"Expensive" and "Lian" of renewable energy

At the St. Petersburg Economic Forum held not long ago, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkadí Dvorkovic said that renewable energy is still too expensive and it is expected to make renewable energy cheaper through technological development.
This sounds strange, but indeed, to this day, when it comes to the topic of renewable energy, there are still many doubts that renewable energy is an "expensive stunner" that survives on subsidies and subsidies. We must know that in today's fast-changing world of technology, clean energy that was once incapable and affordable has become within reach and is a priority that people can access and enjoy.
Renewable energy is the data of the green cheap energy Lazard Investment Bank (from the survey report "Levelized cost of energy analysis-9.0") shows that in the United States, industrial use of wind power and solar power has actually become the most economical way of generating electricity. The only thing that can match it is natural gas hybrid power generation. The level of electricity (LCOE) for wind power generation is 32 to 77 US dollars / megawatt hour, the LCOE of solar power generation is 50 to 70 US dollars / megawatt hour, and the LCOE of steam gas turbine power generation is 52 to 78 US dollars / megawatt hour. Gas turbine power generation LCOE is 68-101 US dollars / MWh.
According to the US Department of Energy data, as early as 2014, the average price of long-term power purchase contracts with US wind power plants has dropped to 23.5 US dollars / MWh, which is lower than the domestic electricity sales price in the same period. In 2009, the average price of wind power in the United States was as high as $70/MWh.
At the same time, the price of solar power is also continuing to decline. At the beginning of 2015, the bidding price of solar energy in Dubai, UAE was US$58.4/MWh. This year, Peru and Mexico won the bids of US$48/MWh and US$36/MWh respectively. The UAE’s bid price was not long ago. The record fell to $29.9/MWh.
It can be seen that in many parts of the world, the cost of generating electricity from renewable energy sources is already very low. New installed power statistics show that renewable energy is no longer an alternative energy source. Renewable energy installed capacity achieved a 100% net increase in the EU for two consecutive years. Among the new installed capacity in the United States in 2015, solar power and wind power accounted for nearly 70%.
In addition to asset depreciation, renewable energy generation is almost free of natural resources (no need for fuel consumption in renewable energy generation). In addition, it is certain that the capital investment costs of solar power and wind power will continue to decrease. In large-scale renewable energy power generation projects in some of the world's major markets, infrastructure investment has fallen to $1/W, which has led to a significant drop in electricity costs.
The current price of renewable energy in Russia is higher than the current electricity price, and it is precisely because of this that the Deputy Prime Minister spoke of the “expensive” renewable energy at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. However, it should be noted that, first of all, electricity prices are not the only way to recover electricity and energy investment. Secondly, renewable energy power cannot be universally promoted at once. This is a new industry that has been developed step by step through a series of measures with the support of the state. this point is very important. With the formation of the market, various preferential measures and financial support can be gradually reduced when the scale and efficiency of renewable energy generation appear.
For example, in the 20 years before 2004, the subsidy for green electricity feed-in tariffs provided by Germany to clean energy producers was 0.574 euros/kWh. The green subsidies for new projects are now in the range of 0 to 0.13 Euro/kWh, and the price of renewable energy for industrial use is determined by competitive bidding.
At present, the traditional energy subsidies far exceed the renewable energy subsidies. In all aspects of energy, whether it is nuclear energy projects or oil and gas exploration projects, the cumulative subsidy amount has exceeded the renewable energy subsidies several times. Even if the old energy infrastructure that was built many years ago is inseparable from various forms of state financial support, renewable energy is definitely not the main target of state financial support. Russia's Nobel Prize in Physics, Joris Alferov, once said that if we withdraw even 15% of our funds from nuclear energy to develop alternative energy sources, we can now completely eliminate nuclear power plants. According to the International Energy Agency, the total subsidy for global fossil fuel consumption in 2014 was $493 billion, more than three times the global renewable energy subsidy that year. In addition, support for renewable energy is carried out in a transparent manner, and in most cases, including in Russia, it is funded from outside the budget; subsidies for fossil energy, nuclear energy, and raw materials are all subsidized. It is conducted in a less transparent form, including separately defined non-public subsidies and direct budget support.
In the process of comparing various power generation methods, in addition to financial factors, more and more considerations are concerned about social and economic factors and ecological factors. If the use of cheap coal and other types of energy for electricity production will increase disease and mortality, does this mean that coal or other forms of electricity generation will cost a lot? In the survey report "How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?", the International Monetary Fund directly pointed out that energy subsidies are external factors affecting the development of various types of energy. In view of our usual spending in the energy sector, renewable energy is definitely superior to fossil fuel power generation in terms of economy.
How to catch up in the field of renewable energy Whether Russia needs to develop renewable energy, whether it needs to increase development in the field of solar energy and wind energy - this is not only an energy issue, but also an industrial policy and economic development. China, Germany, Japan, the United States and other major solar power installations are also leading industrial powers. In recent years, these countries are building new process technology platforms in the energy sector and creating a rapidly growing renewable energy market. According to conservative estimates, the total installed capacity of solar power plants worldwide will increase from the current 230 GW to 600 GW by 2020. India plans to build a 100 GW photovoltaic installation by 2022. In Iran, large-scale renewable energy development plans have also been adopted.
Do you need to join this huge market now, become one of them, or wait for an opportunity, then take the opportunity to acquire cheaper technology? Because after all, the oil and gas revenue in our pockets has been shrinking. I am afraid that the result of waiting and seeing will definitely be a dead end. It may be worthwhile to examine the most important natural gas power generation in Russia's power generation structure. At present, even in the case of enjoying the domestic special preferential gas price, the economic efficiency of Russian natural gas power generation is still low.
Therefore, Russia must have a place in the global market for new energy. On the one hand, it will increase the proportion of renewable energy generation in the domestic market (of course, taking into account the domestic natural environment suitability, existing power generation structure and excess natural gas, etc.) On the one hand, relying on engineering solutions and terminal products to enter the international market.
By contrast, what is “expensive” and “low” is clear at a glance. Any modern technology is expensive under the old economic development model where per capita income is generally low. Negative waiting will lead to even more backwardness. Even if technological development reduces production costs, backward economic strength is still unable to afford the popularization and promotion of renewable energy. Only by formulating long-term development plans, creating the development environment of the domestic renewable energy industry, protecting the interests of domestic renewable energy producers, and continuing to invest in the research and development of renewable energy technologies, and subsidizing high capital investment, can we get rid of this vicious circle. The field of renewable energy is catching up.