![<?echo $_SERVER['SERVER_NAME'];?>](/template/twentyseventeen/skin/images/header.jpg)
People in the industry have ridiculed themselves. Over the years, the steel industry has been sliding from “high handsome and rich†to “short and poorâ€. In terms of the most intuitive profit per ton of steel, the peak period can reach about 1,000 yuan, you can buy an ordinary mobile phone. Later, it gradually fell to the level where only one kilogram of pork and one bottle of mineral water could be bought. In the first half of this year, the profit per ton of steel was only 0.43 yuan, and the two ton combined to make up the money is not enough to buy a popsicle.
Analysis of the difficulties faced by the steel industry, overcapacity has become a common topic. Over the years, although the steel industry's capacity control policy has not been introduced, the reality is that on the one hand, backward production capacity is eliminated, and on the other hand, new projects are continuously launched, and the production capacity is reduced more and more. China's steel production capacity in 2009 was about 700 million tons, and by 2013 this figure has increased to 976 million tons. This is also the leading cause of the continued low downturn in steel prices, which ultimately dragged down the profits of steel companies.
For the steel enterprises that are swaying and swaying, the "last straw" that has been dropped this year is called environmental protection!
In 2013, the whole country “talked about the changeâ€. As one of the industries with the most serious emissions of air pollutants, the steel industry is inevitably the “public target†for public opinion and policy regulation. However, for most steel companies on the profit and loss line, environmental costs are unbearable. Some steel companies estimate that the cost of producing one ton of steel will reach 100 yuan. According to the annual output of 720 million tons of China's steel industry, the investment in environmental protection will cost 72 billion yuan.
Of course, the Chinese steel industry has been seeking breakthroughs for many years. For example, in the past few years, the tide of buying minerals in the sea – steel companies hope to resolve the cost pressure of iron ore and change the situation of working for the three major mines. The advent of iron ore futures in 2013 has added a lot of help to Chinese steel companies to compete for iron ore pricing power.
At the same time, more and more steel companies joined the diversified army in 2013. Some steel companies are still diversified around the steel industry, while others learn from Wugang's good example of raising pigs, and they have done a different job with the main business – winemaking, selling water and selling water. However, although it seems to be a flower, but diversification will become a new profit point for steel enterprises or a new bleeding point, it still needs time to test.
Looking back, the hope of the steel industry is still "after death." The smog that continues to hang over the land forces the government to tackle the pollution problem, and environmental protection is becoming an opportunity to force the steel production capacity to clear quickly. The bottom of steel production capacity will be the time when the steel industry will regain its vitality. Obviously, a large number of steel companies will inevitably fall before "dawn", but if they can survive, it will be "the left is king."
In 2014, the steel industry did not say "spring".
Steel prices fell below the 1994 level, the industry faced the most severe capacity test papers
Looking back at the steel price in 2013, after reaching the annual high at the end of February, it began to fall all the way from March until the end of June hit the lowest point of the year. Subsequently, from July to August, steel prices once rose, but then oscillated downward. From the end of October to the present, the overall price of steel is in a state of shock consolidation.
However, although the steel price trend seems to be ups and downs, in fact this curve has been moving low. "As of the end of October, the steel price index has been below 100 points for 11 weeks." Zhang Changfu, vice president of China Steel Association, revealed.
what does this mean? The steel price index is calculated as the price of 1994 as 100. That is to say, one-quarter of the steel price this year has fallen below the 1994 price level.
The long-term "lower difficulty" of steel prices, the key crux lies in the serious overcapacity of China's steel industry. Over the years, the growth rate of China's steel production capacity has always been higher than the growth rate of demand. At the end of 2004, steel production capacity increased from 420 million tons to 970 million tons at the end of 2012, but the utilization rate of domestic steel production capacity only reached 72%, far below the reasonable level.
Although the production capacity is not enough, it has long been the consensus of the whole industry. However, the separatism of various interests has made the steel industry go all the way to the "more governance over the past" cycle.
Steel companies are usually the largest industrial companies in the region, contributing not only to the huge local GDP, but also to a large number of taxes and jobs. Under the "GDP first" concept of political achievements, local governments have a strong desire to enlarge and strengthen the steel industry.
It is also difficult for steel companies themselves to suppress the impulse to self-expansion driven by interest. In the eyes of many steel enterprise operators, this is a market where “dead friends are not deadâ€, and they pursue the scale competition effect. I believe that the bigger the better, as long as they can be stronger than others, they can live by others. .
As a result, while the backward production capacity has been vigorously eliminated, the new project has been on the rise and has become a major landscape for the Chinese steel industry in the past few years.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show that during the seven years from 2006 to 2012, the cumulative reduction in crude steel capacity was 76 million tons, while the cumulative new crude steel capacity was 404 million tons. According to some industry insiders, in 2013, China's crude steel production capacity will reach 1 billion tons, with over 200 million tons of overcapacity. At a previous industry conference, the chief economist of the Agricultural Bank, Song Song, even directly referred to the current overcapacity situation in the steel industry as “destructive disintegrationâ€.
For the Chinese steel industry, it is imperative to go to capacity. On October 15, 2013, the State Council issued the “Guiding Opinions on Resolving Overcapacity Policies†(hereinafter referred to as “Opinionsâ€), stating that it will effectively promote and resolve the severe overcapacity of steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, and shipbuilding industries. contradiction. Among them, the steel industry, as a major overcapacity, will need to compress 80 million tons of total capacity in the next five years.
