The coal industry will enter a stable period of low speed

After the coal market experienced the longest continuous downturn in this century, the current market confidence has almost dropped to the bottom, and some people have a certain reason to worry about the serious overcapacity in the coal market and long into the buyer's market.

The top five concerns about the pressure on the coal industry are the first concerns about the future economic growth rate will fall back. In the 21st century, China's import and export trade has grown significantly year after year thanks to its favorable accession to the WTO. However, the global financial crisis that erupted in 2008 and the currently unresolved European debt crisis have completely disrupted the previous international economic division of labor. China's economic growth model driven by foreign trade has become increasingly unsustainable. At the same time, the resources and environmental pressures brought about by the rapid and extensive growth of the domestic economy are increasingly requiring the pace of growth to slow down and change the mode of growth. Therefore, compared with the past ten years, the market is generally concerned that the overall economic growth rate in China will slow down in the future.

The second concern is that the total energy consumption control and energy structure adjustment will restrict coal demand. In the face of increasing carbon emission pressures and increasingly prominent energy security issues, relevant government departments are increasingly aware of the need to control total energy consumption. At the same time, they are paying more attention to the development of new and renewable energy sources and reducing traditional fossil energy sources. In particular, the proportion of coal in the total primary energy consumption. The “12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development” clearly states that in the future, the implementation of dual control over energy consumption intensity and total consumption will be implemented. In 2015, the total national energy consumption will be controlled at 4 billion tons of standard coal. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will be in 2010. The 8.6% increase to 11.4%, and the proportion of coal consumption is reduced to about 65%. The total energy consumption control and structural adjustment of energy consumption may pose double constraints on coal demand.

The third concern is the continued release of domestic coal production capacity. Benefiting from the continued strong coal demand and the continuous increase in coal prices in previous years, coal companies generally have strong profitability and high investment enthusiasm. The fixed assets investment in the coal industry continues to maintain a rapid growth momentum. Statistics show that from 2002 to 2011, the year-on-year growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the coal mining and washing industry remained above 23%. According to the calculation of the mine construction period of about three years, it is still possible to concentrate the release of coal production capacity in the next two to three years.

The fourth issue is the continued influx of imported coal. Since the net import of coal was first realized in 2009, during the three years from 2010 to 2012, China's coal imports have increased by 52 million tons annually. In 2012, China’s total coal imports reached 28.851 million tons, an increase of 66 million tons over the previous year, an increase of 29.8%. At the same time, due to the continuous decline in exports, net coal imports in 2012 increased by 71.54 million tons from the previous year, an increase of 34.4%. The large influx of coal imports has increased domestic supply and has caused a greater impact on the supply and demand balance in the coal market.

The fifth is to worry about the pressure of domestic environmental protection plus the General Assembly to restrict coal demand. Since the beginning of this year, haze has frequently been encountered in most areas of the country, and the reason for the haze has been due to weather factors. However, heating boilers burning coal, industrial pollutants, and vehicle exhaust are the culprits. It can be imagined that under the pressure of environmental protection, the future of urban heating boiler fuel will inevitably shift from coal to relatively environmentally friendly natural gas, and coal demand may be subject to certain restrictions.

Prospects for the coal industry do not need to be overly pessimistic. As the above analysis shows, the prospects of the coal industry will not be too bad, and it is expected to enter a relatively stable development period at a low speed in the future.

First, China is currently in the process of industrialization and urbanization. There is still room for greater growth in overall energy demand in the future. After years of rapid development, China’s infrastructure such as expressways, high-speed railways, and large cities’ public services have greatly improved, and industrialization has also entered a higher stage. However, it does not match with the industrialization process. At present, the level of urbanization in China is still low and there is huge room for development. In the future, with the more coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization, the Chinese economy is expected to continue to maintain a rapid growth momentum, and the total energy demand still has a large room for growth.

Second, the fundamental position of coal in China's energy structure is difficult to change for a long time. With the increase in total energy demand, coal will also have some room for growth. At present, under the pressure of carbon emissions and environmental pressure, new energy sources such as photovoltaics, wind power, and nuclear power, as well as non-traditional fossil fuels such as shale gas and coalbed methane, have strong development momentum. The relevant departments are also continuously increasing policy support for the development and utilization of these energy sources. Strength. However, from the current point of view, the large-scale development and utilization of these energy sources have some problems. It is believed that with the advancement of technology and policy adjustments in the future, the problems of new energy development and utilization will be gradually solved or mitigated, but this will take time. In the short term, coal, oil, and natural gas will continue to be the main force of China's energy consumption. As the total energy consumption continues to grow, coal, which is the basis of energy, will inevitably have some room for growth.

