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China's supply and demand and US dollar trend are the dominant factors affecting metal prices. In the long run, changes in China's metal supply and demand will dominate the global metal prices. In the short term, the trend of the US dollar is about metal prices. The rise in metal prices in February was not unrelated to the US dollar’s ​​later decline. Copper: Domestic copper prices have slowly declined since rising to a high point at the end of January. After the Spring Festival, the price of copper rose from a low point. The average price in February was 31,640 yuan/ton, up from 31,340 yuan/ton in January. The LME copper price rose more than China, and the average price in February was US$3,250/ton, which was US$90 higher than the price in January. The lack of improvement in the relationship between supply and demand is the main reason for the rise in copper prices. Spring is the traditional peak season for copper consumption in China. Chinese importers purchase refined copper in the international market, and the United States also faces seasonal peak consumption. In the first half of the year, the global supply and demand fundamentals of copper have not been reversed. Affected by the tight spot market, the firmness of copper prices is an inevitable trend. We believe that the average price of copper in 2005 will exceed the previous expected 25,500 yuan/ton. Aluminum: In January and February, the domestic average price of electrolytic aluminum was 15,976 yuan/ton and 16,225 yuan/ton. The average LME electrolytic aluminum price was US$1,834/ton and US$1,892/ton, and the LME aluminum price rose more than twice as much as domestic prices. The difference between domestic and overseas prices further widened. From the perspective of supply and demand, the global primary aluminum gap has not yet seen signs of major improvement in the short term. Based on concerns about the reduction of China's primary aluminum exports and the expected increase in Australia's alumina prices, LME aluminum prices continued to rise in February, while the American Aluminum Association announced a 1.3% decline in the chain's output in January. May have played a role in fueling. Although it is still to be observed whether China's primary aluminum exports will decline sharply, we still believe that domestic aluminum prices in 2005 are difficult to be optimistic, but there is room for growth in international aluminum prices. Zinc: In January and February, the average domestic zinc price was RMB 12,105/ton and RMB 12,538/ton, respectively, while the average LME zinc price was USD 1,243/ton and 1,323 USD/ton respectively. Zinc prices at home and abroad have continued their upward trend. The global supply and demand gap of zinc remains. Some recent production cuts have also contributed to the rise in zinc prices. Due to power shortages, China's Zhuzhou smelter, which annually produces 300,000 tons of crude oil, accounts for approximately 3% of global production, temporarily cut production by 1/3. Swiss executives from Glencore said that due to rising energy costs, the company plans to close in Sardinia in mid-February. A 90,000 tonne zinc production capacity at a smelter in Niya. Based on the above analysis, we insist that the zinc price held in the previous period has a larger upside. Source: Securities Times
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