From the perspective of the distribution of the steel industry, the key to achieving this goal is to look at the Hebei region. As the largest steel producing province in China, Hebei's crude steel output has ranked first in the country for 12 consecutive years. At present, the province's crude steel output is 180 million tons, and its production capacity and output are more than 1/4 of the national total.
In mid-September, Hebei Province’s “Implementation Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan of Hebei Province†(hereinafter referred to as the “Programâ€) specifically proposes that by the end of 2017, the province’s steel production capacity will be reduced by 60 million tons, which means At present, one third of the steel production capacity in Hebei Province will be eliminated. In addition, 20 million tons will be lost by 2020.
Therefore, if Hebei can complete the above-mentioned reduction of production tasks, the completion of the steel industry's established production reduction targets in the "Opinions" is basically no suspense.
In order to complete this is the most severe cut-off test paper in history, Hebei Province can also say that it has never been determined. It is reported that in order to ensure the completion of the task of reducing steel production capacity, Hebei will incorporate the steel industry structural adjustment target into the performance appraisal system for party committees and governments at all levels, and the provincial government will sign a letter of responsibility with each district and city government and Hebei Iron and Steel Group. Strengthen assessment and supervision.
"There are requirements from the central government, and the masses have expectations. Hebei has action." Zhang Qingwei, governor of Hebei Province, said that to resolve the excess capacity of the steel industry, both the government and the market must play a role in diverting a batch and transferring a batch of overseas Merger and reorganization and batch elimination.
On the morning of November 24, in the huge blasting sound, Hebei Province opened the prelude to the resolution of excess capacity. On the same day, Tangshan, Handan and Chengde concentrated on the dismantling of 10 steel enterprises and 16 converters, reducing the ironmaking capacity by 4.56 million tons and the steelmaking capacity of 6.8 million tons.
It is also reported that as of mid-December, Hebei has carried out the dismantling, suspension of construction and fines for 58 illegal projects; administrative accountability for two illegal projects of Wen'an Xingang and Anciji, and 9 people, Wen'an The county magistrate was dismissed and the capacity expansion was effectively controlled.
Environmentally-friendly heavy punches frequently attack steel companies to make achievements worse
If the compression capacity has already become the main theme of the Chinese steel industry, then the tone of environmental pollution control of steel enterprises has gradually proliferated in recent years, and finally reached a climax in 2013.
Since 2013, the average number of haze days in the country has been the highest in 52 years, and the history of smog days in 13 places has been recorded. 104 cities have been “fallenâ€. The smog of this heavy punch can be described as "quickly accurate": the heavy industrial cities and surrounding areas are basically spared, and PM2.5 bursts are on the rise.
The monthly and quarterly rankings of the “National 74 Key Cities' Air Quality†published by the Ministry of Environmental Protection showed that the top 10 most polluted cities in the country ranked in Hebei, Tangshan, Handan, Shijiazhuang, Xingtai and Baoding. The city is on the list.
Hebei is the largest province of steel, and steel companies are blaming for these data. It is reported that sintering and pellets are the main production links of pollutants in the steel industry. The current emission standards for this link are the “Steel Sintering and Pellet Industry Air Pollutant Emission Standards†promulgated by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2012. The upper limits of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are separately regulated. However, a research report released by UBS Securities in August this year said that although the environmental standards have been promulgated for some time, the current implementation is not satisfactory.
Industry insiders told reporters that this is also related to the difficulty of the actual operation of emission standards. Although many steel companies are equipped with environmentally friendly equipment, these equipments are difficult to operate. For example, steel sintering desulfurization technology is complex, wet, semi-dry, and dry methods coexist, and there is no mainstream standard. In addition, some blast furnaces are equipped with environmental protection devices, and some are not installed or installed but operate intermittently. However, there is no way to count the amount of polluted gas and dust that is finally discharged into the air, which is convenient for many steel companies to implement standards. Cut corners.
And steel companies themselves have a hard time to say. From January to October this year, the average profit per ton of steel was 0.84 yuan, which means that the profit generated by one ton of steel could not buy a bottle of mineral water. Under such profit levels, steel companies have to increase their spending on environmental protection, and they are really unable to make ends meet. Li Xinchuang, dean of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, said that the implementation of the environmental protection policy of the steel industry will certainly be very difficult. "The profits of steel companies are not high in themselves, and the country does not have a precedent for subsidies in this area. It is very likely that there will be no future. It will be more difficult for enterprises to extract some of them to strengthen environmental protection."
But now, with the public's dissatisfaction with the haze weather, public opinion is highly concerned about the pollution of heavy industry, and the steel industry has been unable to "hidden to hide" on the issue of environmental protection.
For a long time to come, environmental protection and compression capacity will become the top priority of the steel industry. It is worth mentioning that the major events of the two steel industries are quite complementary. Steel production capacity has been greatly reduced, which will effectively control pollution emissions. Compared with other means of reducing production capacity, it is more fair and effective to take environmental protection standards to “card†steel enterprises.
In fact, Hebei Province and the country have set a “military order†for reducing steel production by 60 million tons and 80 million tons respectively. The pressure from environmental protection is the key driver. In order to complete the above-mentioned production reduction targets as scheduled, a number of environmental protection heavy punches have also cooperated with each other.
