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China Aluminum Online is relatively close. The problem of overcapacity in electrolytic aluminum in China has been widely debated. There is no consensus in the public opinions that the elimination of outdated production capacity and the continued suppression of total production capacity have become the future of China's electrolytic aluminum industry. The main task of 5 years. From the perspective of supply and demand relationship of electrolytic aluminum in China in the past three years, in 2007, the consumption of electrolytic aluminum was 12.347 million tons, and the output was 12.559 million tons. In 2008, the consumption was 8.648 million tons, and the output was 9.349 million tons. In 2009, the consumption of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum was 711.9. Million tons, output 7.806 million tons. Regardless of the pre-financial or post-crisis era of 2008, China's electrolytic aluminum industry has always had the potential for overcapacity. If we open the horizon, looking at the changes in the relationship between electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the major producing areas in the world, the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry, which originally appeared as a side-by-side aspect, will present its other side in front of you. Looking at the global electrolytic aluminum industry, in the seemingly balanced market of supply and demand, regional market forces have been surging.
In the recent 10 years, the global electrolytic aluminum market is basically in a state of steady growth. The balance of supply and demand has been balanced, and there has been no serious surplus or shortage of output. However, if the entire market is analyzed in different regions, the market change in the electrolytic aluminum market is still very obvious.
Through the subregional data of the global electrolytic aluminum capacity expansion from 2003 to 2010, it can be seen that China's capacity expansion is larger, reaching 16.684 million tons, followed by the Middle East, with 1.587 million tons of new capacity. In India, the capacity is increased by 1,016,000 tons. In addition, the capacity expansion of electrolytic aluminum in Russia and Northern Europe is also very significant. However, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Western Europe and North America has declined. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum in North America has shrunk to 924,000 tons, and the production capacity in Western Europe has shrunk by 82,000 tons. The shrinking of production capacity in North America and Western Europe is basically due to the elimination of old production capacity.
From 2010 to 2014, the global electrolytic aluminum production capacity expansion will continue to favor China, Russia, India, and Northern Europe. According to Brookhurt's research data, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will expand by 3.829 million tons by 2014, while Russia, India, the Middle East, and Northern Europe will have an expansion capacity of 1.517 million tons, 700,000 tons, 320,000 tons, and 130,000 tons, respectively. Moreover, the production capacity in developed regions such as North America and Western Europe is also shrinking. Based on this data, we can clearly see that the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is making great strides in the area of ​​low-cost electrolytic aluminum production. After 2014, the world's electrolytic aluminum structure will undergo great changes, and the center of electrolytic aluminum production will be completely relocated to the east of the world.
The cost analysis shows that the focus on eastward shifting to the simple cost analysis of electrolytic aluminum production shows that alumina and energy prices are the main components of electrolytic aluminum production costs. In the electrolytic aluminum production cost, alumina raw material costs accounted for 33% of the total cost, energy costs accounted for a larger proportion reached 39%, labor costs only accounted for 6%, other production raw material costs accounted for 13%, and the remaining 9% It is the other cost necessary for production.
Take a look at several key areas in the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the next five years, without exception, all have unique advantages in energy or resources. Russia and Northern Europe have cheap hydropower energy, which allows them to occupy unparalleled advantages in electrolytic aluminum production with high energy consumption. As a newly emerging region, the two electrolytic aluminum plants in Qatar and UAE use local oil resources that are inexhaustible. Power generation has greatly reduced energy costs. Although the reserves of India's bauxite are not large, its ore's taste is quite high. The rich resources of Sanshui soft-aluminum allow other major electrolytic aluminum production areas to covet, and cheap labor is also effectively reduced. The cost of ore mining. Looking back at China, the huge reserves of mineral resources, abundant coal and hydropower resources in the western region, and cheap prices are the main reasons for the rapid expansion of production capacity in the past decade. The investment inertia of previous years will lead to further rapid expansion of production capacity in the future if the market is basically saturated. The phenomenon of the eastward shift of the global electrolytic aluminum industry center will become more apparent.
Cost advantages will be lost?
