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On June 19 last year, the central bank announced the "second exchange rate reform", and the RMB exchange rate returned to the path determined by the 2005 exchange reform. In the past year, the RMB exchange rate has once again shown increased volatility, while the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued its appreciation process, with a total appreciation of 5.4%. However, the appreciation is not the only “score†of the RMB since the second exchange rate reform. The industry has found that over the past year, the RMB exchange rate has increasingly shown the characteristics of “referring to a basket of currencies†rather than monopolizing the US dollar exchange rate. This means that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is gradually becoming a real “reference to a basket of currencies, with management. The floating exchange rate system" is moving forward.
Renminbi exchange rate reform continued to appreciate. On July 21, 2005, China's central bank announced a one-time appreciation of the RMB exchange rate of 2.1%, and began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB opened the exchange improvement process, the volatility of the RMB exchange rate gradually increased, and embarked on a small, gradual appreciation path. From the beginning of the exchange reform in 2005 to 2008, the cumulative appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar reached 18%. However, the financial crisis that began in the United States in 2008 disrupted the RMB exchange improvement process. In order to withstand the impact of the international financial crisis, since September 2008, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has fluctuated slightly around 6.8235, and the RMB exchange rate has returned to the state linked to the US dollar exchange rate before the exchange rate reform. At that time, this degree was seen as a "regression" of the RMB exchange rate mechanism, but for now, this is just an episode in the long-term improvement of the RMB. As the crisis haze gradually dispersed, on June 19, 2010, the central bank re-announced the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and initiated the “secondary exchange reformâ€. "Furtherly promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, focusing on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies for adjustment." The central bank said in the restart of the exchange reform, "the RMB exchange rate will not be adjusted once and the central bank will continue to follow the The announced exchange rate fluctuation range of the foreign exchange market dynamically manages and regulates the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, keeping the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.†At present, the trend of the RMB exchange rate since the restart of the exchange rate has basically continued in 2005. The road to exchange reform: The renminbi has appreciated slightly and gradually against the US dollar, while bilateral volatility has gradually increased. From June last year to the end of the year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar showed greater volatility. According to statistics from the central bank, during this period, the maximum single-day appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was 0.43%, close to the upper limit of 0.5%, and the maximum depreciation reached 0.36%. Since entering 2011, the unilateral appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate has become more apparent. In the second half of last year, the RMB appreciated against the US dollar by 3%, and as of June 16, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar reached 2.1% this year. “The renminbi continues to appreciate, and the volatility is obviously stronger than during the crisis, but it is similar to that before the crisis.†A foreign exchange trader of a joint-stock bank summed up the RMB exchange rate since the “second exchange reformâ€. "The general direction of appreciation should be unchanged, and the expectation of appreciation is still relatively strong." A person from the international business department of a state-owned bank said that the appreciation of the renminbi will continue from all aspects of the balance of payments surplus and China's economic growth. Tend to equilibrium exchange rate. In addition, from the perspective of promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, the renminbi also needs to maintain its strength and relative stability. Of course, the appreciation is not the only "outcome" since the restart of the exchange reform. The above traders pointed out that over the past year, it has clearly felt that the standardization and maturity of foreign exchange market transactions have been improved, and the transactions of various derivatives are also very active. A state-owned banker said that since the resumption of the exchange reform, the demand for corporate hedging has increased significantly, and the long-term foreign exchange settlement and sales business of commercial banks has grown significantly. This shows that the company’s risk aversion awareness is further improved and it is increasingly adapting to the floating exchange rate. surroundings. From a single peg to the "a basket of currencies" , if only the second exchange reform is regarded as a simple continuation of the 2005 exchange rate reform, it may not be able to correctly grasp the trend of the future RMB exchange rate. In fact, some experts have found that since the second exchange rate reform, the biggest progress of the RMB exchange rate has been: more and more a reference to a basket of currencies, rather than just a single dollar exchange rate. Industrial Bank senior economist Lu political commissar pointed out that since the second exchange reform, the linear trend of the RMB exchange rate index of the Industrial Bank integrated self-designed performance of a horizontal line, which indicates that "the main concern being the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar change from the past, turned to The relative stability of a basket of currency exchange rates." The Industrial Bank's RMB Composite Exchange Rate Index is a measure of the exchange rate of the RMB against 15 currencies and is used to monitor the movement of the Renminbi against a basket of currencies. The 15 currencies are Australian dollar, Argentine peso, Canadian dollar, New Taiwan dollar, Euro, Hong Kong dollar, Indonesian rupee, Japanese yen, Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, Russian ruble, Singapore dollar, Thai baht, British pound and US dollar. “The renminbi is more stable against a basket of currencies than in the past, and it is a major feature since the second exchange reform.†Lu’s political commissar said that this means judging the future trend of the renminbi exchange rate from the stability of a basket of currencies. It is more meaningful to pay attention to changes in the dollar exchange rate In fact, when the central bank restarted the exchange reform in June last year, it emphasized that if the RMB exchange rate is only pegged to a single currency, it will not be able to adapt to the diversification of trade and investment currencies, nor can it reflect the actual level of the exchange rate. Therefore, under the current pattern of diversification of trade and capital exchanges, enterprises and residents should not simply measure the RMB exchange rate based on the US dollar. Instead, they should shift from the bilateral exchange rate to the multilateral exchange rate, and look at the RMB exchange rate level in terms of changes in the RMB relative to a basket of currencies. "This also marks the further progress of the RMB exchange rate to a managed floating exchange rate system with a real reference to a basket of currencies," Lu said.