In September 2013, the State Council issued the “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan†(hereinafter referred to as the “Action Planâ€). Subsequently, several ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Detailed Implementation Rules for the Implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areasâ€. According to the Action Plan, key industries including the steel industry will face clean production audits. By 2017, the sewage intensity will be reduced by more than 30% compared with 2012. Strict implementation of total pollutant discharge control will include sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and tobacco. Whether the dust and volatile organic matter emissions meet the total control requirements as the precondition for the environmental impact assessment of the construction project, the new steel project should implement the special emission limit of atmospheric pollutants; for the projects that have not passed the assessment and environmental impact assessment, the relevant departments It may not be approved, approved or filed, land shall not be provided, construction may not be approved, production licenses, safety production licenses, and pollutant discharge permits shall not be issued. Financial institutions shall not provide any form of new credit support. The relevant units shall not supply electricity or water.
Another media recently reported that some people in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that after communicating with the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Iron and Steel Association, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology agreed that the standard of using blast furnace equipment and other equipment to eliminate backward production capacity is unscientific, so in the "13th Five-Year Plan" It will no longer be used as a measure to eliminate backward production capacity, but will switch to energy-saving and environmental protection total control.
It is foreseeable that there will be more stringent environmental protection policies in the future. However, in the reporter's interview, some insiders believe that the steel industry is under great pressure on environmental protection, especially because it will inevitably increase the operating costs of steel enterprises. Therefore, it should not be too radical in the promotion of environmental protection. A buffer period.
In addition, industry insiders also called for “fairness†in the implementation of environmental protection policies. Some steel companies have done a good job in environmental protection, but their profits are not comparable to those of small steel enterprises or illegal small steel mills that do not pay attention to environmental protection. This is undoubtedly a blow to excellent steel enterprises. Therefore, the implementation of the local government must be truly implemented, and it is not possible to "clearly control the dark insurance" and ensure that the system from top to bottom is sound. All in all, whether it is environmental governance or capacity control, only the real implementation is in place, the steel industry can see the dawn again.
Ultra-low profit margins bitter 3 trillion yuan debt steel traders
Although people believe that after the environmental protection “tough battle†accelerates the promotion of production capacity, the steel industry will “stay dead and then live†and re-enter the “springâ€, but for every steel company, in this industry In the big change and reshuffle, the pain and death threat felt in front of us is the most direct.
According to the latest data of China Steel Association, 86 key steel enterprises achieved a profit of 1.716 billion yuan in October, a sharp drop of 47.46% month-on-month, reversing the previous three-month rally. Among them, 18 of the 86 steel companies suffered losses, and the loss increased to 20.93%. Despite the continuous growth in earnings from July to September, the accumulated profits of 86 key steel companies in the first three quarters reached 11.3 billion yuan, but their average net profit margin was only 0.41%, still at the lowest level in the industrial sector. This data even fell to 0.13% in the first half of this year. In the words of the industry, steel making is not as good as selling cabbage today.
Even as a listed steel company as an industry leader, its situation is not much better. According to public financial report data, 11 out of 33 listed steel companies reported losses in the first three quarters. Among them, Chongqing Iron and Steel lost 1.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.24%; Shougang shares lost 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.86%. In addition, Anyang Iron & Steel lost 370 million yuan, Ma Steel lost 329 million yuan, Hualing Steel lost 274.9 million yuan, Shandong Steel lost 128 million yuan.
Even the listed steel companies that made profits in the first three quarters have a "technical" source of profits. Asset restructuring, selling assets or extending the depreciation period of fixed assets are relatively common methods of turning losses. In addition, various government subsidies have contributed to the realization of positive profits for many steel companies. Taking last year's loss-making king, ST Angang, as an example, the company's nearly $700 million in profits through asset swaps accounted for the company's full profit in the third quarterly report. This year, Linggang has received a total of 380 million yuan in financial subsidies, which is more important for the company's profit of 0.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters.
In addition to carefully moving on the profit and loss line, for many steel companies, high financial risks are also dangerous "time bombs." According to the statistics of China Steel Association, as of the end of June, the total debt of 86 key steel enterprises nationwide reached 3.02 trillion yuan, of which bank loans amounted to 1.3 trillion yuan. That is to say, 86 key steel enterprises have an average debt of 34.88 billion yuan per household!
What does 3 trillion yuan mean? This is 1.67 times of the total sales revenue of 86 key steel enterprises in the first half of this year, which is 1327 times the total profit of these steel mills!
In addition, in the first half of this year, the total asset-liability ratio of the steel industry has reached 69.47%. Although the industry characteristics determine the overall asset-liability ratio of the steel industry is high, even so, when the asset-liability ratio exceeds 80%, the alarm is ringing. Among these key steel enterprises, 39 of them have an asset-liability ratio of more than 80% in the first half of this year, 15 steel companies have exceeded 90%, and 5 steel companies have exceeded 100%. According to industry sources, the asset-liability ratio of China's key steel companies at the end of September has turned into 69.63%, reaching an all-time high in the past 10 years.
In this regard, Li Xinchuang, president of China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, even said that it may not take a year, the first dominoes in the steel industry are not overcapacity, but the capital chain is broken.
It is worth mentioning that in the drama of the "Les Miserables" staged in the steel industry, in addition to the protagonist steel enterprises, steel traders also played a sighing role.
There is such a segment in the steel trade industry: steel mills eat meat, steel traders and bones; steel mills, bones, steel traders drink soup; steel mills drink soup, steel traders drink northwest wind; steel mills drink northwest wind, steel Traders vomit blood.
When the number of steel mills is large, the steel traders can only helplessly vomit blood. As an intermediary between steel mills and downstream customers, in recent years, steel traders have frequently encountered customers delaying orders, defaulting on payment, and bank loans tightening. Steel traders' capital chains are becoming increasingly tight, and some have fallen into a fracture crisis.
