Nickel forecast: there may be a rebound during the next week

The metal short-covering market ended, the US dollar rose sharply, the metal price rebounded, the nickel price weakened again, and the nickel fell below the $15,000/ton mark. The spot nickel price in the Shanghai market fell about 1,500 yuan/ton during the week. It is expected that next week, Lun Nickel will trade at a price of 14700-15300 USD/ton.

I. Analysis and prediction of the trend of nickel

1. Review of the trend of nickel

Lack of clear positive factors, the rising market brought by short covering, ended this week. During the week, the US dollar index rose sharply, and copper futures were once again sold. This week, London metal prices were under pressure, and Lun Nickel fell below $15,000/ton, and the transaction volume decreased. During the week, nickel stocks on the London Metal Exchange increased slightly.

In the news, China's economic data is weak, but the policy level's tolerance for the economic slowdown is increasing. The positive news is that in the second half of this week, Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to deepen the system reforms such as administrative examination and approval, and made clear instructions to some industries. We believe that the medium and long-term prospects of China's economy are to further promote market-oriented reforms. This has also become a consensus. The key lies in the determination and intensity of policy reform at the policy level. The recent statements of the policy will undoubtedly contribute to the confidence of the medium and long-term economic prospects. However, the reform is a long-term positive and has a limited effect on boosting short- and medium-term metal demand.

2. Nickel trend forecast

While seeing China's economic data weak, we should also see that terminal demand has not deteriorated significantly. After the sharp decline since the beginning of the year, metal prices have basically been able to reflect the reality of weak demand, and the short-term and short-term do not have a continuous decline. conditions of. Therefore, we judge that in the next one to two months, metal prices will maintain a range of fluctuations. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the news will be calm next week, and the nickel will be oscillated between 14700-15300 USD/ton. Spot traders can hold a small amount of goods, downstream manufacturers do not have to add a large amount of raw material inventory, domestic electronic disk is mainly based on bargain-hunting.

Second, the domestic market

1. Electrolytic nickel market

On May 15th, Jinchuan Group lowered the ex-factory price of electrolytic nickel slabs by 1,500 yuan/ton to 106,500 yuan/ton. The spot nickel price in Shanghai market fell this week. The market transaction price on Friday fell by 1,500 yuan/ton from last week. The price rose first and then fell. On Tuesday, the Shanghai market Jinchuan nickel rose to 107,800-108,000 yuan / ton, fell to 105,300-10,557 yuan / ton on Thursday, and rose 200-300 yuan / ton on Friday. Russian nickel in the Shanghai market rose to 106,800-10,700 yuan / ton on Tuesday, fell to 104,200-104,500 yuan / ton on Thursday, and also rose 200-300 yuan / ton on Friday.


Last week we mentioned that metal prices rebounded at the beginning of the month, and the trading atmosphere of the electrolytic nickel spot market improved slightly. Although the nickel price dropped little this week, the price weakened again, hitting traders' confidence, and the market trading atmosphere was once again suppressed this week. There were not many transactions in the week. In the first half of the week, due to the high ex-factory price of Jinchuan, some traders worried that after low-priced shipments, it was difficult to replenish low-priced goods. There were signs of reluctance to sell, and the spot price was slightly firm, but the transaction was suppressed. After the ex-factory price of Jinchuan was lowered, the willingness of traders to ship increased.

2. Nickel mine market

This week, the price of nickel ore is stable, and the price of miners is relatively strong. Most miners are not willing to supply at low prices. It is understood that a miner in Lianyungang said that the current price of NI 1.8% is 320 yuan / wet tons, but the actual transaction price Or it will be slightly lower, and the transaction is light. This week, the nickel ore market inquiry price has increased compared with the previous period, but most of them are to understand the market price, and there is no actual transaction market. The fundamental reason is that the contradiction between supply and demand is constantly increasing. The market for nickel ore in the market will continue to maintain its decline.


3. Nickel iron market

This week, the price of ferronickel was stable and the transaction was light. With the continuous low price of large steel mills, the willingness to stop production of ferronickel manufacturers continued to increase, and the operating rate continued to decline. It is understood that some steel mills have tentatively purchased ferronickel at a price of 900 yuan/nickel. However, at such a low price, manufacturers have no willingness to supply, the imbalance between supply and demand in the ferronickel market and the economic downturn, and the pattern of short-term continued weakness. It is difficult to change, and the future ferronickel may have further decline. At present, it cannot be considered as the bottom, and manufacturers are ready to do so.

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