Next year, the solar industry will win big

Although many solar cell manufacturers strongly expect that the price of wafers will decline along with the downstream, many battery manufacturers also admitted that it is still very difficult to cut wafer prices at present, and in 2011, under the premise that demand is not pessimistic, There is a high probability that the solar energy industry chain will continue to “fat and lean”, and the prospective players will still face relatively large gains. In particular, they will be able to obtain relatively inexpensive materials or vertically integrated plants that extend their batteries up to silicon wafers.

With the solar cell prices in December, the contract price will follow a slight decline, the battery industry is also strongly looking forward to the decline in the price of wafers can be followed to reduce costs, but battery makers frankly, in view of the current situation, to shake the wafer The price is still difficult, unless there is a considerable demand and long-term trading relationship, have the opportunity to gain a little room for bargaining.

Solar cell manufacturers say that if we look at the end-market news, we will start to go into the traditional off-season in November. Original estimates including solar cell and silicon wafer prices should start to loosen, but the battery end will hardly increase from the 11th to the upside. In a difficult situation, the price began to decline slightly in December. Unexpectedly, the quotations on the wafer side were unshaken and the spot price of the polycrystalline silicon spot market remained high.

The battery industry estimates that due to the new capacity expansion of solar cells across the Taiwan Strait, due to the severe shortage of silicon wafers in 2010, many battery manufacturers will also prepare some materials according to the capacity ratio in case of shortage in 2011. If it continues, it will face the dilemma of having no material to produce, and estimating the actions of the downstream reserve inventory may be caused by ambiguity! The fab believes that it is not one of the reasons why the out-of-season effect and supply shortages continue.

Even so, the battery factory also frankly stated that if the end-user demand situation in 2011 is not pessimistic, the solar photovoltaic industry supply chain will continue its trend of “slimming down” in 2010. The main reason is that the production capacity of silicon wafers is far behind that of battery-end ones. The total production capacity, while the expansion of silicon wafers is not only the problem of insufficient equipment, but also includes the related supplies such as helium, silicon carbide and other shortages, I am afraid it is not a short period of time can be solved.

Because of the high probability of “fat and lean”, there are also big winners. In particular, there are polycrystalline silicon wafers or silicon wafer contracts with relative cost advantages or a considerable proportion of silicon wafers. The gross profit margin is relatively high.

The vertical integration case in 2010 was the most representative of the growth performance of Motech in the second quarter. The main reason for its analysis and growth is that it owns a considerable proportion of silicon wafers. Therefore, in 2011, it will focus on increasing the self-produced proportion of silicon wafers. Motech recently announced a new personnel order; in addition, vertical integration plants in the mainland, including Trina Solar and Yingli, are also considered to have more advantages in this area; of course, if demand is relatively pessimistic in 2011, the burden of vertically integrated plants is relatively more specialized. ? t big.

Under the premise of the same optimistic assumption, the profit performance of silicon wafer fabs in 2011 was considered to be more potential than that of battery factories. Taiwanese companies include Sino-American silicon, green energy, and Danone, but they still need to pay attention to polycrystalline silicon. The cost of purchasing materials includes mainland companies such as GCL-Poly, Jiangxi Levi, and Sunshine Energy.