In the most prosperous era, steel trade enterprises in Shanghai and surrounding areas once developed to more than 6,000, with a workforce of up to 60,000. But today, these steel trade companies have almost halved, and companies that barely survive are struggling.
The steel trade boss, this once wealthy and fascinating wealth group, also frequently hangs with the words "running the road" and "suicide". According to media reports, no fewer than 10 steel trade bosses committed suicide in a “death note†recorded by a female boss of the Shanghai Chamber of Commerce in Zhouning County, Fujian Province. The direct cause of their demise is the continued business losses and bank debt collection.
Iron ore futures bid for monopoly pricing steel enterprises want to borrow diversified "redemption"
Of course, for the Chinese steel industry, the good news is still there – the advent of iron ore futures is one of the most important ones.
For many years, although China is the world's largest consumer of iron ore, the pricing power of iron ore has always been in the hands of a few oligarchs. The high iron ore prices have made the Chinese steel industry always have the idea of ​​working for the “three major minesâ€. Even if steel prices have fallen sharply in recent years, iron ore prices are still at a high level, and steel prices have fallen much more than mine prices.
In fact, Chinese steel companies have gone to overseas for ore mining and mining. The most important driving force is to increase the self-sufficiency rate of ore, increase the right to speak in iron ore price negotiations, and obtain stable iron ore at a more favorable price. Stone supply reduces production costs. After several years of paving operations, the effects have also appeared.
Take WISCO, after the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese steel company frequently “goed to the sea†and became the largest iron ore owner of global steel manufacturers by 2012. It is expected to produce its annual overseas ore output in 2013. Up to 15 million tons, in 2016, iron ore can be fully self-sufficient.
According to Li Welfare, vice president of Minmetals Group, the output of overseas iron ore equity mines of Chinese steel enterprises will reach 150 million tons in 2015, which is expected to reverse the situation that iron ore prices are dominated by foreign mining giants.
On October 18 this year, the world's first physical iron ore futures listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will provide new tools for Chinese steel companies to fight for the three major mines and compete for iron ore pricing power.
At present, the output of 80%-90% of the international iron ore giants is based on the Platts Index, and the Platts Index is based on the bidding prices of the three major mines. Because the Platts index sample size is small and the preparation method is not open, the three major mine bidding processes are not public, so the price transparency is subject to market controversy.
In the opinion of the industry, iron ore futures are designed to be delivered in kind, which can truly reflect the market supply and demand relationship, reflect the fair market price, and help to construct an objective and fair pricing system. With iron ore futures, domestic companies can participate in the market with lower transaction costs and more directly and conveniently, so that their trading intentions can be reflected to the maximum extent at home, which will help to gradually upgrade Chinese steel enterprises, traders, etc. The bargaining power of the bargaining.
At present, iron ore futures trading that has been running for two months is more active, industry customers are more active, the market is running smoothly, price discovery and hedging functions are gradually appearing, and a satisfactory answer is made.
However, iron ore futures still have a lot to go if they want to really shake the pricing power of iron ore. The enthusiasm of the three major mines to participate in the Chinese version of iron ore futures is not high, and if they can't attract them to fight, iron ore futures will become the self-entertainment between Chinese steel and mining companies. Became a core pricing power.
At the moment, steel companies who are unwilling to wait passively are more willing to take the initiative to seek self-salvation. Diversification has become the unanimous choice of many steel companies, and they hope to seek new sources of profit.
The diversification of steel enterprises is not a new topic. For example, the above-mentioned foreign investment in WISCO is one of the common diversification directions of steel enterprises. WISCO also tasted the sweetness among them. The company has previously admitted that in the past two years, the entire industry has suffered a large loss, WISCO can maintain a small profit, of which the revenue from the mine accounted for a considerable portion.
In 2013, more and more steel companies joined the ranks. Some steel companies are still diversified around the steel industry, or seek minerals upstream, or extend to steel e-commerce, logistics and other fields. For example, Baosteel officially announced the “electric shock†at the end of May this year, and launched the steel spot trading e-commerce platform – Shanghai Iron and Steel Trading Center. Baosteel also did not hide its “ambitious ambitionsâ€: it wanted to create a “steel version of Amazonâ€.
Some steel companies have boldly crossed the border and have done a job that is incompatible with the main business. This has to mention WISCO. Last year, its plan to raise pigs caused an uproar after it was revealed. Then Deng Qilin, chairman of WISCO, further calmly stated that the company also plans to purchase thousands of acres of land for three-dimensional ecological farming. Urban logistics modernization services such as education, water and electricity maintenance, and car rental.
Perhaps with the example of WISCO in the forefront, many steel companies also favor the “clothing, food, housing and transportation†industry. For example, in September this year, private steel giant Tianjin Rongcheng Group announced its entry into the liquor industry and built a 100,000-ton liquor production base project in Chenzhou. The total investment is expected to reach 12 billion yuan. The listed steel company Fangda Steel also announced that it will invest 20 million yuan and 100 million yuan respectively into the catering industry and the mineral water industry.
Of course, for companies, diversification is a double-edged sword, and a new profit point may become a new bleeding point. As early as around 2000, the domestic steel industry has experienced a round of diversified development boom, from electronics to services, in many areas. But in the end, most of them failed, and they had to withdraw from contraction.
Many analysts believe that the current diversification of steel companies is a useful attempt. However, the extension of this kind of business should generally be better around the steel industry chain, which can better enhance the strength of enterprises to withstand market risks. Other industries such as food and beverage, which are not related to steel, whether it is market channels or talent management, have no advantage in steel enterprises. The development risk of this non-main business is not small.