Third, coal is not only an energy source, but also an important chemical raw material. Under the “rich coal, lack of oil, and low gas” energy structure, gradually using coal chemical industry to replace part of petrochemical and natural gas chemical industry meets the optimal use of resources. Coal can be used not only for heating, heating, and power generation, but also for energy and economic development. It can also be used as a chemical raw material to produce various organic chemical products. In China's “rich coal, lack of oil, less gas” energy structure, the use of coal instead of oil and natural gas as raw materials to produce various chemical products is conducive to the effective use of resources, the current advancement of coal chemical industry is in full swing from another point of view This point. At present, the shortage of water resources in major coal-producing areas, environmental constraints, long-term bottlenecks in railway transport, and low technological level all constrain the development of coal chemical industry, and coal chemical development has encountered many setbacks. In the future, with the further expansion of the downstream market, the relative advantages of coal chemical industry will be further manifested, the bottleneck of railway transportation will gradually be broken, and coal chemical industry is still expected to have more room for development. The demand for coal for chemical industry has great potential.

Fourth, when the coal market continues to slump, its internal adjustment mechanism will gradually play a role. The industry's investment in fixed assets will fall, which will affect the future release of coal production capacity and production, and will prompt the market supply and demand to rebalance. In 2012, due to weak demand, coal prices fell sharply, and the growth rate of investment in the coal industry dropped to 7.7% after a sustained growth of 23% or more in ten consecutive years. The downward trend is evident. In addition to market pressure, due to the decline in coal prices, corporate profitability and solvency weakened, bank credits also tend to be cautious, which will lead to tight corporate funds, further affect the investment progress and delay the construction process of projects under construction.

Fifth, if China's coal demand weakens in the future and coal prices no longer rise sharply, investment in the coal-producing countries of major coal-producing countries and export countries will also slow down, and imports to the international market for further increase by China will gradually decrease. Since 2001, more than 80% of the cumulative global coal demand has come from China. It is because of the rapid and rapid growth of domestic coal demand that China has rapidly changed from a net coal exporter to a net importer. At the same time, it has caused an imbalance in supply and demand of coal in the international market and has driven both domestic and foreign coal prices to rise. One of the results of the rapid rise in international coal prices is that major coal-producing countries continue to increase investment in the coal industry and increase coal supply in the international market. Just think, if China's coal demand weakens in the future, the coal price rise will be insufficiently motivated, and major coal-producing countries will inevitably slow down the pace of investment. In the future, the amount of imports available for China in the international market will gradually decrease.

Sixth, it is necessary to strengthen environmental protection and reduce pollutant emissions. It must also be done, but in the absence of adequate oil, natural gas and other alternative energy sources, coal will have to be used for a long period of time. Statistics show that coal-fired power generation and heat supply are important sources of NO x, NO x, and dust pollution. The power generation and heating industries have created nearly 60% of industrial CO 2 and over 80% of industrial smoke, most of which are Pollutants come from coal-fired power generation and heating. If coal-fired power generation and heating are all suppressed, we believe that we will definitely stay away from us and we will have a blue sky and fresh air. However, the current economic and social development of energy demand and energy structure determines that the use of other fuels to replace coal on a large scale to generate electricity and heat is not realistic, and coal must continue to be used. In the future, as demand increases, coal-fired power generation and heating Will increase further. In this case, the best way is to strengthen the control of the polluting enterprises' sewage, such as the mandatory requirements of coal-fired heat, electricity companies to install flue gas dust removal and off-sale equipment, and strengthen supervision, while encouraging the community to conduct supervision and management together .

Seventh, the government has a relatively high level of intervention in the coal industry and many times can influence coal supply through policies or administrative interventions. The coal industry is a typical resource industry. As the government continues to strengthen the control of energy and resources, the integration of resources and mergers and reorganizations of the coal industry in the future will continue to advance. The degree of industrial concentration will continue to increase, and large enterprises will have resources and markets. The control power is expected to increase further. In addition, coal mine safety has always been the focus of safety production. Supervision and management of coal mine safety production is always one of the important means for the government to regulate the coal market, and it will continue to play its role in the future.