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In the field of iron ore, there has been a tense atmosphere of “listening to the wind is rainâ€. On September 6, Beijing time, at the 2010 China Import Forum, Feng Guiquan, vice president of Minmetals Group, revealed that the three major miners hope to sign a monthly iron ore pricing agreement with China.
On September 7, local time, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) began to rise. On September 8, the increase was 1.95%, which was 2,975 points, which was a continuous rise. Compared with the madness of 10,000 in 2008, this seems to be nothing, but Du Wei, an analyst of the joint metal network iron ore, told this reporter that this is because China’s iron ore import demand has increased, boosting large The demand for Begonia shipping is strong, and the BDI index is therefore strong.
This change has already been reflected in Rizhao Port, China's largest import port for iron ore. Jiang Ming, a trader engaged in the import of iron ore, told this reporter on September 9 that since August 29, the spot price of iron ore has been rising, and the increase has exceeded 5%. This is the psychological warning line of his medium-sized trader.
Spot spoiler
For the reasons for the rise, Du Wei believes that the first is the iron ore pricing mechanism still in the game. In this increasingly complex and large-scale, long-term commercial negotiation, the purpose of negotiating between the supply and demand sides is who has the absolute right to speak. The quarterly pricing mechanism unilaterally proposed by the three major iron ore suppliers was resolved by various market forces including Indian iron ore spot and inventory. The next step is quarterly pricing, monthly pricing, or shifting to spot. From the current ups and downs, it is really difficult to judge.
Jiang Ming told this reporter that since June this year, because quarterly pricing has become possible, the scale of iron ore spot trade has begun to increase, and the scope of its company's customers has expanded from Shandong and Hebei provinces to Shanxi and Northeast. Ground. He also predicted that "in this way, the iron ore pricing mechanism will be closer to the spot price, and price fluctuations will be greatly increased."
He explained, "It seems that the spot price of iron ore may soon fall below the index price, and the funds required for traders to enter the market need to be greatly increased. This will not only squeeze some traders, but also make them bigger. Traders join the spot market to speculate, and price volatility will certainly be more pronounced."
Unstable demand
In the newly-reformed China Steel Association, a department head told the reporter on September 8 that they have noticed that since the second half of 2009, the iron ore trade market has changed dramatically, especially the international With the involvement of financial capital, it is now possible to join a number of newly emerging RMB funds. “Everyone knows that buying a lot of ore and then slamming it for a while can make money.â€
He said that from the demand side of Chinese steel companies, of course, they hope to adhere to the long-term cooperation mechanism. "The annual pricing is the best, and the quarterly pricing is also considered." Because "logistics and transportation costs are not currently reducing space."
However, the demand of domestic steel companies is not a piece of iron. This year is the last year of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". The original energy conservation and emission reduction targets have not yet been achieved, and relevant macro-control policies have tightened, and steel companies bear the brunt. In the iron ore link, “Because the industry is under pressure, raw material costs must first be suppressed, and iron ore demand is weakened immediately. Brazil’s Vale and Rio Tinto have recently lowered their iron ore prices in the fourth quarter, exceeding the expectations. 10%." The person in charge of the aforementioned China Steel Association told this reporter.
In this regard, Du Wei believes that the soaring price of iron ore has caused the steel producers to start to feel at a loss. "I don't know when to eat and when to release the stock." The change in price at the demand side is obviously stronger than the supply. square.
On September 7, local time, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) began to rise. On September 8, the increase was 1.95%, which was 2,975 points, which was a continuous rise. Compared with the madness of 10,000 in 2008, this seems to be nothing, but Du Wei, an analyst of the joint metal network iron ore, told this reporter that this is because China’s iron ore import demand has increased, boosting large The demand for Begonia shipping is strong, and the BDI index is therefore strong.
This change has already been reflected in Rizhao Port, China's largest import port for iron ore. Jiang Ming, a trader engaged in the import of iron ore, told this reporter on September 9 that since August 29, the spot price of iron ore has been rising, and the increase has exceeded 5%. This is the psychological warning line of his medium-sized trader.
Spot spoiler
For the reasons for the rise, Du Wei believes that the first is the iron ore pricing mechanism still in the game. In this increasingly complex and large-scale, long-term commercial negotiation, the purpose of negotiating between the supply and demand sides is who has the absolute right to speak. The quarterly pricing mechanism unilaterally proposed by the three major iron ore suppliers was resolved by various market forces including Indian iron ore spot and inventory. The next step is quarterly pricing, monthly pricing, or shifting to spot. From the current ups and downs, it is really difficult to judge.
Jiang Ming told this reporter that since June this year, because quarterly pricing has become possible, the scale of iron ore spot trade has begun to increase, and the scope of its company's customers has expanded from Shandong and Hebei provinces to Shanxi and Northeast. Ground. He also predicted that "in this way, the iron ore pricing mechanism will be closer to the spot price, and price fluctuations will be greatly increased."
He explained, "It seems that the spot price of iron ore may soon fall below the index price, and the funds required for traders to enter the market need to be greatly increased. This will not only squeeze some traders, but also make them bigger. Traders join the spot market to speculate, and price volatility will certainly be more pronounced."
Unstable demand
In the newly-reformed China Steel Association, a department head told the reporter on September 8 that they have noticed that since the second half of 2009, the iron ore trade market has changed dramatically, especially the international With the involvement of financial capital, it is now possible to join a number of newly emerging RMB funds. “Everyone knows that buying a lot of ore and then slamming it for a while can make money.â€
He said that from the demand side of Chinese steel companies, of course, they hope to adhere to the long-term cooperation mechanism. "The annual pricing is the best, and the quarterly pricing is also considered." Because "logistics and transportation costs are not currently reducing space."
However, the demand of domestic steel companies is not a piece of iron. This year is the last year of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan". The original energy conservation and emission reduction targets have not yet been achieved, and relevant macro-control policies have tightened, and steel companies bear the brunt. In the iron ore link, “Because the industry is under pressure, raw material costs must first be suppressed, and iron ore demand is weakened immediately. Brazil’s Vale and Rio Tinto have recently lowered their iron ore prices in the fourth quarter, exceeding the expectations. 10%." The person in charge of the aforementioned China Steel Association told this reporter.
In this regard, Du Wei believes that the soaring price of iron ore has caused the steel producers to start to feel at a loss. "I don't know when to eat and when to release the stock." The change in price at the demand side is obviously stronger than the supply. square.
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