But in any case, black cats and white cats, the ones that can catch the mouse are good cats. For the steel companies, in the face of the current intensified and difficult to predict how long the industry will continue to reshuffle, only to try to live the way, only to talk about "the left is king."
Analysis of the difficulties faced by the steel industry, overcapacity has become a common topic. Over the years, although the steel industry's capacity control policy has not been introduced, the reality is that on the one hand, backward production capacity is eliminated, and on the other hand, new projects are continuously launched, and the production capacity is reduced more and more. China's steel production capacity in 2009 was about 700 million tons, and by 2013 this figure has increased to 976 million tons. This is also the leading cause of the continued low downturn in steel prices, which ultimately dragged down the profits of steel companies.
For the steel enterprises that are swaying and swaying, the "last straw" that has been dropped this year is called environmental protection!
In 2013, the whole country “talked about the changeâ€. As one of the industries with the most serious emissions of air pollutants, the steel industry is inevitably the “public target†for public opinion and policy regulation. However, for most steel companies on the profit and loss line, environmental costs are unbearable. Some steel companies estimate that the cost of producing one ton of steel will reach 100 yuan. According to the annual output of 720 million tons of China's steel industry, the investment in environmental protection will cost 72 billion yuan.
Of course, the Chinese steel industry has been seeking breakthroughs for many years. For example, in the past few years, the tide of buying minerals in the sea – steel companies hope to resolve the cost pressure of iron ore and change the situation of working for the three major mines. The advent of iron ore futures in 2013 has added a lot of help to Chinese steel companies to compete for iron ore pricing power.
At the same time, more and more steel companies joined the diversified army in 2013. Some steel companies are still diversified around the steel industry, while others learn from Wugang's good example of raising pigs, and they have done a different job with the main business – winemaking, selling water and selling water. However, although it seems to be a flower, but diversification will become a new profit point for steel enterprises or a new bleeding point, it still needs time to test.
Looking back, the hope of the steel industry is still "after death." The smog that continues to hang over the land forces the government to tackle the pollution problem, and environmental protection is becoming an opportunity to force the steel production capacity to clear quickly. The bottom of steel production capacity will be the time when the steel industry will regain its vitality. Obviously, a large number of steel companies will inevitably fall before "dawn", but if they can survive, it will be "the left is king."
In 2014, the steel industry did not say "spring".
Steel prices fell below the 1994 level, the industry faced the most severe capacity test papers
Looking back at the steel price in 2013, after reaching the annual high at the end of February, it began to fall all the way from March until the end of June hit the lowest point of the year. Subsequently, from July to August, steel prices once rose, but then oscillated downward. From the end of October to the present, the overall price of steel is in a state of shock consolidation.
However, although the steel price trend seems to be ups and downs, in fact this curve has been moving low. "As of the end of October, the steel price index has been below 100 points for 11 weeks." Zhang Changfu, vice president of China Steel Association, revealed.
what does this mean? The steel price index is calculated as the price of 1994 as 100. That is to say, one-quarter of the steel price this year has fallen below the 1994 price level.
The long-term "lower difficulty" of steel prices, the key crux lies in the serious overcapacity of China's steel industry. Over the years, the growth rate of China's steel production capacity has always been higher than the growth rate of demand. At the end of 2004, steel production capacity increased from 420 million tons to 970 million tons at the end of 2012, but the utilization rate of domestic steel production capacity only reached 72%, far below the reasonable level.
Although the production capacity is not enough, it has long been the consensus of the whole industry. However, the separatism of various interests has made the steel industry go all the way to the "more governance over the past" cycle.
Steel companies are usually the largest industrial companies in the region, contributing not only to the huge local GDP, but also to a large number of taxes and jobs. Under the "GDP first" concept of political achievements, local governments have a strong desire to enlarge and strengthen the steel industry.
It is also difficult for steel companies themselves to suppress the impulse to self-expansion driven by interest. In the eyes of many steel enterprise operators, this is a market where “dead friends are not deadâ€, and they pursue the scale competition effect. I believe that the bigger the better, as long as they can be stronger than others, they can live by others. .
As a result, while the backward production capacity has been vigorously eliminated, the new project has been on the rise and has become a major landscape for the Chinese steel industry in the past few years.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show that during the seven years from 2006 to 2012, the cumulative reduction in crude steel capacity was 76 million tons, while the cumulative new crude steel capacity was 404 million tons. According to some industry insiders, in 2013, China's crude steel production capacity will reach 1 billion tons, with over 200 million tons of overcapacity. At a previous industry conference, the chief economist of the Agricultural Bank, Song Song, even directly referred to the current overcapacity situation in the steel industry as “destructive disintegrationâ€.
For the Chinese steel industry, it is imperative to go to capacity. On October 15, 2013, the State Council issued the “Guiding Opinions on Resolving Overcapacity Policies†(hereinafter referred to as “Opinionsâ€), stating that it will effectively promote and resolve the severe overcapacity of steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass, and shipbuilding industries. contradiction. Among them, the steel industry, as a major overcapacity, will need to compress 80 million tons of total capacity in the next five years.
From the perspective of the distribution of the steel industry, the key to achieving this goal is to look at the Hebei region. As the largest steel producing province in China, Hebei's crude steel output has ranked first in the country for 12 consecutive years. At present, the province's crude steel output is 180 million tons, and its production capacity and output are more than 1/4 of the national total.
In mid-September, Hebei Province’s “Implementation Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan of Hebei Province†(hereinafter referred to as the “Programâ€) specifically proposes that by the end of 2017, the province’s steel production capacity will be reduced by 60 million tons, which means At present, one third of the steel production capacity in Hebei Province will be eliminated. In addition, 20 million tons will be lost by 2020.
