Outlook of Production and Operation Situation of Aluminum Profiles in China in 2011

2011 is the first year of China's "12th Five-Year Plan" period. Since the reform and opening up to 30 years ago, China's aluminum extrusion industry has been booming. The product structure has been dominated by building materials. With the continuous improvement of China's industrial level and scale, industrial timber production has also increased year by year. In the industries of automobile manufacturing, rail transportation, electric power, machinery and equipment manufacturing, and home appliances, the demand for aluminum profiles has increased rapidly, and new products, new processes, and new uses of aluminum profiles have appeared continuously, which has promoted technological progress and sustained and healthy development of the industry. It has increased from 1.72 million tons in 2001 to 10 million tons in 2010, with a compound growth rate of 20%. The total output and total consumption of aluminum profiles ranked first in the world. In 2010, exports of aluminum profiles were 700,000 tons. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, China's exports will maintain a steady development trend.

The new features of China's aluminum industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan period mainly include the following aspects:

First, China's aluminum extrusion industry is still in the late stage of scale-based expansion. From the scale of projects under construction, especially in 2011-2013, aluminum extrusion capacity is still increasing. This is because the homogeneity of current products leads to fierce competition in the market. In order to compete in the market with low-cost means, companies often adopt large-scale production with the purpose of diluting the cost. For this reason, companies have put on equipment and increased production capacity. This kind of non-different competitive means will not be too effective for the aluminum extrusion industry that is in its mature stage. Therefore, this scaled and extensible growth trend should show a trend of weakening in the late period of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. .

Second: The product structure of aluminum extrusions will be significantly adjusted. This adjustment is reflected in the adjustment between the varieties of aluminum profiles for construction; the adjustment between aluminum profiles for construction and industrial aluminum profiles. Instead, it will be broken bridge heat insulation and energy saving building aluminum profiles. The adjustment between architectural aluminum and industrial aluminum is an inevitable trend. Although in the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the country still needs to continue to develop the western region, it is still necessary to speed up the construction of cities and towns. However, the market for aluminum profile expansion is much smaller than that of the previous national infrastructure market represented by housing. From this aspect, the construction of aluminum profiles is in an absolute oversupply situation. At present, more than 70% of aluminum extrusion projects under construction are aluminum products for industrial use. Listed companies raise nearly 100% of the industrial aluminum projects under construction. The practice in the aluminum extrusion industry is sufficient to illustrate aluminum extrusion. Pressing product structure adjustment trend.

Third: In terms of business mode, aluminum extrusion companies have changed from an incremental type to an intensional type. Products should be developed into deep processing extensions and industrial profiles processing.

During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, it is expected that there will be hot markets for aluminum profiles: First, the broken bridge thermal insulation and energy-saving aluminum profiles for the housing construction industry, and the photovoltaic wall aluminum profile market; and second, the solar energy, wind energy, and nuclear energy for the renewable energy industry. Aluminum extrusion market; Third, aluminum extrusion market for transportation vehicle manufacturing; Fourth, aluminum extrusion market for power grid construction.

In the field of building profiles. Building profiles have always been closely linked with the construction industry and the process of urbanization. With economic development, by 2009, the urban population in China has reached 622 million people, and the urbanization rate has increased to 46.6%. It is estimated that by 2015, China's urbanization level will exceed 50%.

In the field of industrial timber. In China, the proportion of building profiles is high, while in foreign countries, the proportion of industrial profiles is high. Industrial profiles are often technically difficult and have high added value. From the application perspective, the construction industry is still the main field of aluminum profile applications, and consumption has increased year by year.

China's consumption of aluminum profiles in the industrial sector accounts for only 32% of the world. With the economic development and the improvement of industrial technology, aluminum profiles have great potential for consumption in the industrial sector. It is estimated that the proportion of industrial aluminum consumption in 2015 will reach around 45-50%. According to the relevant plans of the Chinese government, the proportion of industrial aluminum in the total aluminum consumption will be close to 70% in the next 10 years.

In automotive aluminum. According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto production and sales volume is expected to exceed 17 million vehicles in 2010, reaching the peak level of the annual output of the global automotive industry.

The increase in automobile production and sales volume has positive effect on the market of aluminum processing products, and the average consumption of 100 kg of aluminum processing products per vehicle is calculated. In 2009, the consumption of aluminum processing products exceeded 1.3 million tons. Therefore, with the rapid development of China's automobile manufacturing industry and the increase in the amount of aluminum used in automobiles, it is bound to provide a vast market for the aluminum processing industry including aluminum profiles.

In terms of aluminum profiles for trains and urban rail transit. On November 22, 2009, the Ministry of Railways officially announced the latest adjustment plan for the Medium and Long-Term Railway Network Plan. The total scale of China’s railway construction investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan in 12 years, and the railway will add more than 40,000 kilometers of operating mileage. By 2020, the railway mileage of over 250 kilometers per hour in China will reach 16,000 kilometers. According to the plan, the speed of trains on passenger lines will reach 200 kilometers per hour. Due to its lightweight, tightness, and high resistance to corrosion, aluminum profiles have an absolute advantage in high-speed trains with a speed of 200 kilometers per hour. The average total amount of aluminum for each car is about 10 tons, of which more than 90% are large-section hollow aluminum profiles.

In the rail transportation industry, according to the latest national approvals and plans, there are currently 28 metropolitan cities in the country that have been approved for subway construction plans. In 2010, China will build 480 miles of subways, and the total mileage in 2020 will reach 6,100 kilometers. Calculated with 10 cars per kilometer, each car needs an average of 3 tons of aluminum profiles, and this alone will add more than 150,000 tons of aluminum profiles.

In addition, because of the lightweight nature of aluminum alloys, it is also the most used raw material in the aerospace field. With the R&D and production of China’s manned spaceflight and large aircraft and regional aircraft, the amount of aluminum used in the aerospace industry will also continue to grow.

In the consumer durables industry. The demand for aluminum products in the field of consumer durables is mainly concentrated in the home appliance industry. In recent years, the gradual increase in the amount of aluminum used in home appliances has become a trend. From 2006 to 2009, the domestic demand for aluminum in the home appliance industry grew at an average annual rate of 35%.

In terms of product trends, aluminum profiles are currently developing toward large sections, thin-wall thicknesses, high dimensional accuracy, complex sections, and exquisite appearance. In order to produce these products, many large extruders have also been put into use. For example, aluminum profiles for high-speed trains, CRH2, CRH3, and CRH5 EMUs are aluminum alloy profiles. The mechanical properties and cross section of the large-section hollow aluminum alloy extruded car body have strict requirements and can be extruded into various complex large-section materials. Domestic manufacturers generally use more than 600 tons of extrusion machines to produce.

With the sustained, rapid and sound development of China's national economy, the demand for aluminum profiles will increase and the level of equipment and technology will become more and more advanced. It is believed that China's aluminum profile products will have more room for development. With the implementation of the "Non-ferrous Metal Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan", high value-added products and technological innovation will become increasingly important. With the continuous integration of the industrial chain, China's aluminum extrusion industry will develop more rapidly and with high quality.