Policy favors synthetic rubber

Last week, outstanding performance of synthetic rubber, styrene butadiene rubber, butadiene rubber weekly gains were at 6% and above, ranking first in the list of rising chemicals. The industry expects that the synthetic rubber market is expected to further improve under the support of policy support and downstream demand. The logic of this rebound is mainly the following:

First, policy support, the government's supporting role for natural rubber storage is obvious. It is understood that the relevant departments have started to collect and store work, and they have collected and stored 150,000 to 200,000 tons of natural rubber in batches in units of Hainan State Farms and Yunnan Agricultural Reclamation. It is reported that before the end of the year, the quantity of storage will be 60,000 tons, and the price will be 24,600 yuan/ton, which will be mainly purchased from the spot market. The rest will start next year. This to a certain extent, pulling natural rubber prices higher, thus driving the synthetic rubber market to better.

The second is cost support. The steady rise in butadiene prices has brought about cost support, which is good for the synthetic rubber market. Butadiene has fallen from the high of 21.7 yuan per ton to the latest 12,000 yuan per ton, with an interval of up to 50%. Currently, it is near the cost price, and the willingness of enterprises to maintain the price of parking is strong. According to the latest data, Beijing Dongfang's 30,000-ton/year butadiene plant was shut down and repaired on September 11 and the specific restart time was to be determined; Qixiang Tengda's 100,000-ton/year butadiene plant was currently under overhaul and started at around 70%. Fushun Petrochemical's 30,000-ton/year butadiene plant is parked.

Third, the demand is expected to be good. On the one hand, due to installation reasons, Sinopec and Sinopec styrene-butadiene rubber market are not stocked, and the market supply is relatively tight. Second, as the car enters the traditional sales season, the market expects that demand for tires will increase. The recent China Automobile Association’s November national automobile production and sales data showed that the total sales volume in November was 79.10 million, an increase of 11.52% compared with the previous period and an increase of 8.16% year-on-year. The monthly figures and the year-on-year increase were in different degrees, among which the growth rate of passenger cars was faster than Commercial vehicles are expected to produce more than 19 million vehicles a year.