Construction Information (09.07): Copper and Aluminum

Jian Jian Information (09.07): Copper and Aluminum recently added the “Risk Warning” section, which aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, so that investors can refer to it when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The period price is the reverse of the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer close may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: Copper: Due to yesterday's labor holiday in the United States, COMEX closed, causing yesterday's LME March copper trading volume was light, within a narrow range, intraday gains support at the $2700 line, compared to closing at $2722.5/ Tonnes, which have risen by US$2.5/tonne compared with the previous trading day, ranged from US$2734 to US$2702.5/tonne. LME copper stocks fell by 600 tons yesterday. Although Peru’s Minister of Labor stated that the strikes of the Toquepala and Cugjione copper miners of South Peru Copper Company were illegal, the strikes of the two copper mines did not end and provided some support for copper prices. With the steady rise of TC/RC and gradual decline of spot premium, the market expects copper inventory to increase in the later period, which will lead to heavy selling pressure above copper prices. Judging from the current trend of copper prices, the short-term resistance above the copper price is located at the first line of 2760 U.S. dollars, and the lower support is located at the price range of 2680 to 2700 U.S. dollars. The short-term copper price may fluctuate within this narrow range, but the medium and long-term trend will continue to decline. Yesterday, the domestic copper exhibited a trend of highs and lows. The main contract closed at 25,670 yuan/ton in December, down by 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic spot price fell slightly. The spot price was 28,650 to 28,750 yuan/ton yesterday and the premium was 650 to 750 yuan/ton. Aluminum: Yesterday, LME March aluminum also showed a narrow range of fluctuations, closing at 1662.5 US dollars / ton, LME aluminum stocks continued to decline to provide support for aluminum prices. The domestic Shanghai aluminum exhibited a trend of narrow fluctuations yesterday. The trading volume shrank significantly. The November contract of the main contract closed at 15,900 yuan/ton. The aluminum price will continue to oscillate in the box of 16200~15800. Yesterday, the domestic aluminum spot price changed little, it was 15820 ~ 15840 yuan / ton. Ma Hongqing: Monday is the Labor Day in the United States, and the US market is closed. The LME copper price maintains a slight fluctuation, and the spot premium has risen slightly again. However, the number of canceled warehouse receipts does not support the squeeze of the spot month. Technically, the head of the copper price has already formed. It may be a matter of time before the price falls below 2680. The current pressure level has been lowered to 2750/2780. Shanghai CU CU is expected to maintain trading range of 25600/25800 on Tuesday. Daily remarks: He Haihai: In the international market, the copper prices in London have dropped. In the morning, the price broke through the important support of $2,700, causing a long stop. The price dropped to the level of $2,680. A slight rebound, compared with the closing price of 2,702 U.S. dollars, fell by 29 U.S. dollars from the previous trading day, and closed outside the U.S. dollar at 2,720 U.S. dollars. The price was in a weak market. Shanghai copper prices continue to remain weak today. The overall transaction has shrunk. From the domestic performance point of view, the rise and fall of the price is still greatly affected by the strength of the spot, because a large number of imports, the decline in the spot premium quickly, the domestic short term there is no way out of the weak market. From the perspective of position structure, cftc last Tuesday reported that there was no major change in the position of the fund. December's position in the December Comex decreased. However, with London's trading volume, there is no major direction. The dollar continues to influence copper. The market's rise and fall On Friday, the new employment population in the US non-farm employment report in August stabilized steadily at more than 100,000. The steady growth of the US economy was maintained, and the market renewed hopes for a steady increase in interest rates for the Fed. The good data directly caused the exchange rate market to see more US dollar, non-US dollar generally fell, and the euro exchange rate returned to long-term negative return to the 1.20-1.21 range. The cancellation of warehouse receipts has been reduced to more than 8,000 tons. It seems that the possibility of an increase in inventories will increase in the future. In the short term, London prices may continue to be boring and there may be a possibility of further declines. At present, the price of the copper market, neutral bearish. Lonco needs verification for the break of the 60-day moving average. Operational advice: Moderate short-selling as the main overseas express delivery: LME market report: London, September 2 news: Affected by the stronger dollar, under the pressure of the fund selling pressure, the London Metal Exchange on Friday The benchmark (LME) benchmark copper price fell by 1.8% to close at 2,702.5 U.S. dollars, but it broke away from the five-week low hit in the session and hit a one-week low of 2,684 U.S. dollars. Peru’s Minister of Labour Neves announced that the strikes at the Toquepala and Cuajone copper mines at Southern Peru Copper were illegal. The news triggered fund selling. The company’s strike began on the 31st. Strike workers said that the strike would not stop until the request they made was approved. After the release of U.S. economic data, the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, leading to a three-month fall in copper prices. The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased significantly in August, and the unemployment rate dropped to a three-year low, suggesting that the U.S. economy is emerging from its recent soft landing. As a result, the U.S. dollar rebounded sharply across the board. The stronger US dollar has led to lower demand for copper by investors outside the United States. Analysts said that the US dollar strengthened after the release of favorable economic data in the United States and that copper was under pressure. Calyon analyst Ahmed said: “The dollar has a great influence on copper prices, but supply and demand, as well as the macro situation are also weakening. "Ahmed believes that the price of copper will be lowered to $2,490 in the coming weeks and it will be tested at the end of the year at $2,200. Not all analysts are so bearish." Stern Bay of Barclays Capital said, "The price of copper is clearly shifting to the trading range." At the low end, many market participants, including funds and consumer companies, used this time to adjust the pickup, so copper prices have recovered from their lows. “Trnbe expects copper prices to remain firm during the year, supported by strong demand in the fourth quarter. The price of nickel fell by 3% in three months and was lower by 12,050 US dollars for the whole day, closing at 12,225 US dollars. Three-month aluminum fell nearly 2% from 1,687 US dollars per ton to 1,654. Intraday hit a low of 1,644.50 since June 15. Sternbe believes that today is a short-term correction and the overall upward trend does not change. COMEX Copper City News: New York, September 2 News: Copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) contracted its intraday low of a 9-day low on Friday, but still closed lower, due to speculative selling pressure. The Agricultural Employment Population report came close to analysts' estimates and prompted the dollar to rise. A New York metal trader said, "The trend of the dollar is the reason for the fund's sell-off. When the dollar weakened, they bought a large amount of copper to push up the price, but when the dollar went strong they would It will be put on the market to sell. "But the trader also said, "There was a short-covering buying at the end of the session and a settlement before the weekend. The market has been oversold and there will be some technical buying." After the fund's sell-off pressure, the price fell slightly. However, the short-covering of the short-term fund was used to recover the price slightly. December copper prices fell 85 points to end at 123.95 cents. The day was lower at 122.00 cents and higher at 124.70 cents. After the release of the US economic data, the US dollar strengthened against major currencies and became the main reason for the decline in prices. The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased significantly in August, and the unemployment rate dropped to a three-year low, suggesting that the U.S. economy is emerging from its recent soft landing. As a result, the U.S. dollar rebounded sharply across the board. The stronger US dollar has led to lower demand for copper by investors outside the United States. Dealers said that the global demand for copper is on a rising trend, which will provide some support for the price of copper, and will continue to drive price increases in the medium to long term. December copper price support is expected to support 122.00 cents, 121.50 cents and 121.00 cents.

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