Risk assets quickly pulled out of lows

Basics:

Data released by the Commerce Department on June 8th, Beijing time (Fri.) showed that the US trade deficit in April was 4.9% lower than that in March, reaching 50.06 billion U.S. dollars. The expected deficit was 49.50 billion U.S. dollars. The March trade deficit It was revised up to 52.62 billion U.S. dollars and the initial value was 51.83 billion U.S. dollars.

Beijing, June 8 (Friday) The US Department of Commerce (DOC) released a report that the US’s wholesale inventory rate rose by 0.6% to US$483.5 billion in April, which is expected to increase by 0.4%. April wholesale sales rose 1.1% to a monthly rate of US$415.02 billion, which is expected to increase by 0.3%.

Official speech:

Lagarde, President of the International Monetary Union (IMF):

The European Central Bank is urged to further relax its policy. As global risks rise, global risks rise again. Officials cannot allow market concerns to dominate policies. There are signs that policy makers have lost profits in the crisis. Global social tension is a risk factor. Europe is currently Further action must be taken to help the EU. Officials must lead to financial stability and economic growth. The financial system remains insecure and the state of the European banking industry must be repaired.

Federal Reserve (FED)** Bernanke:

The EU has constituted a drag on US exports, hit the business and consumer confidence, the euro crisis poses a serious risk to the US economy and financial system, if the debt crisis continues, the Fed will be ready to act to protect the US economy, "fiscal cliff" will Concerning the U.S. economy, it poses serious risks. Uncertainty surrounding fiscal issues may affect corporate and household confidence. Banks and financial conditions in the United States have been substantially improved since the financial crisis. Preventing the sudden contraction of fiscal policy will support full employment, according to the survey, long-term Inflation expectations are well controlled and U.S. businesses and households are very cautious about the economic outlook. The depressed housing market continues to weigh on economic growth. The improvement of the labor market requires that economic activities increase at a faster pace and the Fed will continue to maintain a highly adaptable monetary policy. The Fed did not make a decision on QE. All the options were under discussion. The last time QE did ease the financial market, and continued to believe that QE could provide some support to the economy. The effect of the Fed's further actions may weaken. Bernanke: Housing The market seems to be holding steady. Controversy surrounding the increase in the debt limit last summer hit consumer confidence. The European debt crisis is greater for the United States than China's economic growth is slowing down. The European problem is more of a political issue than an economic issue. If necessary, steps will be taken to support liquidity.

International Rating Agency

International Rating Agency Moody:

Changes in Spain and Greece, the situation could prompt downgrades euro zone, the risk of a Greek exit particularly affects Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain rating if Greece out of the euro, the euro will re-examine all District rating, if the risk of Greece's exit from the euro area further rises, it may cause new ratings pressure on the entire euro area, Greece's exit from the euro area may ** to the existence of the euro, the Spanish and Italian banking system is increasingly dependent on the ECB’s funds The bigger the Spanish banking system crisis is unlikely to spread to other eurozone countries except Italy.

International Rating Agency Moody:

Downgrading 5 companies and confirming 4 mortgage bond ratings issued by five German banks

International Rating Agency Standard & Poor's:

Confirming the US AA+ rating, the outlook remains negative. The possibility that the U.S. economy will fall into recession once again in 2012 is about 20%. If U.S. parties cannot reach consensus on establishing a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan, U.S. rating will face pressure. It is estimated that the ratio of US government deficit to GDP will fall from 10% in 2011 to 5% in 2016. It is estimated that by 2016, the government’s total debt-to-GDP rate will increase from 77% in 2011 to 87%. The ratio of government deficit to GDP will decrease from 10% in 2011 to 5%. The political and financial risks in 2014 may lead to another reduction in the US rating.

gold:

The price of gold finished lower and fell last week and moved higher late in the day. It is also true that there have been disturbances to the market caused by the European problems, and several major central bank interest rate meetings have not been moved. As long as the Reserve Bank of Australia cuts interest rates. As well as the interest rate cuts from the People’s Bank of China, the market’s interest rate has been brought about for a while. But such an influence is insignificant in the face of Fed Bernanke's testimony. As the Fed’s Bernanke spoke of the new QE, another market investor was disappointed. The price of gold was severely under pressure, and quickly fell below the 1600 mark. The next day, the price of gold in Asia continued the downward trend. After hitting the 1555 line, it received support from bargain-hunting and was lifted from the low position. After receiving good news before the meeting of the European weekend finance ministers to discuss the Spanish issue, market sentiment was eased, risk assets quickly pulled off the lows, and all ended higher in late session.

Gold Technical Analysis:

The monthly analysis of technical indicators KDJ high Sicha divergent bearish, MACD high dying fork bearish, kinetic indicators bearish, average system formation Sicha bearish, K line bearish. The moon line has already encountered four consecutive shades. The current trend is weak and the top is blocked below the May average. Later generations are concerned about the support below 1450.

Weekly technical indicators KDJ appeared to have weaker bullish divergence, MACD indicator green bar weakened bearishly, average moving averages bearishly bearish, K line pattern bearish, Zhou K line took out a small Yin line with up and down leads, momentum indicator RSI took Weak bearish. On the whole, the weak position of gold price fluctuates, and the downward trend tends to be obvious. After recovering above the 100-week moving average for three consecutive weeks, gold has regained its 5-week moving average and even launched an impact on the 50-week line. . After that, it closed below the 10-week moving average. From the weekly perspective, the price of gold still faces heavy resistance. The top can recover 60 weeks before it can escape from the danger zone.

The daily analysis of the KDJ technical indicators was very bearish, the MACD technical indicators were bullish, the momentum indicators were stronger, and the short-term moving averages of the moving averages showed signs of turning heads. The direction was unknown. The K line pattern is bullish. Gold prices fell sharply in early Asian and European markets on Friday and hit near 1555. The bottom rebounded and eventually closed above the 10-day moving average. The hammer line that closed the lower shadow line was bullish.

The 4-hour KDJ technical indicator bullish divergence is bullish, MACD technical indicators are bearish, momentum indicator is bullish and bullish, and the average line is showing bullish momentum. The K line pattern is bullish;

Trader strategy:

Today chooses bargain rallies as the main reference price near 1594 to do more stop-loss 5-10 USD target 1600 1614 1626

Resistance 1640

Support 1560

Financial events

Zhu Min, Vice President of the IMF, presented a keynote speech at the San Francisco Fed Asian Banking and Finance Conference entitled "Asia in a Changing World"

Americas International Economic Forum (up to 14th)

14:00 German Issue of 4 Billion Euro 6-Month Treasury Bill

23:30 U.S. Issuance of Thirteen and Twenty-Six Treasury Bills

13:00 Japan Home Consumer Confidence Index May Value: 40.0

14:00 German Issue of 4 Billion Euro 6-Month Treasury Bills High

14:45 The annual value of industrial output in France in April: -1.4%

14:45 The monthly value of industrial output in France in April: -0.9% higher

16:00 Italy's first quarter final value of GDP Last season's rate: -0.8% Market forecast: -0.8% higher

16:00 Italy's first quarter final value of GDP before the annual rate: -1.3% Market Forecast: -1.3% higher

23:30 U.S. Issued Thirteen and Twenty-Six Treasury Bills High