As we all know, the great development of China's electrolytic aluminum industry in the past 10 years has come from low energy and bauxite prices. It is understood that at present, the annual expansion rate of electrolytic aluminum industry in China is around 20%, and according to this trend, the original energy and raw material resources will be engulfed by fierce market competition. If you go against the tide and go back, you can expect that China's electrolytic aluminum industry will be seriously threatened from other production regions such as Russia, India, the Middle East, and Northern Europe in the next five years, and its advantages will be lost. Although we are still confident about the consumption of electrolytic aluminum in China based on urbanization and industrialization in China, from a medium-term and even long-term perspective, electrolytic aluminum production in China is facing almost all factors involved in fixed and variable costs. Stress.
Moreover, the consumption of electricity generated by electrolytic aluminum accounted for nearly 10% of China's national electricity consumption. The Chinese government facing major energy-saving emission reduction challenges will naturally not see the rapid expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. Reviewing the macro-control policies of the past few years, every electrolytic aluminum industry is on the list.
Excessive production capacity and superimposed mineral resources have made China's electrolytic aluminum companies have to face the increasingly serious situation of relying on imported raw materials to produce, and the increase in foreign dependence has brought more uncertainties to electrolytic aluminum production. factor. There have been such cases before: From 2003 to 2007, with the rapid progress of China's industrialization, China's electrolytic aluminum industry became a blowout-type development, and the global alumina supply was stretched in the short-term, with the spot price from the beginning of 2003 per ton. The $268 rose to $621 per tonne in April 2006. According to the data of 2009, 46% of the raw materials required by China's electrolytic aluminum industry come from foreign markets, of which, the amount of imported bauxite has reached 20 million tons, equivalent to approximately 7.61 million tons of alumina, which accounts for about 28% of domestic alumina demand. %, imported 4.94 million tons of alumina, which accounted for about 18% of domestic alumina demand.
Although domestic alumina production is also increasing rapidly year by year, this kind of growth persistence is poor. As an important raw material for electrolytic aluminum production, it is not a mystery that the price has stabilized for quite some time. Moreover, with the panic after the global financial crisis, Europe and the United States economic bottoming expectations, the increase in the amount of bauxite mining has slowed down, which will eventually lead to increased production costs of electrolytic aluminum enterprises.
Developing overseas resources with little effort Since 2007, Chinese electrolytic aluminum producers have started an upsurge of developing overseas mineral resources in order to seize the future resource market. But after three years, the original ambitions and ambitions were exchanged for results.
China's annual project for 10 million tons of bauxite and 2.1 million tons of alumina in Australia was shelved; Bossein’s acquisition of 80% of the annual capacity of 20 million tons of bauxite in Ghana's Inchiniso area was shelved, and Qingtongxia Aluminum in India The annual project of 80 million tons of bauxite resources (a 50% equity joint venture) and plans to build an annual capacity of 1 million tons of alumina will also be put on hold... The desire to invest in overseas mineral resources is good, but because of our business With no prior overseas investment experience, the second did not understand the relevant experts in the relevant investment, making foreign resource investment projects repeatedly frustrated.
An individual investor who has had experience investing in minerals in Africa told the author: “Looking at Guinea’s bauxite mines, Kenya’s copper mines, we have money, buy it! You can be silly when you sign a contract. A mineral investment contract has more than 1,000 pages and the content of the provisions is quite detailed, and the mineral investment law in Africa is also quite tedious and has no way of understanding.We would like to consult a lawyer, and there is no expert in China that studies the African mineral investment law. The local mineral professional lawyers in Africa have an hourly charge of more than 1,000 US dollars. It is astounding that there are any items in the contract that are slippery and slippery. You can't find the contract. We will wait for the contract to lose out.†Such an explanation The timing of investing in overseas mineral resources is still immature. It is only a matter of time before you want to gain the right to speak in future resources in this way.
Today's China's electrolytic aluminum industry has become a major component of the world's electrolytic aluminum industry. China's aluminum demand is among the highest in the world. The future of China's aluminum metal market will undoubtedly become the center of the world's electrolytic aluminum industry. But whether it is raw materials - bauxite, alumina or products - electrolytic aluminum, China still has no control over pricing. In the first half of 2010, aluminum prices were operating below the cost price of electrolytic aluminum, causing Chinese electrolytic aluminum companies to agonize. In the future, we will face greater production scale and a greater demand market, and how to make ourselves stronger. Not only in terms of output, but also in the right to speak, the implementation of the world's leading electrolytic aluminum industry, China's electrolytic aluminum companies have a long way to go.
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