Market Confidence Setbacks Steel Price Slightly Adjusted

Due to the influence of inertial thinking after the holiday “opener”, the domestic steel market in the post-holiday open market experienced a rapid pull-up, but the introduction of the “new five-nation” real estate policy had the most direct impact on market confidence and became a guideline for the decline in steel prices. As the demand for terminals has not yet started, the pressure on steel stocks is huge, and the daily output of steel mills has begun to rebound. It is expected that the domestic steel market will be slightly adjusted this week (2013.2.25-3.1).

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, this week (2013.2.25-3.1) domestic steel market prices will be slightly adjusted, the long products market will decline slightly, and the plate market prices will rise and fall. Lange Steel's comprehensive price index is expected to fluctuate around 155.3 points, the average price of steel is about 4040 yuan, and the average decline rate is about 30-40 yuan; Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 170.4 points, a slight decline of about 1.0 points; The Lange Steel Plate Index is expected to fluctuate around 137.4, with a slight adjustment of around 0.3.

The market research data of Lange Steel Information Research Center shows that the domestic long products market price will decline slightly this week (2013.2.25-3.1), while the plate market price will rise and fall; raw material market prices will rise and fall, iron ore Stone and coke market prices will remain stable, scrap market prices will rise slightly by 50 yuan, billet market prices will decline slightly 50-60 yuan.

1. After the holiday, the domestic steel market was mixed. The 8th Week of 2013 (2013.2.18-2.22) The Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 156.1 points, which was 1.01% higher than before the holiday and 5.91% lower than the same period of last year. Among them, the LGMI long steel price index was 171.4 points, which was 1.94% higher than before the holiday and 7.81% lower than the same period of last year. The LGMI sheet price index was 137.7 points, 0.35% lower than before the holiday and 2.90% lower than the same period of last year.

According to the market monitoring of Lange Steel Information Research Center, in the 8th week of 2013, the price changes of 17 types of iron and steel raw materials and steel products counted in 44 categories (varieties) were as follows: The market price of major steel products varied; and Compared with the pre-holiday period, the number of up-rising varieties decreased significantly, while the flat varieties increased slightly, and the down varieties increased significantly. Twenty-one of the 21 varieties rose, compared with 14 before the holiday; 9 were flat and 1 more than before the holiday; 14 were down, 13 more than before the holiday. The domestic steel and iron raw material market prices were mixed, iron ore market prices rose by 15-45 yuan, coke market prices remained stable, scrap market prices rose steadily by 50 yuan, and billet market prices fell steadily by 10 yuan.

2. Rapid increase in national steel stocks after the National Day The current national steel stocks have risen for nine consecutive weeks. The rise in building materials stocks has accelerated sharply, and the rate of increase in sheet stocks has accelerated. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on February 22, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country amounted to 17.207 million tons, which was an increase of 2.6392 million tons from the holiday, an increase of 18.12%, a sharp increase from the pre-holiday increase rate of 13.57. Percentage. From the perspective of sub-species: China's wire rod social inventory was 2.0327 million tons, up 32.50% from the pre-holiday, 2.47 percentage points faster than before the holiday; the rebar social inventory was 7,698,200 tons, 22.64 tons higher than before the holiday. %. Compared with the pre-holiday increase rate, the rate of rapid increase was 15.93 percentage points. The social inventory of the disk was 585,100 tons, which was 17.77% higher than before the holiday and 8.90 percentage points higher than the pre-holiday increase. The social inventory of hot-rolled coil was The 37.15 million tons were up 9.66% from the pre-holidays, 7.70 percentage points faster than the pre-holiday increase rate, and the CRC coil social inventory was 1.561 million tons, 2.31% higher than before the holiday, slightly faster than before the holiday. 1.46 percentage points; plate social inventory is 1.629 million tons, an increase of 19.87% compared with the pre-holiday, a sharp acceleration of 17.53 percentage points from the pre-holiday increase.

