Factors Affecting the Development Trend of China's Petrochemical Industry in 2011

In 2011, the main factors influencing the economic operation of the petroleum and chemical industries are the domestic macroeconomic trends and regulatory policy orientation, the development trend of related industries, and the outlook for world economic recovery. Among them, domestic factors are decisive factors.

The first is the analysis of domestic macroeconomic trends and regulatory policies. Let us first talk about the trend of macroeconomics. In 2010, China's GDP growth rate reached 10.3%. During the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10.4%, and the continued strong growth of the macro economy has directly promoted the rapid development of the petroleum and chemical industries. The year 2011 is the first year of China's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” and the macroeconomic situation will be further consolidated. However, given the limited growth in exports and investment, the promotion of domestic demand needs to be strengthened. Therefore, China's GDP growth rate will slow down and is expected to be around 9.5%.

Let us talk about the direction of macro-control policies. In 2011, the basic orientation of domestic macroeconomic policies was "proactive, prudent, and flexible", that is, the implementation of proactive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies to maintain a stable and healthy economy. The policy directions worthy of attention in the future include the following aspects: the price adjustment mechanism for refined oil products, energy price adjustments, exchange rate changes, resource tax reforms, energy conservation and emission reductions, raising industry access thresholds, and environmental taxes.

The second is the analysis of the development status of major domestic related industries. The petroleum and chemical industries are highly relevant. The development of related industries has a direct and significant impact on the petrochemical industry. One is agriculture. In 2011, the country will continue to increase investment in agriculture, maintain the stability of the purchase price of agricultural products, and promote the sustained and rapid growth of farmers' income. With the development of rural economy, farmers' investment in agriculture will also increase. In the long run, China’s agricultural demand for agricultural chemicals will maintain a relatively stable growth pattern. The second is the car. In 2011, China's auto sales will exceed 20 million vehicles. The continuous development of the automotive industry will directly boost the demand for refined oil, lubricants, additives, coatings, engineering plastics, and rubber sealing materials. The third is real estate. The real estate industry is an important application field for chemical products such as coatings, plastic pipe profiles, and polyurethanes. In 2011, the country’s macro-control policies on real estate may be more severe, but the construction speed of affordable housing and low-cost housing will accelerate. With the acceleration of urbanization in China, real estate development in small and medium-sized cities and rural areas will accelerate. Starting from the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, China will use 20 years to solve the problem of semi-urbanization, so that the urbanization rate in China will reach 65% by 2030. Therefore, the real estate industry in the future will still maintain the consumer demand for related chemical products. The fourth is textiles. In 2011, China's textile industry will continue to maintain a steady and rapid growth momentum, but with the slowdown in domestic and foreign market demand, the growth rate will be weakened compared to last year, thus the demand for chemical products such as synthetic fiber monomers and other related fields. It will slow down accordingly. The fifth is plastic products. Plastic products are the major downstream industries for synthetic resins. Due to strong domestic demand, China's plastic products industry has maintained rapid growth over the years. With the rapid growth of plastic products, the demand for synthetic resins has also expanded accordingly. In 2010, domestic synthetic resin production also increased by 18.3%. In the coming years, domestic plastic products will still maintain rapid growth, and the demand for synthetic resins will continue to expand.

The third is the analysis of the outlook for world economic recovery. In 2010, the world economy, under the stimulation of major national policies, has recovered hard in a complex environment. In 2011, the world economy will continue to recover, but it will slow down. On December 1, 2010, the UN released the “World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2011” report that the world economy grew by 3.6% in 2010, and it will decline to 3.2% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. Developing countries are the main driving force for world economic growth in the future.

In 2011, the main risks affecting the recovery of the world economy are the sovereign debt crisis, the devaluation of the US dollar, the growth of asset bubbles and inflation, the high unemployment rate in developed economies, and the prevalence of international trade protectionism.