Steel market: The steel market continues to fall. Last week, the rebar market price in Shanghai fell by RMB 180/ton, and the national average price fell by RMB 263/ton. The hot-rolled decline exceeded the rebar, and the average price fell by nearly RMB 300/ton. The relatively firm cold-rolled products also fell by an average of RMB 138/ton. At present, the impact of various factors is still negative. On the macro level, the possibility of a double dip in the global economy continues to increase, while the domestic economic growth continues to slow down, and monetary policy is expected to remain tight. Raw materials: On October 21, the price of the outer plate of the printing mine fell to US$155/ton, down by US$11/ton from the previous week. Domestic mines also started to fall again after two weeks of stabilization, and fell by RMB 140/ton during the week. Imported ore stocks are temporarily stable. On the 21st, the total inventory of iron ore in the key port of Mysteel was 92.22 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. According to the survey, on the one hand, steel mills slowed down the pace of iron ore procurement, mainly to consume port stocks. On the other hand, the two extensions continue to increase the volume of tenders and shipments, increase the delivery of goods to China, and also drive the rise in sea freight. Profit margin: The profitability of steel products continues to deteriorate. After the National Day, the price of iron ore and scrap plummeted, and the production cost of steel mills continued to decrease. According to the cost model, the cost on the 20th was down by RMB 74/ton from the previous week. In terms of profitability, the decline in steel prices was greater than that of raw materials, and the losses of rebar and other varieties were even more serious. The average profit of rebar on the 20th was -367 yuan / ton, down 216 yuan / ton from the previous week; the average profit of hot rolling was -344 Yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton from the previous week. Inventory: Traders take the initiative to reduce inventory and social stocks fall. The steel market has fallen, the market is extremely pessimistic, traders are reluctant to order from steel mills, in order to reduce losses, the inventory in hand is also sold as much as possible. In addition, from the historical law, the national stocks of the National Day will gradually fall back after a pulse. On the 21st, Mysteel's statistical social inventory was 14.78 million tons, down 350,000 tons from the previous week, which was basically the same as last year. Inventories of all major varieties have declined, with rebar having the largest decline, with a cumulative reduction of 250,000 tons per week. Price adjustment information: The ex-factory price of steel mills continues to drop sharply. With the deep correction of the spot market price of steel, steel mills are also forced to continue to cut the ex-factory price. Since October, there have been many surprising downward adjustments. For example, the November ex-factory price of Angang's hot-rolled products will meet the certain conditions and the 200 orders will be reduced on the basis of 300% reduction. Bengang will directly reduce the price by 500 yuan/ton. In terms of rebar, Panzhihua has adjusted the Chengdu market by 800 yuan/ton since August. Valuation and investment strategy: The steel industry is experiencing positive and negative impacts of industry cycle changes and economic cycle changes. From the industry pattern, the power of iron ore prices has slowed or disappeared, and the relative allocation value of the steel industry has gradually increased, but currently Faced with the adverse impact of the economic cycle: the economic growth rate declines. At this stage, the downturn of the economic cycle has a greater impact on earnings, while the improvement of the industry structure and bargaining power is a long-term and slow process. From the valuation point of view, we believe that the current valuation level has basically reflected the expected decline in economic growth, maintaining the industry's "recommended" rating. Specific varieties, in accordance with our previous logic, medium and long-term optimistic about companies with reasonable or low P/E ratios such as Daye Special Steel, Xining Special Steel, Bayi Iron and Steel, Xinxing Casting Pipe, and Baosteel.
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