Coastal "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" to start again: speed increase and structural upgrade

Mr. Qiu Yuhua, deputy of Guangzhou Municipal People's Congress and chairman of Guangzhou Huaanda Industrial Co., Ltd., is currently investing in an environmentally friendly chiller project in Feidong County, Hefei City, Anhui Province. “It will be put into production in June next year.” Choosing to set up a plant in Hefei, Qiu Yuhua is mainly based on the consideration of upstream and downstream industries. The local area not only has the raw materials and other resources needed for the project, but also several major air conditioners and refrigerator manufacturers have invested nearby. Set up a factory. "The policy and investment environment are very good, and there is no problem in recruiting." He told the First Financial Daily.   Like Qiu Yuhua, Wang Wei, the owner of Dongguan Beijia Shoes Factory, is also investing in Chongqing. "It is much easier to recruit than there." After the financial crisis, the growth rate of foreign trade exports was blocked, the "labor shortage" became more and more fierce, the transfer of coastal industries to the central and western regions accelerated, and the resources and environment carrying space became increasingly saturated. At the same time, the central and western regions were improve dramatically. In the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", how do you start again in the coastal areas where the export-oriented economy is the mainstay and is experiencing the transformation of "pain"? The growth rate of the province's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” shows that the economic indicators have been lowered in several major provinces in the east. Guangdong, the economy's largest province, is scheduled to grow at an average annual growth rate of more than 8% during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. This expectation is not only one percentage point lower than the 11th Five-Year Plan, but also lower than many provinces in China. aims. Chen Hongyu, deputy president of the Party School of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, pointed out that the average annual growth rate of 8% is to change the mode of economic development. If the economic indicators are set too high, high investment rates are inevitable to ensure that if fixed assets investment grows too fast, All regions will compete for investment and compete for projects, which is not conducive to calm down to adjust the economic structure. In addition, 8% is reserved, the growth rate will not be too slow, and at the same time, economic restructuring can be achieved. The “12th Five-Year” GDP growth target planned by Shandong is an average annual growth rate of 9%. The target of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” was an average annual growth rate of 10%. “For most of the past three decades, the coastal areas have maintained a faster growth rate than the Midwest.” Cheng Jiansan, director of the Pearl River Regional Economic Research Center of the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, told this newspaper that with the development of the country’s western region The implementation of strategies such as the rise of Central China and the impact of financial crisis, the trend of faster growth in the central and western regions across the east is continuing to strengthen, which is an inevitable trend. Yu Shugong, director of the Department of Economics of the Party School of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, said that after the financial crisis, the eastern region was mainly affected, while the central and western regions had less impact. After the crisis, the country expanded its investment mainly in the central and western regions. “The eastern region is undergoing a transitional 'pain', while the central and western regions are further expanding their investment while undertaking the transfer of coastal industries. In addition, the original base in the east is already relatively large, and the growth rate will naturally be slower.” He pointed out that The development level of the eastern region has been relatively high. For example, the per capita GDP of the Pearl River Delta has reached nearly 10,000 US dollars and entered the ranks of developed economies. At this time, the slowdown in growth is normal. If the rapid growth is maintained, it will cause problems. On the one hand, the eastern region must strive to accelerate the transformation and upgrading, on the other hand, it must make a fuss in improving people's livelihood, so that more ordinary people can enjoy the fruits of reform and development. While accelerating the transformation and upgrading, the future development of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong, which rank among the top three in the national economy, is also very interesting. Although Guangdong is still the largest economic province, it has faced strong challenges from the rankings of Su, Lu, and especially Jiangsu in recent years. According to the indicators of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the average annual growth rate of Jiangsu’s “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” economic aggregate is set at 10%, which is two percentage points higher than Guangdong. Ye Xingqing, director of the Rural Research Office of the State Council, said in Guangdong last October that the gap between Guangdong and Jiangsu