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Since December last year, the LNG (liquefied natural gas) market price has risen from 6558.33 yuan / ton all the way to December 25 last year, directly set a record high of 8477.78 yuan / ton, during which the increase was close to 30%, but a week later, this offer There was a high diving rate. By January 4, the market price fell back to 5,500 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 33%. "This rapid decline has suddenly put a lot of speculative funds," said a person from a downstream gas company. In the opinion of the industry, with the careful deployment of the natural gas supply shortage this year, the major oil companies have strengthened the pipe network interconnection and actively expanded the LNG warehousing and transportation capacity. Even if there is a shortage of natural gas supply this year, the relevant departments It also has the ability to effectively resolve risks. Zhang Yuqing, former deputy director of the National Energy Administration, pointed out at a recent forum that the global supply of LNG will intensify in the future, so the domestic natural gas supply is fully guaranteed. Speculative capital "all the magical powers" 21st Century Economic Report reporters learned that since October last year, the domestic LNG market has suddenly changed, and a large number of speculative capitals have poured into the various magical powers. The reason is that in September last year, the Ministry of Housing and Construction and other four departments issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Clean Heating in the Heating Areas of the North Heating Area", focusing on promoting the "CO2 to Gas" and "Coal Reform" in the "2+26" city in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and surrounding areas. "Electric" and renewable energy heating work, comprehensively cancel the loose coal heating. “The speculative capital has thus sniffed the opportunity to make money.†The person in charge of the above-mentioned natural gas downstream company said that on the one hand, the winter heating season is coming, which leads to a sharp increase in demand for natural gas. On the other hand, the operating rate of LNG enterprises in many areas in the north is 20%-40. Between %, the supply is insufficient. Some institutions even predict that the total gap of natural gas supply in the heating season in 2017 will be 10.5 billion cubic meters, that is, the daily domestic gas supply gap will be about 80 million cubic meters. This quickly ignited the speculative enthusiasm of speculative capital. He recalled that at the beginning, many natural gas downstream enterprises were arranging for the purchase of LNG in the southern region to natural gas suppliers such as CNPC and CNOOC, and then shipped them to the northern region for price. At that time, there was a shortage of natural gas supply in the northern region, making LNG a price every day. According to Baichuan Information, since September last year, LNG in the northern region has increased by more than 100%. Even at the end of November last year, several large LNG companies in North China raised the LNG price by more than 20% within one day. "As far as I know, at that time, many hot money were still looking for natural gas downstream enterprises, providing funds to the latter to hoard LNG to rise and sometimes hoarding natural gas for 4-5 days, which would yield more than 30% of the spread. "A domestic private LNG trader Luo Gang (a pseudonym) introduced. What's more, many investment institutions simply went to Singapore and directly invested heavily in buying natural gas futures. The reason is that due to the shortage of domestic natural gas supply, the spot price of natural gas in Singapore in late December last year hit a record high of 10.26 US dollars / million British thermal units (mmBtu) since 2015, doubled compared with 6 months ago. This corresponds to the LNG futures price hovering at about $8/million BTU, with at least $2 spread arbitrage space. At the same time, some speculative capital speculatively bought LNG shipping charges in the overseas shipping pricing trading market, betting that the increase in China's natural gas imports will cause the related shipping costs to soar. According to data from ship brokers Clarkson and Fearnley, the freight rate of LNG carriers loaded with 160,000 cubic meters in December last year hit $80,000, an increase of more than 150% from eight months ago. This led to the continuous rise of domestic LNG prices. On December 25 last year, domestic LNG quotations hit an all-time high of 8477.78 yuan / ton. Some enterprises in the northern region even offered a price of 9,500 yuan / ton, and even the ex-factory prices of some LNG enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu directly rushed to the 10,000 yuan mark. Forced stop loss in the field of Luo Gang, triggering the biggest driving force for the sharp fall in LNG prices in the past week, first, the supervision of the big "falling", and second, speculative capital underestimated the ability of relevant departments to coordinate the resources of all parties to improve natural gas supply. . On December 18 last year, the National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Meng Hao pointed out that it is necessary to immediately carry out special supervision and inspection of the natural gas market price, focus on checking the fabrication and dissemination of price increase information, etc., disrupting market order behavior, resolutely investigating malicious hoarding, raising prices, and achieving Illegal acts such as monopoly agreements and abuse of market dominance. Two days later, the Price Reform, Inspection and Anti-Monopoly Bureau of the National Development and Reform Commission began investigating suspected violations of anti-monopoly law by 17 companies including Daqing Branch of China National Petroleum Corporation. “This has a considerable deterrent to speculative capital,†recalls the head of the downstream natural gas company. Since late December last year, some of the sensitive smuggling of hot money began to require LNG companies to quickly sell the hoarded LNG stocks and withdraw funds as soon as possible to withdraw from the market. However, some speculative institutions choose to stay. "I didn't expect that the domestic LNG supply and demand relationship has changed significantly in the past week." Luo Gang pointed out that on the one hand, the National Development and Reform Commission actively promoted the major oil companies to strengthen the network and interconnection, and stimulate the natural gas supply potential. On the other hand, oil companies actively increased overseas. Natural gas procurement has made up for the domestic gas shortage, and even the shipment of LNG-loaded vessels from Brazil to China has effectively eased the domestic gas supply gap. More importantly, under the guidance of relevant departments, large oil companies offer LNG quotes below market prices. Even if the market price exceeds 8,000 yuan / ton, their offer is still between 4,500 yuan / ton -5100 yuan / ton. As the supply of low-cost natural gas continues to increase, the LNG market price will inevitably fall sharply. Many reporters learned that under the pressure of domestic LNG prices falling more than 30% in the past week, many investment institutions have stopped buying LNG futures overseas. A person in charge of an investment institution who has participated in the purchase of overseas LNG futures revealed that since the average cost of LNG futures for domestic capital is about 7-8 US dollars per million British thermal units (mmBtu), now the market will face more than 15 %Loss. "What is even worse is that many of the downstream natural gas companies entrusted with natural gas hoarding LNG will increase their losses by more than 20%," he said bluntly. Nowadays, many investment institutions around him have begun to retreat to avoid the LNG market price "wall push down" and suffer higher losses.
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