Therefore, if Hebei can complete the above-mentioned reduction of production tasks, the completion of the steel industry's established production reduction targets in the "Opinions" is basically no suspense.
In order to complete this is the most severe cut-off test paper in history, Hebei Province can also say that it has never been determined. It is reported that in order to ensure the completion of the task of reducing steel production capacity, Hebei will incorporate the steel industry structural adjustment target into the performance appraisal system for party committees and governments at all levels, and the provincial government will sign a letter of responsibility with each district and city government and Hebei Iron and Steel Group. Strengthen assessment and supervision.
"There are requirements from the central government, and the masses have expectations. Hebei has action." Zhang Qingwei, governor of Hebei Province, said that to resolve the excess capacity of the steel industry, both the government and the market must play a role in diverting a batch and transferring a batch of overseas Merger and reorganization and batch elimination.
On the morning of November 24, in the huge blasting sound, Hebei Province opened the prelude to the resolution of excess capacity. On the same day, Tangshan, Handan and Chengde concentrated on the dismantling of 10 steel enterprises and 16 converters, reducing the ironmaking capacity by 4.56 million tons and the steelmaking capacity of 6.8 million tons.
It is also reported that as of mid-December, Hebei has carried out the dismantling, suspension of construction and fines for 58 illegal projects; administrative accountability for two illegal projects of Wen'an Xingang and Anciji, and 9 people, Wen'an The county magistrate was dismissed and the capacity expansion was effectively controlled.
Environmentally-friendly heavy punches frequently attack steel companies to make achievements worse
If the compression capacity has already become the main theme of the Chinese steel industry, then the tone of environmental pollution control of steel enterprises has gradually proliferated in recent years, and finally reached a climax in 2013.
Since 2013, the average number of haze days in the country has been the highest in 52 years, and the history of smog days in 13 places has been recorded. 104 cities have been “fallenâ€. The smog of this heavy punch can be described as "quickly accurate": the heavy industrial cities and surrounding areas are basically spared, and PM2.5 bursts are on the rise.
The monthly and quarterly rankings of the “National 74 Key Cities' Air Quality†published by the Ministry of Environmental Protection showed that the top 10 most polluted cities in the country ranked in Hebei, Tangshan, Handan, Shijiazhuang, Xingtai and Baoding. The city is on the list.
Hebei is the largest province of steel, and steel companies are blaming for these data. It is reported that sintering and pellets are the main production links of pollutants in the steel industry. The current emission standards for this link are the “Steel Sintering and Pellet Industry Air Pollutant Emission Standards†promulgated by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2012. The upper limits of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides are separately regulated. However, a research report released by UBS Securities in August this year said that although the environmental standards have been promulgated for some time, the current implementation is not satisfactory.
Industry insiders told reporters that this is also related to the difficulty of the actual operation of emission standards. Although many steel companies are equipped with environmentally friendly equipment, these equipments are difficult to operate. For example, steel sintering desulfurization technology is complex, wet, semi-dry, and dry methods coexist, and there is no mainstream standard. In addition, some blast furnaces are equipped with environmental protection devices, and some are not installed or installed but operate intermittently. However, there is no way to count the amount of polluted gas and dust that is finally discharged into the air, which is convenient for many steel companies to implement standards. Cut corners.
And steel companies themselves have a hard time to say. From January to October this year, the average profit per ton of steel was 0.84 yuan, which means that the profit generated by one ton of steel could not buy a bottle of mineral water. Under such profit levels, steel companies have to increase their spending on environmental protection, and they are really unable to make ends meet. Li Xinchuang, dean of the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, said that the implementation of the environmental protection policy of the steel industry will certainly be very difficult. "The profits of steel companies are not high in themselves, and the country does not have a precedent for subsidies in this area. It is very likely that there will be no future. It will be more difficult for enterprises to extract some of them to strengthen environmental protection."
But now, with the public's dissatisfaction with the haze weather, public opinion is highly concerned about the pollution of heavy industry, and the steel industry has been unable to "hidden to hide" on the issue of environmental protection.
For a long time to come, environmental protection and compression capacity will become the top priority of the steel industry. It is worth mentioning that the major events of the two steel industries are quite complementary. Steel production capacity has been greatly reduced, which will effectively control pollution emissions. Compared with other means of reducing production capacity, it is more fair and effective to take environmental protection standards to “card†steel enterprises.
In fact, Hebei Province and the country have set a “military order†for reducing steel production by 60 million tons and 80 million tons respectively. The pressure from environmental protection is the key driver. In order to complete the above-mentioned production reduction targets as scheduled, a number of environmental protection heavy punches have also cooperated with each other.
In September 2013, the State Council issued the “Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan†(hereinafter referred to as the “Action Planâ€). Subsequently, several ministries and commissions jointly issued the “Detailed Implementation Rules for the Implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Surrounding Areasâ€. According to the Action Plan, key industries including the steel industry will face clean production audits. By 2017, the sewage intensity will be reduced by more than 30% compared with 2012. Strict implementation of total pollutant discharge control will include sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and tobacco. Whether the dust and volatile organic matter emissions meet the total control requirements as the precondition for the environmental impact assessment of the construction project, the new steel project should implement the special emission limit of atmospheric pollutants; for the projects that have not passed the assessment and environmental impact assessment, the relevant departments It may not be approved, approved or filed, land shall not be provided, construction may not be approved, production licenses, safety production licenses, and pollutant discharge permits shall not be issued. Financial institutions shall not provide any form of new credit support. The relevant units shall not supply electricity or water.
