Shanghai Aluminum Wins Eyes More Than 20,000 Hands in One Day

Yesterday (9th), Shanghai Futures Exchange's aluminum (Information Forum) changed the post-Spring Festival stagflation situation. After the three-month aluminium futures of the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed up 29 U.S. dollars to 1987 U.S. dollars per tonne, which was the highest since February 1995, the closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum’s recent forward contracts both rose by 320 compared with the previous trading day. Above RMB/ton, not only is the gain not weaker than that of the external disk, but the total holding position has increased by more than 23,000 hands. Shanghai Aluminum's performance on the day was refreshing. Jing Ye, a futures analyst at Jingyi, described the performance of Shanghai Aluminum yesterday as “a breakthrough in the platform and a rally”. The US dollar weakened again. The exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar broke through the recent volatility range of 1.31 to 1.33. This is the main reason why the prices of all base metals of the LME have soared. The LME registered warehouse's aluminum inventory was reduced to 375 thousand tons at a rate of 3 to 6,000 hands per day, which also provided strong support for the LME aluminum challenge at the $2,000/ton mark. Affected by the sharp increase in the external disk, Shanghai Aluminum's main contract (Al0505) climbed higher after the opening of the May contract, breaking the important resistance level of RMB16,800/ton, eventually closing at the high price of RMB16,990 per ton for all-day high prices. A dramatic increase of 13,104 hands, the volume increased to 42,068 lots and a record of historical days, and announced the closing of the consolidation of the platform from 16,370 yuan/tonne to 16,660 tons/ton across 15 trading days. However, Takano said that although the recent upward trend in domestic alumina prices, and the desire of LME aluminum to prepare to hit the $2,000/ton mark finally triggered the explosive market for domestic aluminum futures yesterday, but the intraday bullish resolutely bought it before it. Several rises did not appear. Therefore, he pointed out that the various technical indicators issued a strong bullish signal on the grounds that the market outlook can continue to look up to 18,500 yuan / ton. Despite recent media reports, Chinese aluminum ingots have flooded the Asian market since the beginning of the year, and the fundamentals of the oversupply of the international aluminum market before 2006 will not change, but the international alumina prices are due to the strong raw materials of domestic electrolytic aluminum producers. Demand has not diminished, but there has been an upward trend. It has been reported that China's imported alumina CIF price has increased to 450 US dollars per ton, and there is a forecast that spot alumina prices will rise to 500 US dollars per ton in the first half. In fact, due to the pressure of rising alumina costs, and the tighter effect of Guangdong aluminum spot stocks, coupled with aluminum consumption began to flourish after the Spring Festival, China Aluminum Corporation, a major player in the domestic aluminum industry, has continuously raised its quotation for southern China yesterday. To 16,700 yuan / ton, while the aluminum spot price in Shanghai area also rose from the previous 16,300 yuan / ton to 16,500 yuan / ton. Another analyst believes that yesterday's sharp rise in aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also has a long-term low compared with the domestic aluminum prices for almost a year, resulting in an influx of speculative funds that are afraid of the high level of copper futures and increase the interest in inter-market aluminum arbitrage. Relevant, and these funds believe that the domestic period of aluminum on the red 18,000 yuan / ton, the LME period of aluminum on the red 2100 US dollars / ton risk is much lower than the period of copper challenge 3,500 US dollars / ton risk. Source: China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.

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