3. Post-holidays steel products ** Market fell sharply During the 8th week of 2013 (2013.2.18-2.22) Rebar ** market did not extend the good momentum of pre-holiday gains in the first week of the festival, but it appeared to be significantly faster. Falling trend. This week's closing price plunged 239 points from the previous week. From the price point of view, the magnitude of the fall has reached the highest level in the near future, basically engulfing all the pre-holiday gains. This week, the main contract was 896,000 contracts, an increase of 271,000 lots. This week's position has increased substantially, and the recent increase in empty singles has obviously increased, giving prices a more powerful repression, but sustainability needs to be treated with caution.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

Six heavy-polluting industries will be subject to limit discharge According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection, from March 1, the Ministry of Environmental Protection will implement special emission limits for atmospheric pollutants in key controlled areas involving 19 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). Within the region, the six heavily polluting industries such as thermal power, iron and steel, petrochemical, cement, non-ferrous metals, and chemical industries, as well as coal-fired industrial boiler projects, will begin to implement emission limits for atmospheric pollutants from different time points. The key control areas involved a total of 47 prefecture-level cities and above in 19 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). From March 1st, 2013 onwards, the newly accepted thermal power and steel EIA projects will implement special emission limits for atmospheric pollutants; petrochemical, chemical, nonferrous metals, cement industries, and coal-fired industrial boilers will wait for appropriate emission standards. Revise and refine special limits and implement them. The steel industry sintering (prill) equipment head will carry out particulate emission special emission limits from January 1, 2015.

The State Council Executive Meeting determined to expand the scope of the pilot reform of real estate tax On the 20th, the State Council executive meeting, research and deployment continue to do a good job of real estate market regulation and control, determine the following policy measures: (A) to improve the stability of the housing price responsibility system. Each municipality, municipalities and outside the capital city of Lhasa, in addition to the principle of keeping prices basically stable, develop and publish the annual new housing price control targets. Establish and improve the assessment accountability system for the stabilization of housing prices. (b) Resolutely curb speculative investment purchases. Strict implementation of commodity housing purchase restriction measures, municipalities that have implemented purchase restriction measures, cities with separate plans, and capital cities in the province shall, in accordance with the unified requirements, improve the purchase restriction measures in areas such as restricted purchase areas, restricted types of housing purchased, and qualification examination of purchases. If house prices in other cities rise too fast, provincial governments should require them to take measures such as purchases in a timely manner. carrying out differentiatied House loan policy strictly. Expand the trial scope of individual housing property tax reform. (3) Increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing and land. The total supply of housing land in 2013 was in principle not lower than the average actual supply in the past five years. Accelerate the supply, construction and listing of small and medium sized ordinary commodity housing projects and form effective supply as soon as possible. (d) Accelerate the planning and construction of affordable housing projects. We will fully implement the task of basically completing 4.7 million sets of urban housing projects and newly starting 6.3 million units in 2013. Supporting facilities must be planned in parallel with the construction of affordable housing projects, constructed in the same period, and delivered at the same time. We will improve and strictly implement the access withdrawal system to ensure fair distribution. Before the end of 2013, cities above the prefecture level must incorporate eligible migrant workers into the scope of local housing security. (e) Strengthen market supervision. Strengthen the pre-sale management of commercial housing, strictly enforce the price quotation of commercial housing, strengthen corporate credit management, and strictly investigate and punish intermediaries for violations of laws and regulations. Promote the construction of urban individual housing information systems, strengthen market monitoring and information release management.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development started the National Village Planning Pilot According to the website of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently decided to launch a national village planning pilot project, and issued a notice to make specific requirements for the 2013 national village planning pilot work. The notice pointed out that in recent years, local villages have actively promoted the preparation and implementation of village planning, and achieved certain results. However, the problems of the village planning in the copying of the urban planning model, detachment from rural reality, guidance, and poor implementation are widespread. The pilot project of nationwide village planning was conducted to explore the concept of village planning that meets the needs of rural areas, innovate and improve village planning methods, and form a number of model examples of outstanding village planning, improve the level of village planning and enhance the practicality of village planning. .

