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"Smog effect" or affect next year's growth target
The central economic work conference is just around the corner, and environmental protection related issues are expected to become the focus
For the judgment of the economic situation next year, the Central Economic Work Conference to be held recently is undoubtedly the most authoritative vane. As the first economic work conference after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the new government's economic reform ideas and reform determination will be presented in a more detailed form. Multi-party news shows that the meeting will be held this week.
The "First Financial Daily" interviewed many people learned that next year's work will focus on two areas of development and reform. Among them, economic growth will pay more attention to domestic demand, and reform should cultivate the concept of focusing on growth and quality. In this way, the establishment of a green balance sheet and other content will accelerate the pace.
A few days ago, the Central Organization Department issued a notice stipulating that in the future, various assessments of local party and government leading bodies and leading cadres should not only use regional GDP and growth rate as the main indicators of performance evaluation, and cannot engage in regional GDP and growth. Rate ranking, the elimination of regional GDP assessment for key poverty alleviation and development counties in countries with limited development areas and ecological fragility.
At the same time, in the context of the recent gloom in all parts of the country, many scholars have indicated to the newspaper that adhering to the green and low-carbon clean development, focusing on energy conservation and supporting the development of eco-friendly agriculture will become the central economic work. One of the key points of the meeting. Some scholars also said that if the GDP target is set at the "bottoming" position, smog must be one of the important considerations.
Focus on GDP growth target
After the leadership change, the economic downturn and the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, the Central Economic Work Conference will be closely watched for its role as a “startingâ€.
An in-house scholar told this newspaper that this is not only the first time that the party and government centered on General Secretary Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have jointly laid out the overall situation of China's economy, but also the key start for the implementation of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee. At the same time, next year's work will play an important guiding role in whether China's economy can change from "quantity" to "quality".
When the Third Plenary announced the "Decision", due to the focus on the frame design, the work content next year is not clear. After the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on December 3, the outline of China's macroeconomic work next year will become clearer. The Political Bureau put forward the basic tone of the work of striving for stability and progress, insisting on coordinating steady growth, restructuring the structure, promoting reform, and launching a series of innovative policy measures.
As one of the biggest highlights of the Central Economic Work Conference, how to define the GDP growth rate of one of the main indicators has become the content of the community's predictions. The reporter found out that the current mainstream institutions have concentrated the forecast values ​​between 7.0% and 7.5%, and the trend is that the later the release, the higher the predicted value.
The above scholars said that the Chinese economy has entered a new stage of development, and this decision must be solved with new ideas and methods. In addition, this economic conference is not only the first economic work conference after the new government has changed. Due to the large-scale personnel changes in the ministries, provinces, cities and the military in the past year, the future national governance ideas and methods will be relatively large. Variety.
"The hero should not be a consensus on GDP, but at the same time it is clear that 'development' is the foundation of stability." The scholar said that compared with the semi-annual meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on July 30 this year, "the direction of macroeconomic regulation should be grasped." The strength, rhythm, and economic operation are in a reasonable range. It can be found that the central idea is coherent, that is, both development and reform must be grasped.
The comprehensive news of the reporters found that in the key reform areas next year, the most likely breakthrough is the price reform of public goods, resource tax, consumption tax and the expansion of “reform of the campâ€. In addition, major reforms such as administrative system reform, fiscal and tax reform, financial reform, and state-owned enterprise reform will be steadily advanced. According to the previous planning of the State Council, the preparation of national and local balance sheets is expected to continue, and the reform plan for state-owned enterprises is also expected to be launched.
Will the smog "borrow" the target?
In the controversy over how to reasonably define the growth interval, the problem of obtaining the “black GDP†in the past through the overdraft environment has become increasingly apparent. In the past few days, a super smog has shrouded many provinces and cities across the country. PM2.5 (fine particles) “explosion table†has caused many local students to have vacations, car restrictions, and large-scale aircraft delays... At the beginning of this month, North China, East China and Northeast China The southern region, including the severe haze that erupted simultaneously on the Korean peninsula, can no longer be called a case.
"If our GDP is set at the 'bottom' position, smog must be one of the important considerations," said the scholars in the aforementioned system. Guan Qingyou, deputy director of the Minsheng Securities Research Institute, also believes that the smog incident may become an important factor in determining the target of economic growth next year.
At the same time, the academic community has started a tug-of-war between GDP and environmental protection. Some scholars believe that the Chinese economy must maintain a certain growth rate, while other scholars believe that the GDP growth rate should be lowered to pay for the past environmental “debtâ€.
