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For the aluminum demand in 2011, from the downstream analysis, the bullish factors still have: the construction of affordable housing for real estate and the endogenous growth of the automotive industry can continue to support China's aluminum demand. However, the severe pressure on the commodity housing market has also become a concern for the weakening of aluminum demand;
If the electricity price is raised by 3 yuan / kWh, according to the standard of 14,000 kWh / ton, then the smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum will rise by 420 yuan / ton. In the second half of 2009, the NDRC's upward adjustment of electricity prices triggered an increase in aluminum prices. We believe that the increase in costs is still expected to support the rise in aluminum prices;
The growth of LME aluminum stocks may be related to the upcoming ETF fund. According to Reuters, a high-level Russian aluminum company said in a conference call that the aluminum ETF will soon be launched and will be launched in a few weeks instead of several months. The launch of ETF funds may be related to the re-launch of aluminum inventories. And this indicates that aluminum prices may gain another wave of boosts;
In January, China’s narrow money distribution amounted to 26.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, a significant drop from 21.18% in December last year; broad money was 73.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 17.58%, compared with 12 last year. The 19.72% year-on-year growth rate of the month also showed a significant decrease. From the perspective of the change in the growth rate of money supply, it can be seen more clearly the effect of the austerity policy;
New loans and money growth were both higher than the target. The CPI fell slightly from November, while GDP increased by 10.3%, indicating that the economy is not overheated. The central bank’s suspension of bills is shown in the policy regulation, the central bank will not blindly tighten, although in terms of policy, tightening is a general trend, but in part, there is still the possibility of relaxation;
However, the current room for aluminum prices to fall is also very limited. On the one hand, the profit is not high, on the other hand, the cost will continue to rise, and the already marginal profit margin will be squeezed. Under such conditions, the aluminum price may continue to fluctuate within an interval if the external market is not too strong. In the case of the effect of the pull-down, the aluminum price may regain its upward trend in March, albeit with a limited range.
Aluminum prices fluctuated slightly in February
The aluminum price in February was ups and downs, but the overall fluctuation was not large. Shanghai Aluminum eventually fluctuated around 17,000 yuan / ton, while LME aluminum prices stabilized at 2,500 US dollars / ton. The external environment is raging, and in addition to the surge in crude oil, many commodities have fallen sharply, while aluminum prices remain intact.
Downstream demand has not fully recovered
The real estate industry is under multiple pressures
For real estate, the purchase restriction policy and the credit contraction policy are very unfavorable. The fact that the real estate industry itself has been suppressed has been a matter of fact.
On January 26, 2011, the State Council executive meeting launched eight real estate market regulation measures. Restricted purchase has become the main theme of real estate regulation. Subsequently, Shanghai, Qingdao, Jinan, Chengdu, Beijing and other cities introduced rules to make more detailed regulations on the purchase restriction policy. The content of the policy is roughly "three forbidden and two forbidden." The city's household registration has the first set of housing, but the second set of housing can be purchased, but the third set of housing is not allowed. This is “forbidden threeâ€. If the foreign residents have no housing, they can purchase a set of tax payment certificate and social insurance payment certificate. Housing, it is forbidden to purchase a second set of housing, this is "forbidden two"; foreign residents who cannot provide tax payment certificates or social insurance payment certificates will suspend the purchase of houses.
Since April 15, 2010, the restriction on purchase has gradually become the core content of real estate regulation and control policy. From the point of view of the policy, the restriction on purchases is still to limit the excessive rise in housing prices. However, this policy will undoubtedly affect the transaction volume of the real estate market: if the city's 40 large and medium-sized cities adopt the city's purchase restriction scheme, the national transaction volume will drop by 18%; if the main city purchase restriction scheme is adopted, the transaction volume will drop by 9%. . Considering that different cities have different regulations on the scope of purchase restrictions, the volume of transactions will fall between 9% and 18%.
