be suppressed.
The first venture, Li Huaijun, has a slightly higher forecast for the 2010 CPI year-on-year growth, which is expected to be 3.5%. He said that from the macroeconomic situation, the United States, the European Union and Japan have all gone out of recession, and China's economy is surpassing the potential economic growth rate of around 9%. From the recovery period to the expansion period, it will inevitably bring about a rapid rebound in the price level. . In the early stage, this rebound was mainly driven by demand, while in the latter stage, it was mainly driven by cost. This kind of cost promotion will mainly come from two aspects: one is the rise of international oil prices; the other is the reform of the domestic energy price formation mechanism. The first venture expects CPI to increase 3.5% year-on-year in the next year, with international oil prices fluctuating between US$70-90 per barrel and domestic energy price reforms, with 2.2% and 3.4% in the first quarter. 4.2% and 4.3%.

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