The global economy is slowly recovering, metal demand is growing

So far this month, copper has risen more than 7%, rebounding from the three-year low hit in June, as signs of China's economic resilience, the European economy out of recession and the US economic recovery is slowly accelerating. Data show that China's refined copper production in July fell by nearly 6% from June to a five-month low. This may mean that the world's largest copper consumer and producer will need to increase imports, which supports copper prices.

[Latest market]

● LME Electronics - Copper 7374 rose 20.2, aluminum 1944 rose 35.5, zinc 2002.5 rose 37.5, lead 2249 rose 38, nickel 14879 rose 89, tin 21925 rose 225, aluminum alloy 1800 fell 15.

● International spot gold 1376.5 fell 0.21, silver 23.29 rose 0.04, platinum 1526.25 rose 0.5, palladium 761.8 fell 1.2.

● LME copper stock 584075 minus 125 aluminum stock 5438675 minus 5800 zinc stock 1037275 minus 2600 lead stock 190925 minus 1050 nickel stock 206118 increase 240 tin stock 14055 flat.

● Shanghai Futures Trading Weekly Inventory: copper stocks 161891 increased 10743 aluminum stocks 334033 minus 15146 zinc stocks 258147 minus 1659 lead stocks 103583 minus 5410.

[LME Interpretation and Today's Forecast]

● Long copper early evaluation: Lun copper continued to hit the $7,400 mark without fruit, and the market closed up slightly; from a technical point of view, the resistance level is very obvious, we still believe that the probability of breakthrough is low, and short-term thinking is kept short.

● Lun aluminum early comment: Last Friday, Lun aluminum continued to rebound sharply, and rose nearly 2% at the close; however, it is now close to the long-term resistance of the 1950 US dollar line, and there is a great possibility that it will be blocked, and it will fall back under pressure.

● Lun lead early evaluation: Lun lead inventory decreased to 190,000 tons, Lun lead approached the previous high of 2250 US dollars; while domestic lead stocks fell more than 2,000 tons last week, domestic lead prices remain strong, and will continue to increase in the short term.

● Long-term evaluation of zinc: The global economic outlook is promising, and the market optimism has led to a rise in the amount of zinc in the next week, standing at $2,000 in the late session. A breakthrough in technology is formed, and the short-term trend is on the rise.

● Lunxi early comment: Sino-US economic data has stimulated the rise of Lunxi. After the intraday low, it was supported by the 10-day line. In the end, it stood at 19,000 lines. The technical indicators of Lunxi remained good. .

● Nickel early comment: Last Friday, the nickel shocked higher, and the intraday pressure of 15,000 US dollars was again measured. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will remain consolidating, but if the above resistance is not broken, the risk of callback will increase, and the profit will be reduced.

[Industry Interpretation]

● Indonesia will resolutely implement the ban on raw ore export policy

In response to questions from many insiders about whether the Indonesian government will implement the 2014 ban on raw ore export policy as scheduled, the Director of the Ministry of Mines and Minerals and Minerals of Indonesia, Tamlin, recently stressed that the Indonesian government will resolutely ban the export of raw ore. policy.

Interpretation: Indonesia's adherence to the export ban on raw ore will have a huge impact on China's aluminum industry; it is expected that the price of imported bauxite will continue to rise in the future, which will increase the operating pressure of smelting enterprises, intensify market competition, and from the foundation. It has gradually damaged the development prospects of the domestic aluminum industry.

●Indonesia's tin exports fell sharply in July, down 76% year-on-year, down 88% from the previous month.

Sukrisno, president of Indonesia's top tin producer Tianma, said in an interview in Jakarta that Indonesia's tin exports in July were 1,300 tons, and it expects tin exports to remain low in August.

Interpretation: Bloomberg had previously forecasted Indonesia's export data in July. At that time, Indonesia's tin export volume in July was expected to fall by 28% from the previous month to 8,000 tons, mainly due to the official approval of the new regulations by Indonesia, starting from July 1. Tin ingots with a purity of less than 99.9% are used for export. From the officially released July data, it is worse than expected, and this regulation is expected to lead to a reduction in exports in the next few months; another reason for the sharp decline in Indonesia’s exports in July is the decline in tin prices. The smelter limited sales. Indonesia is currently the largest exporter of tin, and the decline in exports will support the price of tin to a certain extent.

[Financial Express]

Dow Jones index 15081.5 fell 30.7, Nasdaq 3602.78 fell 3.34, CRB index 521.14 fell 0.37, US dollar index 81.34 rose 0.02, EUR/USD 1.3324 fell 0.0002, USD/JPY 97.7 rose 0.14, US crude oil 107.24 fell 0.22.

[Auditor Reads Finance]

● China's housing price data is seriously undervalued, real GDP exaggerated 1 trillion US dollars

Interpretation: China's statistics have long caused people to question. A study by Peking University’s HSBC Business School found that between 2000 and 2011, China’s actual CPI data should be 1% higher than official data by correcting officially calculated housing prices, which makes the country’s real GDP ratio official data. Reduced by 8%-12%, the scale is about 1 trillion US dollars. The prosperity of China's economy has led people to migrate from rural areas to expanding cities, which has led to a rise in housing prices in developed regions. However, official Chinese statistics show that rural housing prices are still higher than cities.

● 10-year US Treasury yields two-year highs, the largest single-week decline in a year

Interpretation: US debt was sold again on Friday, and the 10-year yield hit a two-year high. The US stock market fell, the Dow recorded the biggest weekly decline in 14 months. Gold rose to a two-month high; silver rose 15% this week, the biggest weekly gain since September 2008. The initial value of the Consumer Confidence Index for Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan fell to 80.0 in August from a six-year high of 85.1 in July, and was significantly lower than the expected 85.2. In July, new housing starts increased by 5.9% to 896,000, slightly lower than expected.

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