and Shandong has been shrinking in the past five years, especially in Jiangsu. The gap between Jiangsu and Guangdong has ranged from 82.4:100 in 2005 to 87.2:100 in 2009, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points in five years. Cheng Jiansan told this newspaper that Guangdong is not as good as Su and Lu in terms of land resources, energy and heavy chemical industry. Jiangsu attracts foreign investment later than Guangdong, but it also brings late-comer advantage, that is, the industrial level of absorption is higher than that of Guangdong. The industrial layout is also better than Guangdong. In the view of Cheng Jiansan, the pressure of Guangdong's industrial transformation and upgrading has been relatively large. Guangdong's traditional industries and low value-added industries account for the highest proportion, while the resources in industrial investment and emerging industries are not as good as those in Jiangsu and Shandong. Once the pace of transformation and upgrading is slow, the path dependence on the original traditional model will be greater, and the more it is not conducive to industrial transformation and upgrading. Compared with Guangdong, Jiangsu has obvious advantages in land resources and talents. The fixed assets investment during the 11th Five-Year Plan period is relatively strong, and the role of investment will appear in the next few years. Between cities, in 2010, although Guangzhou's GDP reached 1,060.448 billion yuan, and became the first city in the country's many sub-provincial cities and prefecture-level cities to enter the GDP trillion club, but Guangzhou, the only national central city in South China, Faced with many serious challenges. "There are two models in front of us, Beijing and Shanghai. There are a lot of followers in the back, mainly Shenzhen, Tianjin, Suzhou and Chongqing. It can be said that the front of the pacesetter is running very fast, and the rear pursuits are very tight. Guangzhou Mayor Wan Qingliang expressed the "sorrow" theory of "the pace of the fast-moving and chasing the soldiers" in the previous "two sessions" in Guangzhou. The most fierce pursuit of Guangzhou is not Shenzhen and Suzhou, but Tianjin. As early as July 2009, Zhu Xiaodan, a member of the Standing Committee of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, executive deputy governor, and then secretary of the Guangzhou Municipal Party Committee, had reminded all departments at all levels to have a sense of urgency: "I vaguely feel that I have trillions in Guangzhou. In the next one or two years, Tianjin’s economic aggregate may catch up with Guangzhou.” The reporter’s statistics show that the ratio of Tianjin’s total economic output in the past four years has risen rapidly from 71.4% in 2006 to 85% in 2010. . Although Guangzhou has surpassed Tianjin since 1986, Tianjin's GDP growth rate was 17.4% last year, Guangzhou was 13%, and Tianjin was more than 4 percentage points faster than Guangzhou. If there is still such a growth gap during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the position of Guangzhou’s “third” will be in jeopardy. In 2009, some experts pointed out that Tianjin is not only the development speed in the forefront of the country, but also the high added value of technology, that is to say, the quality is very good. Moreover, a large number of large projects in Tianjin have just started, and the benefits will only be presented for a while. Once the benefits are generated, the strength of Tianjin will be obvious. Despite the Asian Games, the fixed asset investment in Guangzhou has increased by 22.7% to 326.3 billion yuan in the past year. However, among the major cities in China, Tianjin and Chongqing have exceeded 600 billion yuan, and Beijing and Shanghai have exceeded 5000. 100 million yuan, Suzhou reached 360 billion yuan, only the province's brother Shenzhen is slightly lower than Guangzhou. As the most important window for China's reform and opening up, Shenzhen's GDP last year was still ahead of Suzhou and Tianjin, but in the first three quarters of last year, Shenzhen's GDP was once surpassed by Suzhou. Tan Gang, vice president of the Shenzhen Municipal Party School, told this reporter that even if it was not overtaken by Suzhou this year, according to the current growth rate, the future including Suzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing is also a trend. Talking about the reasons for being overtaken, Tan Gang said that the effect of Shenzhen's investment scale on economic growth is much lower than that of other cities, especially industrial investment. The land area of ​​Shenzhen is only one-third of that of Suzhou. Due to the small size of the land, there are obvious shortcomings and shortcomings in attracting investment and introducing large projects. Tan Gang believes that from the perspective of Shenzhen's future development, it is of course necessary to ensure the healthy growth of the economy, but more importantly, it should reflect the characteristics and core competitiveness of Shenzhen's economy. Peng Yu, director of the Scientific Research Department of the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that Tianjin's rapid growth will continue in the next few years. Compared with Tianjin, Guangzhou should focus more on industrial restructuring and the construction of “Happy Guangzhou”. “We still have to work hard. Find ways to rebuild the advantage."

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