The contradiction between supply and demand highlights the impact of the photovoltaic pattern

PV development momentum is still good, still need to break

In 2013, the development of the photovoltaic industry received unprecedented attention from the government. The external investment environment has been greatly improved, and the business conditions of the company have gradually improved. From various indications, the “low-key” PV industry in 2013 will be ushered in a small climax of development and new changes in the industry pattern in 2014. The pressure on the entire PV industry is still relatively high. In this issue, the refining Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, CCID think tank, part of the view and content of the analysis of the development of the photovoltaic situation in 2014, is expected to share with readers.
Contradictions between supply and demand

After the photovoltaic industry experienced nearly six quarters of losses, since the second quarter of 2013, some companies have turned losses into profits. Benefiting from the rise of Japan, the United States and the domestic market, the situation of imbalance between supply and demand in the photovoltaic market has been alleviated to a certain extent, and product prices have also stabilized and rebounded. At the same time, driven by domestic policy guidance, when the leading enterprises of photovoltaics are fully operational, they are still actively seeking small and medium-sized enterprises for their foundry; local governments also continue to give preferential policies to enterprises, and urge enterprises to resume work, and enterprises with insufficient capacity utilization have emerged. The phenomenon of full-scale production and expansion of production capacity has been repeated.

However, market supply has accelerated in a short period of time, but market demand is not optimistic. In the major international markets, demand in Europe is shrinking, and there are “limit and limited” restrictions on China's PV companies, and there is less room for market demand. In the Japanese market, due to the high subsidies, the government burden is heavier and may brake at any time. Rich, shale gas is booming, the PV market has limited potential, and there are “double-reverse” side effects; emerging markets such as India and South Africa also have large uncertainties. Due to the potential risks of localization protection in the domestic market, it will also weaken the scale-up and expansion of the domestic market. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the photovoltaic industry may reproduce the situation of oversupply and arbitrarily competition in the previous two years.

Manufacturing industry is facing shock

As the gross profit of photovoltaic manufacturing declines, some large-scale photovoltaic enterprises in China keep the technologically advanced production lines, shut down the production lines with higher costs, and entrust the redundant orders to third-party foundries in order to reduce production costs. Some foreign companies, such as Sunpower and other companies in the United States, have also been through the large-scale electronic service companies Flextronices and Jabil foundry, the photovoltaic industry pattern appears to have a significant momentum in manufacturing service. According to this development trend, the photovoltaic industry has emerged as a large-scale foundry company of “Foxconn-like” in the manufacturing sector, which will impact the existing pattern of the domestic PV industry.

At present, the structure of China's component products is not reasonable, the middle and low-end production capacity is excessive, the high-end production capacity is insufficient, and the homogenization situation is still serious. It is easy to generate price wars and lose the high-quality market in international competition. For example, in the second quarter of 2013, when China's PV companies were fighting for the 0.55 Euro/W common component market, Japan's Sanyo and US Sunpower enjoyed an exclusive 1 Euro/W efficient component market segment. At the same time, the production cost of the products with higher automation level is higher than that of labor, which also forces the transformation and upgrading of the photovoltaic industry.

Under the new development situation, China's PV industry will not only face a new round of overcapacity caused by the rapid growth of the domestic market in 2014, but also face profound changes brought about by changes in the production methods of photovoltaic products.

Industry has not broken the dilemma

With the expansion of the photovoltaic application market, the market demand for polysilicon will gradually increase. In 2013, global polysilicon production will reach 250,000 tons, and China's output will be about 8 tons, up 12.7% year-on-year. It ranks first in the world for three consecutive years, but it can only meet 50% of China's market demand. Foreign polysilicon products evade “double-reverse” tariffs through processing trade, and continue to dump low prices in China. In 2014, polysilicon prices will be below US$20/kg, and domestic PV companies will still bear low-price pressure.

Data show that global PV module production will reach 40GW in 2013, up 9% year-on-year. Among them, the component production in Europe, Japan and the United States is 3.5GW, 2.8GW and 1.2GW, respectively. China's PV module production is about 26GW, up 13% year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. In terms of exports, China's PV module exports amounted to approximately 16GW, and its export value was approximately US$10 billion, a decrease of 27% year-on-year. Among them, the share of exports to Europe fell from 65% to 30%; Japan jumped to the top and became the largest exporter, with exports of about 2.2 billion US dollars, accounting for 22% of total exports. Exports to the United States, India and South Africa accounted for 10%, 5.2% and 4.5%, respectively, showing diversified developments. In terms of imports, affected by the US “double opposition”, mainland enterprises have used Taiwan's battery to avoid trade barriers. In 2013, imports from Taiwan exceeded US$1 billion, accounting for about 60% of China's total solar battery imports.

Although the output of battery components continues to show growth, it is also facing the rising prices of raw materials such as polysilicon, third-party battery chips, and the uncertainty of foreign markets. It is expected that in 2014, the domestic PV industry will still face the stage of overcapacity, and the pressure for transformation and upgrading is slightly greater.

Multi-party accelerated industrial integration

Strengthening the leading role of PV companies and enhancing the voice of the international PV industry is crucial to the development of the domestic PV industry. CCID think tank pointed out that the domestic photovoltaic industry must first respect the market rules to guide the merger and reorganization of the industry, and resolutely promote the "de-capacity" of the photovoltaic industry. We will continue the policy of “supporting a batch”, “integrating a batch”, “eliminating a batch”, and “transferring a batch”, and implementing the “introduction” and “going out” strategies.

Encourage PV companies to innovate international trade methods, optimize the distribution of manufacturing origins, carry out investment and production cooperation abroad, and promote the international development of photovoltaic enterprises. On the one hand, optimize the distribution of manufacturing origin, carry out investment and production cooperation outside the country, and strengthen the leading role of the domestic photovoltaic industry in the photovoltaic industry; on the other hand, continue to support the dominant enterprises to become bigger, stronger and more refined. Encourage and support enterprises to independently innovate and establish and improve national-level photovoltaic technology innovation and R&D centers. Through the innovative and independent enhancement of independent technologies and enhance their core competitiveness, they will further solve the key and common technical problems of industrial development.

At the same time, the healthy development of the domestic photovoltaic industry should also pay attention to the coordination and implementation of relevant plans to achieve the purpose of orderly development of the photovoltaic industry. CCID thinks that at present, China's photovoltaic industry policy promotion method is relatively simple, the main application mode is large-scale photovoltaic power station, which is not conducive to the diversified application of photovoltaic products, and the lack of long-term supervision of the industry, it is also easy to promote the disorderly development of power station construction. And local protectionism requires countries and localities to take the lead in coordinating photovoltaic power generation planning and convergence, and strengthen photovoltaic power generation planning and annual implementation guidance.

Local governments should make power generation planning and implementation plans on the basis of local resources, power grid construction and national total control, improve market transparency, promote photovoltaic power station construction in an orderly manner, and avoid “local protection” to hinder domestic PV industry. healthy growth.

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