Aluminum spot price performance weaker will slightly adjust later

In the past week (March 17 to March 23), the domestic aluminum spot price performance was relatively weak. Among them, the spot price of aluminum in Shanghai fell slightly, and the daily transaction price of aluminum spot fell from 16,680 yuan/ton in the beginning of the week to 16,560 yuan/ton in the week before; the spot price of aluminum in Guangdong declined slightly, and the daily spot price was higher. The price dropped from 16,920 yuan/ton in the beginning of the week to 16,900 yuan/ton in the week, and the daily lower transaction price also dropped from 16,840 yuan/ton in the early week to 16,800 yuan/ton in the early week. In addition, due to the fact that the daily high transaction price and low transaction price of aluminum spot in Guangdong Province is only around RMB 100/tonne, the aluminum price changes have little psychological impact on people. Recently, domestic aluminum prices have experienced a certain degree of correction, but aluminum spot prices are firm. The main reasons for this market structure are the following: 1. Short-term aluminum stocks growth momentum has slowed down, Guangdong stocks have always maintained low levels, and low stocks have played a good supporting role for spot prices. At the same time, aluminum inventory in Guangdong has been less than the normal turnover, and aluminum prices in the region are unlikely to drop sharply. However, if the difference between the spot price of aluminum in the Shanghai area and the Guangdong area is extended to more than 300 yuan, it will directly attract aluminum spot backflow to the Guangdong area. 2. Under the premise that aluminum production keeps increasing, and aluminum exports have dropped sharply, there is no significant increase in the apparent inventory of aluminum. Given the general shortage of liquidity among aluminum producers, it is unlikely that there will be a large amount of aluminum inventories, and there will be no backlog in the circulation area. This shows that the aluminum consumption situation is more optimistic. In February, domestic aluminum production was 557,300 tons, an increase of 17% year-on-year; aluminum exports were approximately 77,100 tons, a decrease of 32% from the previous month. From the statistical data, domestic aluminum supply will maintain its growth momentum. At present, there is no authoritative statistics on aluminum consumption in China. However, from the perspective of output and inventory, the outlook for aluminum consumption in the near future is more optimistic. In summary, there may be slight adjustments in the spot price of aluminum in the later period, but the downside is limited. (Yu Xiaojie / Futures Daily)

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