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Last week, LME aluminum was in a turbulent trend. March aluminum closed at $2777.5/ton, down $27.5/ton from the previous week. Inventories fell by 550 tons to 680,875 tons, and spot prices changed from premium to rare in recent years. Shanghai aluminum in domestic and export tariffs lowered in the alumina aluminum prices are down sharply lower under the influence, the main 701 contract over the previous week fell 1,220 yuan / ton to 19,780 yuan / ton, the spot price is more firm, fell 540 yuan / ton, AC - The stock fell by 5896 tons to 29,638 tons. Total inventory in Shanghai, Wuxi, and Nanhai fell by 3,200 tons to 37,000 tons.
Earlier this week, the market lowered the alumina price of alumina to 2,500 yuan/ton, and afterwards, Chinalco lowered it to 2,400 yuan/ton. It is understood that the spot purchase ratio is not large. The reduction in alumina import tariff did not result in a decline in alumina prices at the port and there were fewer transactions. According to the Macquarie report, the price of China Aluminum Alumina at 2,400 yuan/ton is equivalent to about 300 US dollars/ton, while the alumina price at alumina is around 260 US dollars/ton, and it is expected that the alumina price may be lowered again, which may also be The reason for fewer deals. The spot market for aluminum ingots was generally traded at the beginning of the week, but aluminum prices fell rapidly under the influence of tariff reductions and alumina price adjustments. Spot dealers actively intervened, inventory continued to decline, and prices also rebounded.
The Ministry of Finance promulgated “China's temporary tariff rate adjustment for some import and export commoditiesâ€, in which the alumina import tariff was reduced from the previous 5.5% to 3%, and the export tariff for aluminum ingots was increased from 5% to 15%. The new tax rate is from November. Starting from the 1st. As China's export structure of aluminum and its aluminum products is quietly changing, the news that the domestic aluminum prices will form a short-term negative short-term impact, but the impact of LME aluminum prices less. From January to September, China's primary aluminum exports were 693,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%, aluminum exports were 1,314,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 53.34%, and exports of aluminum alloys were 288,900 tons, an increase of 168.24% year-on-year. Therefore, from a long-term point of view, the purpose of the country’s current tariff increase is mainly to adjust the structure of export products. Therefore, if the downstream semi-manufacture exports continue to climb upward, the negative impact of this information will be limited.
In the near-term fundamentals, there are many factors that Alcoa expects to double global aluminum consumption by 2020, driven by emerging markets such as India, China, Brazil and Russia. It is estimated that by 2011, the proportion of the aviation industry in aluminum consumption will increase to 15%. In addition, Alcoa plans to increase production by 13% by the end of this year and increase production by 25% by the end of next year. Last year, the company’s aluminum production was 761,000 tons, and the output could be close to 861,000 tons by the end of this year. The company will continue to try to finalize the long-term alumina agreement and has signed an agreement to purchase 40% alumina production from the Global Aluminum Group. Alcoa plans to become one of the top five aluminum producers in the world in the next five years. The aluminum industry is the second largest industry in Arabia and ranks behind oil. According to the October 30 news Singapore, METI preliminary data released on Monday showed that Japan end of September rolled aluminum products inventories increased 0.4% in August compared to 77,873 tonnes in September rolled aluminum product inventory flat year on year. This shows that the recent international market aluminum ingot consumption is relatively strong, and there is an expectation of continued strong future.
In general, aluminum prices still have some rebound requirements under the influence of aluminum prices in LME remains strong and domestic stocks decline. However, domestic aluminum futures will be affected by the psychological expectations of the restart of production capacity, and the rebound level is limited.
Earlier this week, the market lowered the alumina price of alumina to 2,500 yuan/ton, and afterwards, Chinalco lowered it to 2,400 yuan/ton. It is understood that the spot purchase ratio is not large. The reduction in alumina import tariff did not result in a decline in alumina prices at the port and there were fewer transactions. According to the Macquarie report, the price of China Aluminum Alumina at 2,400 yuan/ton is equivalent to about 300 US dollars/ton, while the alumina price at alumina is around 260 US dollars/ton, and it is expected that the alumina price may be lowered again, which may also be The reason for fewer deals. The spot market for aluminum ingots was generally traded at the beginning of the week, but aluminum prices fell rapidly under the influence of tariff reductions and alumina price adjustments. Spot dealers actively intervened, inventory continued to decline, and prices also rebounded.
The Ministry of Finance promulgated “China's temporary tariff rate adjustment for some import and export commoditiesâ€, in which the alumina import tariff was reduced from the previous 5.5% to 3%, and the export tariff for aluminum ingots was increased from 5% to 15%. The new tax rate is from November. Starting from the 1st. As China's export structure of aluminum and its aluminum products is quietly changing, the news that the domestic aluminum prices will form a short-term negative short-term impact, but the impact of LME aluminum prices less. From January to September, China's primary aluminum exports were 693,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.6%, aluminum exports were 1,314,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 53.34%, and exports of aluminum alloys were 288,900 tons, an increase of 168.24% year-on-year. Therefore, from a long-term point of view, the purpose of the country’s current tariff increase is mainly to adjust the structure of export products. Therefore, if the downstream semi-manufacture exports continue to climb upward, the negative impact of this information will be limited.
In the near-term fundamentals, there are many factors that Alcoa expects to double global aluminum consumption by 2020, driven by emerging markets such as India, China, Brazil and Russia. It is estimated that by 2011, the proportion of the aviation industry in aluminum consumption will increase to 15%. In addition, Alcoa plans to increase production by 13% by the end of this year and increase production by 25% by the end of next year. Last year, the company’s aluminum production was 761,000 tons, and the output could be close to 861,000 tons by the end of this year. The company will continue to try to finalize the long-term alumina agreement and has signed an agreement to purchase 40% alumina production from the Global Aluminum Group. Alcoa plans to become one of the top five aluminum producers in the world in the next five years. The aluminum industry is the second largest industry in Arabia and ranks behind oil. According to the October 30 news Singapore, METI preliminary data released on Monday showed that Japan end of September rolled aluminum products inventories increased 0.4% in August compared to 77,873 tonnes in September rolled aluminum product inventory flat year on year. This shows that the recent international market aluminum ingot consumption is relatively strong, and there is an expectation of continued strong future.
In general, aluminum prices still have some rebound requirements under the influence of aluminum prices in LME remains strong and domestic stocks decline. However, domestic aluminum futures will be affected by the psychological expectations of the restart of production capacity, and the rebound level is limited.
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