Car sales hit a record high
In spite of factors such as the Beijing restriction policy and the withdrawal of various preferential policies, car sales in January still hit a record high. According to the data of the Automobile Industry Association, China's automobile sales in January was 1,894,400 units, an increase of 13.81% year-on-year.
If the electricity price is raised by 3 yuan / kWh, according to the standard of 14,000 kWh / ton, then the smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum will rise by 420 yuan / ton. In the second half of 2009, the NDRC's upward adjustment of electricity prices triggered an increase in aluminum prices. We believe that the increase in costs is still expected to support the rise in aluminum prices;
The growth of LME aluminum stocks may be related to the upcoming ETF fund. According to Reuters, a high-level Russian aluminum company said in a conference call that the aluminum ETF will soon be launched and will be launched in a few weeks instead of several months. The launch of ETF funds may be related to the re-launch of aluminum inventories. And this indicates that aluminum prices may gain another wave of boosts;
In January, China’s narrow money distribution amounted to 26.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, a significant drop from 21.18% in December last year; broad money was 73.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 17.58%, compared with 12 last year. The 19.72% year-on-year growth rate of the month also showed a significant decrease. From the perspective of the change in the growth rate of money supply, it can be seen more clearly the effect of the austerity policy;
New loans and money growth were both higher than the target. The CPI fell slightly from November, while GDP increased by 10.3%, indicating that the economy is not overheated. The central bank’s suspension of bills is shown in the policy regulation, the central bank will not blindly tighten, although in terms of policy, tightening is a general trend, but in part, there is still the possibility of relaxation;
However, the current room for aluminum prices to fall is also very limited. On the one hand, the profit is not high, on the other hand, the cost will continue to rise, and the already marginal profit margin will be squeezed. Under such conditions, the aluminum price may continue to fluctuate within an interval if the external market is not too strong. In the case of the effect of the pull-down, the aluminum price may regain its upward trend in March, albeit with a limited range.
Aluminum prices fluctuated slightly in February
The aluminum price in February was ups and downs, but the overall fluctuation was not large. Shanghai Aluminum eventually fluctuated around 17,000 yuan / ton, while LME aluminum prices stabilized at 2,500 US dollars / ton. The external environment is raging, and in addition to the surge in crude oil, many commodities have fallen sharply, while aluminum prices remain intact.
Downstream demand has not fully recovered
The real estate industry is under multiple pressures
For real estate, the purchase restriction policy and the credit contraction policy are very unfavorable. The fact that the real estate industry itself has been suppressed has been a matter of fact.
On January 26, 2011, the State Council executive meeting launched eight real estate market regulation measures. Restricted purchase has become the main theme of real estate regulation. Subsequently, Shanghai, Qingdao, Jinan, Chengdu, Beijing and other cities introduced rules to make more detailed regulations on the purchase restriction policy. The content of the policy is roughly "three forbidden and two forbidden." The city's household registration has the first set of housing, but the second set of housing can be purchased, but the third set of housing is not allowed. This is “forbidden threeâ€. If the foreign residents have no housing, they can purchase a set of tax payment certificate and social insurance payment certificate. Housing, it is forbidden to purchase a second set of housing, this is "forbidden two"; foreign residents who cannot provide tax payment certificates or social insurance payment certificates will suspend the purchase of houses.
Since April 15, 2010, the restriction on purchase has gradually become the core content of real estate regulation and control policy. From the point of view of the policy, the restriction on purchases is still to limit the excessive rise in housing prices. However, this policy will undoubtedly affect the transaction volume of the real estate market: if the city's 40 large and medium-sized cities adopt the city's purchase restriction scheme, the national transaction volume will drop by 18%; if the main city purchase restriction scheme is adopted, the transaction volume will drop by 9%. . Considering that different cities have different regulations on the scope of purchase restrictions, the volume of transactions will fall between 9% and 18%.
Car sales hit a record high
In spite of factors such as the Beijing restriction policy and the withdrawal of various preferential policies, car sales in January still hit a record high. According to the data of the Automobile Industry Association, China's automobile sales in January was 1,894,400 units, an increase of 13.81% year-on-year.
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