Analysis of China's Foreign Trade Development Situation in 2012

In 2011, as the first decade of China's accession to the WTO and the beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan, under the guidance of the policy of “adjusting structure and promoting balance”, China's foreign trade development has shifted from high growth to gradual stabilization. In 2012, the main risk faced by China's foreign trade development came from the increasingly complex external environment. Due to the persistence of the European debt crisis and the slow recovery of the US economy, the external economic environment will be even worse. China's foreign trade will face more severe challenges and exports will increase. The speed will continue to slow down. There are mainly the following uncertainties: First, the world economic recovery process is difficult and tortuous, and the international market demand is sluggish. The world economy continues to recover, but the pace of recovery has slowed markedly, and the deep-seated contradictions of the international financial crisis have not eased. The economic growth drivers of the three major economies in Europe, America and Japan are still insufficient, the employment situation is not good, private investment is weak, personal consumption is sluggish, and market demand in developed countries continues to shrink. Although the economies of emerging markets and developing countries have maintained steady growth, they still face many pressures, including rising commodity prices, increased inflationary pressures, and the influx of hot money that may be triggered by tightening monetary policy and interest rate hikes. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI) was at a level of 52.2, which was not much different from the third quarter (52.0), reflecting weak economic expansion. Second, global inflationary pressures have spread, and international commodity prices have been running at a high level. Inflationary pressures are spreading from fast-growing emerging economies to advanced economies. Currently, most countries in the world are facing inflationary pressures. In 2011, in response to inflation, the fiscal stimulus policies of major countries have gradually withdrawn, and monetary policy has gradually tightened. However, the consequent continued economic downturn has caused countries to once again shift the main goal of monetary policy from anti-inflation to stimulating economic development to prevent the economy from falling into recession again. After the financial crisis, the quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by the G20 countries has led to excess liquidity. Under the background of the global real economy downturn and the lack of investment activities, it will inevitably flood into the commodity market to avoid risks and increase the value of international commodity prices. Third, trade protectionism has once again risen. Affected by factors such as the world economic downturn, the European sovereign debt crisis and the electoral political cycle of some developed countries, major global countries have protected their own industries, restricted the tendency of foreign capital and commodity inflows, and re-emerged against China's trade protectionism. Statistics from the Ministry of Commerce show (as of December 27, 2011) that last year, China suffered from anti-dumping, countervailing, safeguard measures, and special insurance investigations, totaling 67 cases involving 5.9 billion US dollars. The products under investigation mainly involved steel, electromechanical and other fields. The products involved are gradually spread from high-tech products to traditional labor-intensive products. On January 30th, the World Trade Organization Appellate Body ruled that China violated regulations to restrict the export of nine kinds of raw materials. It is expected that various forms of trade friction will be further intensified this year, and China's foreign trade environment will become more severe. The current international economic situation has had a profound impact on China's import and export. In particular, domestic SMEs face serious challenges. China's unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable problems in foreign trade development still need to be improved. Nevertheless, in general, the steady development of China's foreign trade in 2012 still has basic and favorable conditions. First, domestic inflationary pressures are declining month by month, and are controlled to a certain extent. The domestic economy is developing steadily and the economic fundamentals are good. This will form a strong support for China's foreign trade development. Second, foreign trade policy is basically stable, and foreign trade. The structural adjustment is obvious, the market diversification strategy is actively promoted, the foreign trade development mode is accelerating, and the regional development is more coordinated. Once again, the vast number of foreign trade enterprises continue to grow in the fierce market competition, and they have the confidence and ability to resist risks, solve problems, and innovate. In the end, while maintaining the traditional advantages, China's industrial technological progress and independent innovation accelerated, new competitive advantages continued to expand, and a new trade pattern was gradually formed. Based on the above various factors, China's foreign trade will continue to maintain steady growth in 2012, but the growth rate will further decline, the export structure will continue to be optimized, and the layout will be more reasonable. At the same time, import demand will continue to increase, import growth will continue to be higher than exports, and import and export trade will be more balanced.

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