Another media recently reported that some people in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that after communicating with the National Development and Reform Commission and the China Iron and Steel Association, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology agreed that the standard of using blast furnace equipment and other equipment to eliminate backward production capacity is unscientific, so in the "13th Five-Year Plan" It will no longer be used as a measure to eliminate backward production capacity, but will switch to energy-saving and environmental protection total control.
It is foreseeable that there will be more stringent environmental protection policies in the future. However, in the reporter's interview, some insiders believe that the steel industry is under great pressure on environmental protection, especially because it will inevitably increase the operating costs of steel enterprises. Therefore, it should not be too radical in the promotion of environmental protection. A buffer period.
In addition, industry insiders also called for “fairness†in the implementation of environmental protection policies. Some steel companies have done a good job in environmental protection, but their profits are not comparable to those of small steel enterprises or illegal small steel mills that do not pay attention to environmental protection. This is undoubtedly a blow to excellent steel enterprises. Therefore, the implementation of the local government must be truly implemented, and it is not possible to "clearly control the dark insurance" and ensure that the system from top to bottom is sound. All in all, whether it is environmental governance or capacity control, only the real implementation is in place, the steel industry can see the dawn again.
Ultra-low profit margins bitter 3 trillion yuan debt steel traders
Although people believe that after the environmental protection “tough battle†accelerates the promotion of production capacity, the steel industry will “stay dead and then live†and re-enter the “springâ€, but for every steel company, in this industry In the big change and reshuffle, the pain and death threat felt in front of us is the most direct.
According to the latest data of China Steel Association, 86 key steel enterprises achieved a profit of 1.716 billion yuan in October, a sharp drop of 47.46% month-on-month, reversing the previous three-month rally. Among them, 18 of the 86 steel companies suffered losses, and the loss increased to 20.93%. Despite the continuous growth in earnings from July to September, the accumulated profits of 86 key steel companies in the first three quarters reached 11.3 billion yuan, but their average net profit margin was only 0.41%, still at the lowest level in the industrial sector. This data even fell to 0.13% in the first half of this year. In the words of the industry, steel making is not as good as selling cabbage today.
Even as a listed steel company as an industry leader, its situation is not much better. According to public financial report data, 11 out of 33 listed steel companies reported losses in the first three quarters. Among them, Chongqing Iron and Steel lost 1.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.24%; Shougang shares lost 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.86%. In addition, Anyang Iron & Steel lost 370 million yuan, Ma Steel lost 329 million yuan, Hualing Steel lost 274.9 million yuan, Shandong Steel lost 128 million yuan.
Even the listed steel companies that made profits in the first three quarters have a "technical" source of profits. Asset restructuring, selling assets or extending the depreciation period of fixed assets are relatively common methods of turning losses. In addition, various government subsidies have contributed to the realization of positive profits for many steel companies. Taking last year's loss-making king, ST Angang, as an example, the company's nearly $700 million in profits through asset swaps accounted for the company's full profit in the third quarterly report. This year, Linggang has received a total of 380 million yuan in financial subsidies, which is more important for the company's profit of 0.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters.
In addition to carefully moving on the profit and loss line, for many steel companies, high financial risks are also dangerous "time bombs." According to the statistics of China Steel Association, as of the end of June, the total debt of 86 key steel enterprises nationwide reached 3.02 trillion yuan, of which bank loans amounted to 1.3 trillion yuan. That is to say, 86 key steel enterprises have an average debt of 34.88 billion yuan per household!
What does 3 trillion yuan mean? This is 1.67 times of the total sales revenue of 86 key steel enterprises in the first half of this year, which is 1327 times the total profit of these steel mills!
In addition, in the first half of this year, the total asset-liability ratio of the steel industry has reached 69.47%. Although the industry characteristics determine the overall asset-liability ratio of the steel industry is high, even so, when the asset-liability ratio exceeds 80%, the alarm is ringing. Among these key steel enterprises, 39 of them have an asset-liability ratio of more than 80% in the first half of this year, 15 steel companies have exceeded 90%, and 5 steel companies have exceeded 100%. According to industry sources, the asset-liability ratio of China's key steel companies at the end of September has turned into 69.63%, reaching an all-time high in the past 10 years.
In this regard, Li Xinchuang, president of China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, even said that it may not take a year, the first dominoes in the steel industry are not overcapacity, but the capital chain is broken.
It is worth mentioning that in the drama of the "Les Miserables" staged in the steel industry, in addition to the protagonist steel enterprises, steel traders also played a sighing role.
There is such a segment in the steel trade industry: steel mills eat meat, steel traders and bones; steel mills, bones, steel traders drink soup; steel mills drink soup, steel traders drink northwest wind; steel mills drink northwest wind, steel Traders vomit blood.
When the number of steel mills is large, the steel traders can only helplessly vomit blood. As an intermediary between steel mills and downstream customers, in recent years, steel traders have frequently encountered customers delaying orders, defaulting on payment, and bank loans tightening. Steel traders' capital chains are becoming increasingly tight, and some have fallen into a fracture crisis.
In the most prosperous era, steel trade enterprises in Shanghai and surrounding areas once developed to more than 6,000, with a workforce of up to 60,000. But today, these steel trade companies have almost halved, and companies that barely survive are struggling.
The steel trade boss, this once wealthy and fascinating wealth group, also frequently hangs with the words "running the road" and "suicide". According to media reports, no fewer than 10 steel trade bosses committed suicide in a “death note†recorded by a female boss of the Shanghai Chamber of Commerce in Zhouning County, Fujian Province. The direct cause of their demise is the continued business losses and bank debt collection.
