The building materials market will show six hot spots in the second half of 2009

In order to judge the general trend of the building materials market, we must start with the 4 trillion yuan of the national "saving the city". At the "2009 China Building Materials Business Conference" jointly hosted by China Building Materials Distribution Association and the Ministry of Commerce's Circulation Industry Promotion Center, Qin Zhanxue, vice president of China Building Materials Circulation Association, analyzed 4 trillion yuan of investment, directly related to building materials. The accumulated investment reached 3.27 trillion yuan, accounting for 81.75%. The investment of 3.27 trillion yuan will also drive other follow-up investment of about 20 trillion yuan, which will have a huge driving effect on the building materials industry. In particular, the varieties directly benefiting from investment have taken the lead in restoring rapid growth; while consumer building materials, mainly in the downstream of the real estate industry, have begun to see Dawning in the second half of the year; the building materials logistics industry is slowly growing. Qin Zhanxue predicted that the building materials market in the second half of 2009 will not be balanced. The cement market will start to “heat” and form a sharp contrast with the beginning of “cooling” of glass, ceramics, decoration and decoration materials.

As the most important material for infrastructure, cement is the iconic product in the building materials market. Qin Zhanxue analyzed that the cement domestic demand market was stable in the first half of the year, but by the second half of 2009, various investments were gradually put in place and construction began, and the cement market will usher in a new round of prosperity. In addition, the new cement production capacity in 2009 was about 145 million tons, while the backward production capacity was about 65 million tons, and the net new capacity was about 80 million tons. The total output is expected to reach 1.47 billion tons, but the demand is expected to increase by 7%. An increase of 95 million tons will also improve the relationship between supply and demand. The relative decline in coal prices will reduce the cost of cement production, which inevitably increases the market expansion capacity of the enterprise and promotes the growth of sales. However, repeated construction of cement production and investment should be alert, otherwise it will repeat the overcapacity.

In the first half of 2009, real estate has shown an upward trend, but there will be a certain lag for flat glass. It may not feel "warm" throughout 2009. Therefore, the average price of flat glass will gradually level off in the second half of the year. As the price of energy materials gradually rises, the selling price may increase. In fact, flat glass has experienced overcapacity in 2008. Enterprises should work hard on glass deep processing, especially on energy-saving glass, electronic information glass, solar glass, etc., so as to enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises. .

In the first quarter of 2009, the national glass fiber production was 520,000 tons, an increase of 9.4% over the same period of last year. It was the lowest growth rate since 2001. With the continuous implementation of “4 trillion” and the continuous investment in infrastructure construction, especially new energy and new technologies, the glass fiber market will continue to pick up in the second half of the year, and prices will rebound.

The new economic policy is obvious to the paint industry. The Shanghai World Expo and the Guangzhou Asian Games will become an important battleground for the 2009 paint campaign. The Shanghai World Expo started construction project with a construction area of ​​more than 1.5 million square meters, which is the place where the coatings showcases its talents; the Guangzhou Asian Games investment construction project reached 220 billion yuan, and the paint budget is close to 10% of the total, which means that there are nearly 22 billion yuan here. Business opportunity. In addition, the rural market and the renovation of the old houses will also have a pulling effect on the coatings market, and only exports will remain sluggish.

Ceramics, stone, decoration materials rely heavily on the development of real estate. At the beginning of 2009, the real estate industry continued to be in a downturn. This situation affected the market trend of building ceramics, sanitary ceramics and stone in the first half of 2009. However, in the second half of the year, the strong rise in domestic demand has brought ceramics and stone back to a faster development speed. It is expected that the growth rate of building ceramics will reach about 20% this year, and the growth rate of sanitary ceramics will be around 15%.

Since 2009, the building materials and home furnishing market in first-tier cities has begun to feel chilly. Some large-scale stores have experienced the phenomenon of rent retreat. The second- and third-tier cities have reacted more laxly. Some stores have not even felt the impact of the crisis. However, the building materials home market should be prevented from happening. If the housing market has a W-shaped trend, it will seriously affect the building materials home market. Therefore, it is necessary to re-lay out and prepare for a hard battle and a protracted war.

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