Lu Aiping, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and dean of the School of Chinese Medicine of the Hong Kong Baptist University, said earlier that even if the country pays the price of GDP, it must eliminate smog, use less coal, drive less, and develop less buildings. Rather than lowering GDP, we must also manage the haze because other methods are small methods, not the main ones.
In fact, "green GDP" has gradually become a consensus from top to bottom. Xi Jinping repeatedly pointed out that "the hero is no longer simply based on the GDP growth rate", "not to entangle the growth of GDP, national rankings, etc." From the central to the local, improving the methods of assessment and taking indicators and performances such as ecological benefits as important assessment contents has also become a new practice for local governments to explore.
In the second half of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission took the lead in the ministries and commissions to launch a tough battle to resolve overcapacity. This process not only needs to upgrade the industry, but also changes the extensive development methods in the past, thus reducing the environmental and resource burden.
As a microcosm of the overcapacity of steel in the country, Hebei Province has recently started a large-scale compression capacity operation. For Hebei, while compressing the production capacity, it is more urgent to get rid of the heavy pollution of the hat. The media quoted local officials as saying: "If you can't complete the GDP indicator, you can get the most out of it; if you don't get good control of air pollution, you have to pick a black hat."
The reporter learned from many channels that next year's economic work will not only promote environmental protection in terms of structural adjustment, but also use the “visible hand†of fiscal and taxation to control the smog. Su Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, also publicly stated on the 8th that in improving the tax system, China will promote resource tax reform and introduce environmental taxes in due course. Among them, the atmosphere and water will become the focus.
Jia Kang, director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, recently said that the price relationship and price of resources, such as basic energy, are seriously distorted. It is already a serious problem that China's current economic development cannot ignore, and market-oriented reform is imperative.
Deepen the road to economic transformation
After the traditional dividends are exhausted, environmental problems are only one of the potential problems of the Chinese economy. How to embark on the path of transformation through reforms determines whether China can continue to write a miracle on the world stage.
The Politburo meeting earlier this month proposed to promote reasonable investment growth and structural optimization. Fixed investment has always been the main investment method for the government to promote growth. This attitude shows that although fixed asset investment is still the main investment direction for some time in the future, the decision-makers hope to avoid excessive growth and will adopt different policies for different investment areas.
Judging from the information disclosed so far, in 2014, the state will guide private investment, increase infrastructure construction in most areas, and promote new urbanization. Specifically, next year's infrastructure investment will be mainly used for transportation, especially railway transportation and water conservancy environmental public facilities management.
In terms of accelerating the adjustment and optimization of the economic structure, Xi Jinping once suggested that it is necessary to vigorously promote the adjustment of industrial structure and insist on resolving overcapacity as the focus of industrial restructuring. At present, the work of eliminating backward production capacity has started, and there will be more efforts next year. Previously, the State Council has set aside five industries as pilot breakthroughs: cement, flat glass, ships and electrolytic aluminum.
At the same time, Hu Chi, a researcher at the Research Institute of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, told reporters that from the statistical data, the overall energy conservation and emission reduction situation this year is not bad, but the smog still appears in most areas, which means energy saving and emission reduction. It can not be done only by industrial emission reduction.
For example, China's industrial energy-saving emission reduction, there is still a lot of space in the field of non-ferrous smelting, but in the power industry, after years of energy-saving emission reduction, large pressure, desulfurization and denitrification, China The unit coal consumption level of thermal power units has been at a low level in the world, and it is increasingly difficult to continue tapping potential.
Hu Chi suggested that in the future, we should form an all-round, full-coverage energy-saving and emission-reduction means, such as rectifying vehicle exhaust emissions, improving the technological and environmental protection level of industrial production, and improving energy-saving standards in consumption and living areas. With the current high level of technology, China is likely to travel the Western “first pollution and then governance†road in a shorter period of time, which may be one of China’s “post-development advantagesâ€.
The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the core issue of economic system reform is to handle the relationship between the government and the market. In the capacity adjustment, how to find the boundary between the policy and the market is an effective way to play the role of market regulation and avoid repeating the "more and more" cycle.
Hu Chi also suggested that under the spiritual guidance of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the effectiveness of the portfolio policy should be improved in the future. On the one hand, the pace of resource product price reform should be accelerated, and on the other hand, the implementation of supervision should be strengthened. Enhance the coordination effect between policies. In the current situation of overcapacity, enterprises should especially respond to changes in the market by changing development concepts and changing the competition model, and the central government should also increase the accountability for local capacity structure adjustment.
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