Industry News:

According to statistics from the Hebei Metallurgical Industry Association, Hebei Province’s iron and steel enterprises’ profit was 85.06 yuan per ton in 2012, which was 82.38 yuan higher than the national large and medium-sized steel company's ton steel profit of 2.68 yuan in 2012. provincial steel exports 10,743,900 tons, export value of $ 8,083,250,300, an increase of 23.96 percent, respectively, 9.39%, respectively, accounting for 19.32% of total national exports, 15.78 percent. In 2012, the industrial added value of Hebei's iron and steel industry was 241.141 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year. The province's crude steel, steel, and pig iron production continued to rank first in the country. Although the profit per ton of steel is higher than that of large and medium-sized steel enterprises in the country, the economic benefits of the steel industry in the province have dropped sharply year-on-year. In 2012, the main business income of Hebei iron and steel enterprises was 1,146.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.80%; profits and taxes were 33.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.97%, of which profits were 15.352 billion yuan, down 40.61% year-on-year.

In the first half of February, the daily production of crude steel approached 2 million tons. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, the daily average output of crude steel of major and medium-sized enterprises in early February 2013 was 1,701,400 tons, which was a 6.1% increase from the end of the previous year. In the first half of the month, the average daily output of crude steel in the country was 1,198,900 tons, which was a 4.4% increase compared to the previous period. Among them, the output data of key steel companies even set a record high, which was only lower than the 171.23 tons in late February 2011.

Chinese seamless steel pipe EU initiated anti-dumping investigation on February 16, the European Commission issued a notice on the origin of anti-dumping investigations on Chinese seamless steel pipe (diameter of over 406.4 mm). In 2008, the European Commission initiated anti-dumping investigations on seamless steel tubes (diameter less than 406.4 mm). The final cut rate was 17.7%-39.2%.

U.S. final dumping of Chinese-made stainless steel sinks with dumping and subsidy The U.S. Department of Commerce concluded on the 20th that the Chinese export of stainless steel sinks to the United States had dumping behavior. Chinese exporters of such products also received subsidies that exceeded the allowable range. The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a final ruling on the same day that said that Chinese stainless steel sink manufacturers or exporters had dumping behavior when selling such products in the United States, with a dumping margin of 27.14% to 76.53%. In addition, such products exported to the United States from China also received subsidies ranging from 4.80% to 12.26%, exceeding the 2% allowed for developing countries.

The last period of thread ** closed down on the 22nd main contract fell 1.44%

The rebar main 1310 contract was opened at 4,070 yuan/ton in the morning on the 22nd, and then the price showed rapid and downtrend movement throughout the day throughout the day. The lowest was 4,028 yuan/ton for the whole day, and the highest was 4,086 yuan/ton to close at 4,036 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous trading day (21st), the settlement price fell by RMB 59/t, trading volume reached 2,204,304, and the number of positions opened was 896,062 contracts, down 34,720 contracts.

Downstream demand:

In January 2013, the railway investment increased by 70% compared with the same period of last year. According to statistics from the Ministry of Railways, in January, the railway completed 20.974 billion yuan in solid investment, a substantial increase of 70.9% year-on-year, of which infrastructure investment completed 14.175 billion yuan, an increase of 62.3%.

According to statistics from the China Automotive Industry Association, in January 2013, domestic automobile production and sales volume both showed a significant growth compared to the same period of the previous year. The monthly production exceeded 1.9 million units and sales exceeded 2 million units, each reaching a record high. January 2013, automobile production 1.9645 million, growth of 10.06%, an increase of 51.17%; sales of 2.0345 million, growth of 12.41%, an increase of 46.38%. Where: passenger car production 1,621,200, growth of 12.40%, an increase of 53.88%; sales of 1.7255 million, growth of 17.95%, an increase of 48.68%. The production of commercial vehicles was 334,300, an increase of 0.21% from the previous period and an increase of 39.58% year-on-year; sales of 30.90 million units were down 10.97% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 34.75%.