Lianhe Zaobao: China's macroeconomic forecast and analysis

The "China's Macroeconomic Forecast and Analysis - Fall 2011 Report" jointly conducted by Xiamen University-Ledang National University's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy predicts that the RMB appreciation against the US dollar will increase by 5% this year, reaching 6.3 yuan to 1 US dollar. Next year's appreciation will be about 4%, and the end of the year will reach 6.3 US dollars. However, assuming that the US economy is in a second recession, it will inevitably further weaken the status of the US dollar and raise expectations for the appreciation of the renminbi. The renminbi will therefore appreciate sharply, reaching a price of 5.9 yuan by the end of 2012. The report said that the expected appreciation of the renminbi will inevitably lead to the inflow of international funds and further expand China's foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, China’s imports and exports are the most affected, and even lead to negative growth in exports. The results of China's macroeconomic forecasting and policy simulations at the National University of Singapore and Xiamen University have been released in spring and autumn since July 2006. Professor Chen Kang, Director of the Program of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, and Professor Li Wenzhao, Director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Xiamen University, released the autumn report this year at the China Macroeconomic Policy Forum held the previous day. Chaired by Professor Chen Enterprise of the Singapore Pacific Economic Cooperation Committee. The report predicts that China's gross domestic product (GDP) will be 9.28% this year, down 1.11 percentage points from 2011. In 2012, the Eurozone economy slowed down and the GDP growth rate is expected to be 8.91%. In terms of consumer price index (CPI), it is expected to increase by 5.34% for the whole year, up 2.01 percentage points year-on-year; in 2012, it will fall back to 4.93%, still above the policy target of 4%. The authorities' management of inflation cannot be relaxed, because the higher the CPI, the greater the impact on ordinary people. The report also pointed out that the Chinese economy is less likely to have a "hard landing." However, if the US economy falls into a second recession, China's GDP growth will slow down to 8.24% next year, and the consumer price index will be 3.95%, lower than the 4% policy target. The report believes that China's trade is most affected by the second recession of the US economy, and the growth rate of imports and exports next year is 4.3 and 7.9 percentage points lower than the baseline forecast. In order to cope with the external demand shock caused by this, China is unlikely to implement large-scale fiscal stimulus again, but monetary policy will have to be relaxed again. More than 10% of economic growth must remain difficult. On the other hand, the report points out that China is entering a stage of rapid growth that will gradually shift to sub-high-speed and medium-speed growth. In the future, it will be difficult for China’s economy to maintain a growth rate of more than 10%. Reproduce. Therefore, it is imperative to change the mode of economic growth and find new growth points. After the inflationary pressures have slowed down, we must push for institutional changes and adjust the economic structure. The report believes that in terms of monetary policy, China should promote the reform of interest rate marketization and the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism; optimize the credit structure; in terms of fiscal policy, it is necessary to expand the proportion of fiscal expenditures used in the real livelihood field and raise citizens' governments at all levels. The ability to supervise and constrain fiscal revenues and expenditures further shifts finance from production and construction finance in the planned economy to public finance in the market economy. Professor Chen Guangyan, director of the Asian Competitiveness Institute, also suggested that the public opinion survey should link the political achievements of local government party and city leaders with public opinion satisfaction. He said that in this way, the enthusiasm of local government investment can be guided to the investment side of the people's livelihood. The report also suggests that in the case of shrinking external market space, China's exports will create a larger domestic market; through system reforms, it will break the monopoly of state-owned enterprises and open up more market space for private enterprises. At the same time, it is necessary to implement measures to protect employment, so as to ensure that the labor released by export-oriented manufacturing can be re-employed. Then there is the speed of controlling the appreciation of the renminbi, because China’s processing trade still accounts for a large proportion. In this case, even if the renminbi appreciates twice or twice as fast, it will not help improve China’s current foreign economic structure. . Li Wenzhao said: "So, (the United States) Vice President Biden recently came to China and hoped that the Chinese renminbi would appreciate further. I think Mr. Biden is going to go back and do some research." He said that the Chinese renminbi has not appreciated, because Policy simulations show that it is possible to reduce China’s exports appropriately by raising the RMB exchange rate by 15% a year. “For China, I don’t think there is a rational head of government that can accept such a plan.” He said that the appreciation trend of the renminbi should be moderate, and China should shift from encouraging trade in the past to encouraging Chinese companies to invest abroad to improve the current trade surplus and foreign exchange management issues. Professor Zhang Shuguang, chairman of the academic committee of the Beijing Tianze Economic Research Institute, said in his speech at the forum that in the past 10 years, China’s economy has grown rapidly and inflation is fast. “In a relatively long period of time, demand is faster. The economy is too fast." The root cause of this growth pattern is the Chinese system and is driven by policy. Moreover, the Chinese economy has not yet seen a virtuous cycle of transformation. He said that in the past 30 years, although the Chinese economy has moved from a planned economy to a market economy, it still retains a strong traditional planned economy, and thus has undergone a great distortion - the full expansion of state-owned enterprises and the government's executive power over resources. There is also capital power, which is the root cause of many problems in the current Chinese economy. This has also led to a variety of “Great Leap Forwards” in China, such as the Great Leap Forward of the Metro, the Great Leap Forward, the Great Leap Forward, and the Great Leap Forward of the High-speed Rail. Therefore, local governments have a lot of money to spend, “although the government’s fiscal revenue is growing fast. But there is no place that does not feel lack of money." Therefore, "the Chinese economy needs some fundamental methods to do according to the situation" to "change the current situation of this policy system distortion", otherwise adjustment and rebalancing is difficult to achieve.  

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