Iron ore futures bid for monopoly pricing steel enterprises want to borrow diversified "redemption"
Of course, for the Chinese steel industry, the good news is still there – the advent of iron ore futures is one of the most important ones.
For many years, although China is the world's largest consumer of iron ore, the pricing power of iron ore has always been in the hands of a few oligarchs. The high iron ore prices have made the Chinese steel industry always have the idea of ​​working for the “three major minesâ€. Even if steel prices have fallen sharply in recent years, iron ore prices are still at a high level, and steel prices have fallen much more than mine prices.
In fact, Chinese steel companies have gone to overseas for ore mining and mining. The most important driving force is to increase the self-sufficiency rate of ore, increase the right to speak in iron ore price negotiations, and obtain stable iron ore at a more favorable price. Stone supply reduces production costs. After several years of paving operations, the effects have also appeared.
Take WISCO, after the global financial crisis in 2008, the Chinese steel company frequently “goed to the sea†and became the largest iron ore owner of global steel manufacturers by 2012. It is expected to produce its annual overseas ore output in 2013. Up to 15 million tons, in 2016, iron ore can be fully self-sufficient.
According to Li Welfare, vice president of Minmetals Group, the output of overseas iron ore equity mines of Chinese steel enterprises will reach 150 million tons in 2015, which is expected to reverse the situation that iron ore prices are dominated by foreign mining giants.
On October 18 this year, the world's first physical iron ore futures listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will provide new tools for Chinese steel companies to fight for the three major mines and compete for iron ore pricing power.
At present, the output of 80%-90% of the international iron ore giants is based on the Platts Index, and the Platts Index is based on the bidding prices of the three major mines. Because the Platts index sample size is small and the preparation method is not open, the three major mine bidding processes are not public, so the price transparency is subject to market controversy.
In the opinion of the industry, iron ore futures are designed to be delivered in kind, which can truly reflect the market supply and demand relationship, reflect the fair market price, and help to construct an objective and fair pricing system. With iron ore futures, domestic companies can participate in the market with lower transaction costs and more directly and conveniently, so that their trading intentions can be reflected to the maximum extent at home, which will help to gradually upgrade Chinese steel enterprises, traders, etc. The bargaining power of the bargaining.
At present, iron ore futures trading that has been running for two months is more active, industry customers are more active, the market is running smoothly, price discovery and hedging functions are gradually appearing, and a satisfactory answer is made.
However, iron ore futures still have a lot to go if they want to really shake the pricing power of iron ore. The enthusiasm of the three major mines to participate in the Chinese version of iron ore futures is not high, and if they can't attract them to fight, iron ore futures will become the self-entertainment between Chinese steel and mining companies. Became a core pricing power.
At the moment, steel companies who are unwilling to wait passively are more willing to take the initiative to seek self-salvation. Diversification has become the unanimous choice of many steel companies, and they hope to seek new sources of profit.
The diversification of steel enterprises is not a new topic. For example, the above-mentioned foreign investment in WISCO is one of the common diversification directions of steel enterprises. WISCO also tasted the sweetness among them. The company has previously admitted that in the past two years, the entire industry has suffered a large loss, WISCO can maintain a small profit, of which the revenue from the mine accounted for a considerable portion.
In 2013, more and more steel companies joined the ranks. Some steel companies are still diversified around the steel industry, or seek minerals upstream, or extend to steel e-commerce, logistics and other fields. For example, Baosteel officially announced the “electric shock†at the end of May this year, and launched the steel spot trading e-commerce platform – Shanghai Iron and Steel Trading Center. Baosteel also did not hide its “ambitious ambitionsâ€: it wanted to create a “steel version of Amazonâ€.
Some steel companies have boldly crossed the border and have done a job that is incompatible with the main business. This has to mention WISCO. Last year, its plan to raise pigs caused an uproar after it was revealed. Then Deng Qilin, chairman of WISCO, further calmly stated that the company also plans to purchase thousands of acres of land for three-dimensional ecological farming. Urban logistics modernization services such as education, water and electricity maintenance, and car rental.
Perhaps with the example of WISCO in the forefront, many steel companies also favor the “clothing, food, housing and transportation†industry. For example, in September this year, private steel giant Tianjin Rongcheng Group announced its entry into the liquor industry and built a 100,000-ton liquor production base project in Chenzhou. The total investment is expected to reach 12 billion yuan. The listed steel company Fangda Steel also announced that it will invest 20 million yuan and 100 million yuan respectively into the catering industry and the mineral water industry.
Of course, for companies, diversification is a double-edged sword, and a new profit point may become a new bleeding point. As early as around 2000, the domestic steel industry has experienced a round of diversified development boom, from electronics to services, in many areas. But in the end, most of them failed, and they had to withdraw from contraction.
Many analysts believe that the current diversification of steel companies is a useful attempt. However, the extension of this kind of business should generally be better around the steel industry chain, which can better enhance the strength of enterprises to withstand market risks. Other industries such as food and beverage, which are not related to steel, whether it is market channels or talent management, have no advantage in steel enterprises. The development risk of this non-main business is not small.
But in any case, black cats and white cats, the ones that can catch the mouse are good cats. For the steel companies, in the face of the current intensified and difficult to predict how long the industry will continue to reshuffle, only to try to live the way, only to talk about "the left is king."
Euro Facade Frame System,European Style Facade Frame System
Chuzhou Jincheng Metalwork Co.,Ltd , https://www.jinchengscaffold.com