Import value in December 2009 created a new monthly high

In December 2009, China's foreign trade import and export increased sharply. The total value of imports and exports was US$24.302 billion, up 32.7% year-on-year and 16.7% quarter-on-quarter; of which imports were US$112.29 billion, creating a record high for monthly import value, up 55.9% year-on-year. The chain increased by 18.8%.

The sharp increase in imports shows that the effects of economic stimulus policies appear and domestic demand is relatively strong, which is also conducive to the recovery of the world economy. At present, China is at a critical stage in the process of industrialization and urbanization. Coupled with factors such as the World Expo, the demand for important industrial raw materials, resources and energy is very strong. At the same time, China is also a country with low per capita resources and energy share. The improvement of product supply capacity lags far behind the growth of demand. The huge gap between supply and demand can only be compensated by imports. The structure of import and export reflects the operation of the macro economy. Since 2000, the export growth rate of primary products has been faster than industrial manufactured products for most of the time. The increase in imports means that domestic demand will rise, and it will also reduce the accusations of Western trade protectionists on developing trade with China, which will help to form better. International trade environment. The sharp fall in the trade surplus is also conducive to promoting balance of payments, alleviating excess liquidity, helping to ease the pressure on the central bank to hedge foreign exchange, and also bring more flexibility to the implementation of the central bank's monetary policy.

In the past few years, large-scale undertaking of international industrial transfer, China has formed a number of import and export industrial clusters with relatively complete industrial chain, high concentration and increasing competitiveness. Only an increase in imports means that exports will be better in the future. Imports are leading exports. One-third of China's imports are spare parts for export processing, one-third is equipment, and one-third is raw materials. Processing trade imports have a two-month lead effect over exports, and processing trade exports are expected to continue to recover. China is the world's major exporter of manufactured goods and a major importer of energy and raw materials. The rise in the prices of primary products will worsen China's terms of trade.

In the case that the RMB exchange rate does not depreciate and the exchange rate of neighboring countries continues to depreciate, the recovery of aggregate demand will be partly reflected in the increase in imports, which will cause damage to domestic industrial production. Before and after 1998, the RMB exchange rate did not depreciate, and the investment began to pull domestic demand. As a result, the rebound in industrial value-added growth was significantly weaker than fixed-asset investment. The reason is that the deterioration of exports offsets the pullback of some investment rebounds on industrial production; but another important reason is that in the context of a non-depreciation of the exchange rate, some of domestic demand will be met through cheaper imports, thus suppressing domestic production. The depressive effect of imports on domestic production may delay the recovery time of some industries, but it is not possible to judge domestic demand based on these suppressed industries. In the middle and late stages of the economic crisis, a country whose exchange rate does not depreciate and can effectively start domestic demand is expected to take the lead in helping the world economy and international trade to thaw, and may lead the world economy to the bottom. This means that the logical process of economic transmission between countries since the economic crisis may be coming to an end and it is expected to see benign interaction.

China's increase in commodity inventories can also be said to be a reason for import growth. After the data was released, the prices of key commodities such as copper and oil rose. Can focus on steel, non-ferrous metals, crude oil and other industries related to import growth.
 

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