The new normal of China's economy faces four major pains and six new opportunities

Whether China's economy is good or not is actually a big increase in production efficiency. The entry of the Chinese economy into the new normal will bring about profound changes, bringing new challenges and new opportunities. In such a process, the most important thing is to seize the opportunity.

The vice chairman of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, Yu Shengzhan, said that the Chinese economy under the "new normal" faces four aspects of pain: First, steel, cement, shipbuilding electrolytic aluminum and other manufacturing industries are facing severe overcapacity, and manufacturing industries must "de-capacity". ";

Second, the local government has a higher debt ratio, and the financial sector needs to be “deleveraged”; once again, real estate adjustments are painful; finally, the environmental requirements, the environment must be “decontaminated”.

The four major pains in the economic transformation have determined that China is facing greater economic downward pressure. At the same time, more new opportunities will be ushered in. The Chinese economy will face six new opportunities under the new normal.

The first is the urbanization of population.

The process of population urbanization will create huge investment demand and consumer demand, and accelerate consumption upgrading. In 2014, China's urbanization rate reached 54.77%. An important direction for the future development of urbanization is the optimization of the spatial pattern of economic development and the construction of urban agglomerations. In recent years, the planning and construction of China's urban agglomerations has heated up sharply.

According to statistics, the total number of existing urban agglomerations in China has exceeded 30. It is expected that within the next 5 to 10 years, China's urban agglomeration will cover 606 of the 815 cities in the country, with population and economic scale accounting for 82% of the total urban population and 92 respectively. %. Today, China's three major strategies include the “One Belt and One Road” development strategy, the Yangtze River Economic Belt Development Strategy, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy, which are closely linked to the development of the urban agglomeration.

In the future, the urban agglomeration will become the main form and main platform of urbanization, and it will be the core growth pole with the most vitality and potential in China's economic development, and it will become the mainstay of China's economic and social development in the future. From this perspective, the future competition is not only the competition of the industry, but also the competition of the urban agglomeration.

The second is economic service

Consumption upgrades will create a huge space for development of public, consumer and productive services. According to the World Bank's forecast, by 2030, the proportion of China's service industry will rise sharply, and the social structure and industrial structure will undergo tremendous changes.

The new normal of economic service will bring rich development opportunities for enterprises. Efforts should be made to explore new economic growth points and focus on new developments and new developments in the fields of pension, medical care, health, tourism, culture, logistics, and Internet-related industries.

At the same time, it is necessary to give full play to the joint efforts of the government and the market "two hands", increase the scope and proportion of private investment participation, and jointly improve the efficiency and quality of economic development.

The third is to develop low carbonization.

Intensified bottlenecks in resource and environment, emerging industries and increased awareness of environmental protection among consumers will create green and low-carbon economic opportunities. Last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that in terms of resource and environmental constraints, in the past, the energy resources and ecological environment were relatively large. Now the environmental carrying capacity has reached or approached the upper limit. It must conform to the people's expectations for a good ecological environment and promote the formation of green and low carbon. A new way of developing cycles.

In 2013, the State Council issued 10 measures for the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control; the Action Plan for Water Pollution Prevention and Control and the Action Plan for Soil Pollution Prevention and Control were also launched soon, and will concentrate on the prevention and control of atmospheric, water and soil pollution. The big battle", the development of green economy will drive the investment of "governing the atmosphere", "governing water" and "ruling the soil" with several trillion yuan, bringing more business opportunities for enterprises.

The fourth is the high-end industry

The level of industrial structure should gradually move from the low-end and mid-end to the middle and high-end, and hedging the downward pressure on the Chinese economy. In the future, China should accelerate the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries while vigorously developing strategic emerging industries.

The fundamental way out for industrial restructuring is innovation. It is necessary to make Chinese enterprises move from the low end of the value chain and the industrial chain to the middle and high end through innovation. This involves technological innovation, product innovation, organizational innovation, business model innovation, and market innovation.

By creating an environment in which “the industry can become rich and the innovation is rich”, we will foster an innovative and entrepreneurial culture of “tolerance, encouragement, and compatibility”, promote cooperation and innovation, and develop platform economy, encourage enterprises to innovate independently, and make enterprises truly become the mainstay of innovation.

The fifth is social informationization.

Social informatization is a key to the current downward pressure on the economy, breaking through the bottleneck of development, transforming the mode of economic development, promoting energy conservation, reducing emissions, improving industrial competitiveness and product competitiveness. It is a new engine under the new normal.

Informatization can be studied from two perspectives: first, the informationization of industry, using information technology to transform the production and business model of traditional industries; second, information industrialization. In the future, the Internet will change many areas such as cities, enterprises, and finance.

The new industrial revolution is characterized by "Internet + X." For example, "Internet + finance" is equal to Internet finance; "Internet + manufacturing", which the Germans call "Industry 4.0", which will be an important part of the "fourth industrial revolution"; "Internet + city informationization", Equal to a smart city. At present, smart cities are experiencing explosive growth, which will bring huge opportunities for development.

The sixth is the operation of internationalization

According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, in the past year, if the third-party financing was reinvested, China’s foreign investment was about 140 billion U.S. dollars, about 20 billion U.S. dollars higher than China’s use of foreign capital. China has become a net exporter of capital. Landmark.

At present, China's internationalization strategy transformation needs to move from product internationalization to enterprise internationalization, from commodity exporting countries to capital exporting countries, from "Made in China" to "China", from export-oriented to investment-based, from most products. Brand production turned to brand innovation, from a low-level international division of labor strategy to a high-level international operation strategy, from the world factory “workers” to global resource “integrators”.

According to relevant information, over the past 30 years, factors such as high savings rate, high investment rate, global FDI, and low factor cost have supported the sustained high growth of the Chinese economy.

From 2000 to 2013, the average growth rate of global economic GDP was 3.68%. In the same period, China's economy grew at an average annual rate of 10.6%, almost three times the global average. In 2014, China's total GDP may reach about 10 trillion US dollars.

However, the quantitative expansion of the economic model has been difficult to support such a large economic volume to achieve rapid growth, especially with the reduction of demographic dividends, rising cost of production factors, resource allocation efficiency and factor supply efficiency, China is also facing The bottleneck of the income trap.

China needs to overcome speed anxiety, actively adjust its mentality, and find new sources of growth. The development of entrepreneurial and innovative enterprises and industrial upgrading have the overall characteristics of China's economic development will enter a new stage under the new normal.

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