Renminbi exchange rate reform continued to appreciate. On July 21, 2005, China's central bank announced a one-time appreciation of the RMB exchange rate of 2.1%, and began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. The RMB opened the exchange improvement process, the volatility of the RMB exchange rate gradually increased, and embarked on a small, gradual appreciation path. From the beginning of the exchange reform in 2005 to 2008, the cumulative appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar reached 18%. However, the financial crisis that began in the United States in 2008 disrupted the RMB exchange improvement process. In order to withstand the impact of the international financial crisis, since September 2008, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has fluctuated slightly around 6.8235, and the RMB exchange rate has returned to the state linked to the US dollar exchange rate before the exchange rate reform. At that time, this degree was seen as a "regression" of the RMB exchange rate mechanism, but for now, this is just an episode in the long-term improvement of the RMB. As the crisis haze gradually dispersed, on June 19, 2010, the central bank re-announced the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and initiated the “secondary exchange reformâ€. "Furtherly promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, focusing on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies for adjustment." The central bank said in the restart of the exchange reform, "the RMB exchange rate will not be adjusted once and the central bank will continue to follow the The announced exchange rate fluctuation range of the foreign exchange market dynamically manages and regulates the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, keeping the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.†At present, the trend of the RMB exchange rate since the restart of the exchange rate has basically continued in 2005. The road to exchange reform: The renminbi has appreciated slightly and gradually against the US dollar, while bilateral volatility has gradually increased. From June last year to the end of the year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar showed greater volatility. According to statistics from the central bank, during this period, the maximum single-day appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was 0.43%, close to the upper limit of 0.5%, and the maximum depreciation reached 0.36%. Since entering 2011, the unilateral appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate has become more apparent. In the second half of last year, the RMB appreciated against the US dollar by 3%, and as of June 16, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar reached 2.1% this year. “The renminbi continues to appreciate, and the volatility is obviously stronger than during the crisis, but it is similar to that before the crisis.†A foreign exchange trader of a joint-stock bank summed up the RMB exchange rate since the “second exchange reformâ€. "The general direction of appreciation should be unchanged, and the expectation of appreciation is still relatively strong." A person from the international business department of a state-owned bank said that the appreciation of the renminbi will continue from all aspects of the balance of payments surplus and China's economic growth. Tend to equilibrium exchange rate. In addition, from the perspective of promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, the renminbi also needs to maintain its strength and relative stability. Of course, the appreciation is not the only "outcome" since the restart of the exchange reform. The above traders pointed out that over the past year, it has clearly felt that the standardization and maturity of foreign exchange market transactions have been improved, and the transactions of various derivatives are also very active. A state-owned banker said that since the resumption of the exchange reform, the demand for corporate hedging has increased significantly, and the long-term foreign exchange settlement and sales business of commercial banks has grown significantly. This shows that the company’s risk aversion awareness is further improved and it is increasingly adapting to the floating exchange rate. surroundings. From a single peg to the "a basket of currencies" , if only the second exchange reform is regarded as a simple continuation of the 2005 exchange rate reform, it may not be able to correctly grasp the trend of the future RMB exchange rate. In fact, some experts have found that since the second exchange rate reform, the biggest progress of the RMB exchange rate has been: more and more a reference to a basket of currencies, rather than just a single dollar exchange rate. Industrial Bank senior economist Lu political commissar pointed out that since the second exchange reform, the linear trend of the RMB exchange rate index of the Industrial Bank integrated self-designed performance of a horizontal line, which indicates that "the main concern being the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar change from the past, turned to The relative stability of a basket of currency exchange rates." The Industrial Bank's RMB Composite Exchange Rate Index is a measure of the exchange rate of the RMB against 15 currencies and is used to monitor the movement of the Renminbi against a basket of currencies. The 15 currencies are Australian dollar, Argentine peso, Canadian dollar, New Taiwan dollar, Euro, Hong Kong dollar, Indonesian rupee, Japanese yen, Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, Russian ruble, Singapore dollar, Thai baht, British pound and US dollar. “The renminbi is more stable against a basket of currencies than in the past, and it is a major feature since the second exchange reform.†Lu’s political commissar said that this means judging the future trend of the renminbi exchange rate from the stability of a basket of currencies. It is more meaningful to pay attention to changes in the dollar exchange rate In fact, when the central bank restarted the exchange reform in June last year, it emphasized that if the RMB exchange rate is only pegged to a single currency, it will not be able to adapt to the diversification of trade and investment currencies, nor can it reflect the actual level of the exchange rate. Therefore, under the current pattern of diversification of trade and capital exchanges, enterprises and residents should not simply measure the RMB exchange rate based on the US dollar. Instead, they should shift from the bilateral exchange rate to the multilateral exchange rate, and look at the RMB exchange rate level in terms of changes in the RMB relative to a basket of currencies. "This also marks the further progress of the RMB exchange rate to a managed floating exchange rate system with a real reference to a basket of currencies," Lu said.
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